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CAREER: Numerical Modeling of Volcanic Flank Instability Processes

职业：火山侧面不稳定过程的数值模拟

基本信息

批准号：
1945417
负责人：
Christelle Wauthier
金额：
$ 50万
依托单位：
Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2020-08-01 至 2025-07-31
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1945417&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
CAREER Numerical Modeling Volcanic Flank

项目摘要

Massive collapse of volcanic flanks is among the largest mass-wasting events on the planet and can evolve into energetic lateral blasts and spawn dangerous and destructive tsunami waves. Despite this hazard, the processes leading or aggravating the risk of flank collapse remain poorly understood. All volcanoes behave differently and the reasons behind initiation and persistence or arrest of flank collapse need to be explored and modeled accurately for a wide range of volcanoes affected by distinct flank processes. An initial suite of type-volcanoes comprises Kilauea (Hawaii), Piton de la Fournaise (France) and Anak Krakatau (Indonesia) for which extensive observations are available and where contrasting modes of recent failures are evident. This project will support an early-career, female assistant professor and her diverse research group to develop a suite of CAREER research and educational tools for investigating natural hazards and volcano processes. The project will fund two graduate students at Penn State, including a female international student, who will be educated in data processing, analysis, interpretation and process-based modeling. The research will be integrated in educational modules to develop FE models representing compelling examples of volcanic collapse and seismic unrest through engaging case studies. Undergraduate students will participate through senior theses with UNAVCO RESESS underrepresented interns additionally hosted at Penn State. The ensemble goal is to generate educational resources and teaching materials for courses in natural hazards, volcanology, and fault mechanics, including a large-enrollment General Education class for non-science majors. The work will exhance existing collaborations at Penn State, USGS, South Dakota School of Mines, Université de Savoie, and Piton de la Fournaise Observatory/IPGP France. Expected project outcomes have the potential to illuminate key mechanisms triggering and sustaining the massive collapse of volcano flanks and their associated and potentially catastrophic air- and sea-borne hazards.This CAREER proposal addresses why the style, behavior, and timing of the cyclic growth then destruction of volcanic edifices varies across such a wide spectrum? It focuses on flank collapse on ocean island volcanoes and in using modeling to unravel the observed complexity in data sets representing a spectrum of type volcanoes. Specifically, this work will explore how styles of collapse are primarily controlled by the evolved size, steepness, structure, and strength of the edifice, in turn conditioned by rates of magma supply and composition and modulated by the aspect and slip interface properties of the substrate. Of key interest is how combinations of these characteristics define the unique signature of the anticipated collapse. Finite Element (FE) models will reproduce the spectrum of observed behaviors at ocean island volcanoes, defining key controls. An integrated study of geophysical observations will constrain process-based models of volcanoes affected by flank instability. To develop an understanding of how growth and collapse of ocean island volcanoes vary in style and timing, the researcher will benchmark and apply novel numerical modeling strategies using FE models for flank motion, with a focus on a complementary spectrum of volcano genetic types, sizes, and flank instability behaviors. An initial suite of type-volcanoes comprises Kilauea (Hawaii), Piton de la Fournaise (France) and Anak Krakatau (Indonesia) spanning large-to-small, shallow-to-steep and shield- to strato-volcano. A new numerical modeling strategy will be developed and benchmarked through synthetic tests, then applied to recent episodes of flank failure for a spectrum of volcanoes. The approach is interdisciplinary, relying on cutting-edge FE numerical modeling approaches to model deformation and failure and constrained by seismic and geodetic (ground-based and InSAR) data spanning multiple spatial and temporal scales. Mechanical properties of flank materials and the role of heterogeneities will be addressed using geophysical and geological observations, enabling key transient events promoting progress to collapse to be projected and defined.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

火山侧翼的大规模坍塌是地球上最大的质量浪费事件之一，可能演变成能量巨大的侧向爆炸，并产生危险和破坏性的海啸波。尽管存在这种危险，但导致或加剧侧翼塌陷风险的过程仍然知之甚少。所有火山的行为不同，背后的原因启动和持续或逮捕侧翼崩溃需要进行探索和建模，准确地为广泛的火山不同的侧翼过程的影响。最初的一套典型火山包括基拉韦厄火山（夏威夷）、福奈斯火山（法国）和阿纳喀拉喀托火山（印度尼西亚），对这些火山进行了广泛的观测，并在最近的失败中发现了明显的对比模式。该项目将支持职业生涯早期的女助理教授和她的多元化研究小组开发一套职业研究和教育工具，用于调查自然灾害和火山过程。该项目将资助宾夕法尼亚州立大学的两名研究生，其中包括一名女国际学生，他们将接受数据处理，分析，解释和基于过程的建模方面的教育。该研究将被整合到教育模块中，以开发FE模型，通过引人入胜的案例研究来代表火山崩塌和地震动荡的令人信服的例子。本科生将通过高级论文参加UNAVCO RESESS代表性不足的实习生，另外在宾夕法尼亚州立大学举办。总体目标是为自然灾害，火山学和断层力学课程提供教育资源和教材，包括非科学专业的大招生通识教育课程。这项工作将加强宾夕法尼亚州立大学、美国地质勘探局、南达科他州矿业学院、萨瓦大学和Piton de la Fournaise天文台/IPGP法国的现有合作。预期的项目成果有可能阐明触发和维持火山侧翼大规模崩塌及其相关的潜在灾难性空中和海上危害的关键机制。这份职业提案解决了为什么火山建筑物的周期性生长和破坏的风格、行为和时机在如此广泛的范围内有所不同？它的重点是侧翼崩溃的海洋岛屿火山和使用建模来解开观察到的复杂性的数据集代表了一系列的类型火山。具体而言，这项工作将探讨如何风格的崩溃主要是由演化的大小，陡度，结构和强度的ediglium控制，反过来又由岩浆供应和成分的速率和调制的方面和滑动界面特性的基板。关键的兴趣是这些特征的组合如何定义预期崩溃的独特特征。有限元（FE）模型将再现在海洋岛屿火山观测到的行为谱，定义关键控制。对地球物理观测的综合研究将限制受侧翼不稳定影响的火山的基于过程的模型。为了了解海洋岛屿火山的增长和崩溃如何在风格和时间上发生变化，研究人员将使用FE模型对侧翼运动进行基准测试和应用新的数值建模策略，重点关注火山成因类型，大小和侧翼不稳定行为的互补谱。最初的一套典型火山包括基拉韦厄（夏威夷），Piton de la Fournaise（法国）和Anak Krakatau（印度尼西亚），从大到小，从浅到陡，从盾到层火山。将开发一种新的数值模拟策略，并通过合成测试进行基准测试，然后将其应用于最近发生的一系列火山侧翼失效事件。该方法是跨学科的，依靠先进的有限元数值建模方法来模拟变形和破坏，并受到跨越多个空间和时间尺度的地震和大地测量（地基和干涉合成孔径雷达）数据的约束。侧翼材料的机械性能和不均匀性的作用将通过地球物理和地质观测来解决，从而能够预测和定义促进坍塌进展的关键瞬态事件。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。