CAREER: Climate-change vulnerability in the Marshall Islands: learning from the past & inspiring a new future

马绍尔群岛共和国（RMI）的低洼岛屿预计到2040年将由于海水淹没其饮用水供应而无法居住。几个因素威胁着RMI的淡水资源。其中包括当地海平面的高上升率、每年的海平面极端事件、暴风雨期间的洪水和干旱。此外，热带雨带的季节性北移对每年RMI供水的更新至关重要。规划这个和其他太平洋低洼岛国的未来，需要更好地了解热带太平洋对气候变化的反应。这些反应包括温度、风、降水和海平面的变化。本研究的研究目标是利用来自珊瑚、沉积物和模型的气候数据来记录热带太平洋对过去自然气候变化的反应。该职业计划的综合教育和研究方面将建立在与生物圈2号（B2）、图森联合学区（TUSD）和马绍尔群岛海洋资源管理局（MIMRA）的现有合作伙伴关系的基础上。这项研究将提高我们对马绍尔群岛干旱和盐水洪水风险的理解，培养下一代科学家，并为改善未来提供解决方案。该CAREER项目将把高分辨率记录网络扩展到赤道太平洋西北部，开发来自马绍尔群岛共和国（RMI）的第一个珊瑚古气候重建。这些珊瑚记录提供了每月的温度、盐度和风况的历史，在这个数据贫乏的地区尤为重要。此外，RMI位于太平洋年代际涛动的轴线和热带辐合带（ITCZ）的北边界，为评估其气候影响提供了一个关键的端元。最后，西风事件在该地区很常见，并导致严重的沿海洪水，使这些地点有希望应用一种新的风代理，以提高我们对信风变率和淹没风险的理解。这个CAREER项目将利用来自活珊瑚和化石珊瑚巨石的新的和现有的岩心，在RMI中开发第一个基于珊瑚的ITCZ变动性重建（目标1），上一千年的水文气候（目标2）和淹没风险（目标3），并评估过去一千年的太平洋水文气候动力学（目标4）。因此，这些结果将提高我们对自然和人为气候变化下热带太平洋水文气候和水资源（如干旱和洪水风险）的理解。这个综合的科学和教育项目也将为美国和RMI的研究生，本科生和K-12学生提供独特的研究和教育机会。通过以解决方案为导向的渐进式合作学习活动，该项目将把亚利桑那州和马绍尔社区聚集在一起，开发和评估新的K-12教育模块，培训多样化的下一代海洋科学家群体，并分享强有力的马绍尔故事，以促进解决方案的紧迫性。这些模块将创建与3D打印珊瑚的动手活动，以及气候变化下珊瑚礁和沿海社区的交互式虚拟现实之旅。为了使这些教育活动产生最大的影响，这些资源和成果将在专业发展研讨会上传播，供澳门科技大学和RMI学校的教师使用。这些材料还将被整合到B2网站和海洋教育项目中（每年有超过10万名游客和1万多名K-12学生），并发布在全国教育工作者的卡尔顿前沿网站上。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Low-lying islands of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) are projected to become uninhabitable by 2040 due to seawater flooding of their drinking water supply. Several factors threaten the freshwater resources of the RMI. These include high rates of local sea-level rise, year-to-year sea-level extremes, flooding during storms, and droughts. In addition, the seasonal northward shift of the tropical rain belt is critical for renewing the RMI water supply each year. Planning for the future in this and other low-lying island nations in the Pacific requires an improved understanding of the response of the tropical Pacific to climate change. Those responses include changes in temperatures, winds, precipitation, and sea level. The research goal of this study is to use climate data from corals, sediments, and models to document the response of the tropical Pacific to past natural climate change. The integrated education and research aspects of this CAREER program will build on existing partnerships with the Biosphere 2 (B2), Tucson Unified School District (TUSD), and the Marshall Islands Marine Resource Authority (MIMRA). This study will improve our understanding of the risks of drought and salt-water flooding in the Marshall Islands, train the next generation of scientists, and inspire solutions for an improved future. This CAREER program will expand the network of high-resolution records to the northwest equatorial Pacific Ocean, developing the first coral paleoclimate reconstructions from the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). These coral records, which provide a monthly history of temperature, salinity, and wind conditions, are particularly critical in this data-poor region. Further, RMI sits on the axis of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and at the northern limit of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), providing a critical end member for assessing their climate impact. Finally, westerly wind events are common in this region and drive severe coastal flooding, making these sites promising candidates for the application of a novel wind proxy to improve our understanding of trade-wind variability and inundation risk. This CAREER program will utilize new and existing cores from living and fossil coral boulders to develop the first coral-based reconstructions of ITCZ variability (Objective 1), last-millennium hydroclimate (Objective 2) and inundation risk (Objective 3) in the RMI, and assess Pacific hydroclimate dynamics over the last millennium (Objective 4). These results will therefore improve our understanding of tropical Pacific hydroclimate and water resources (e.g., drought and inundation risk) under natural and anthropogenic climate changes. This integrated science and education program will also provide unique research and educational opportunities for graduate, undergraduate, and K-12 students in both the USA and RMI. Through progressive and cooperative solution-oriented learning activities, this program will bring together Arizona and Marshallese communities to develop and evaluate new K-12 educational modules, train a diverse group of next generation marine scientists, and share powerful Marshallese stories to promote urgency for solutions. These modules will create hands-on activities with 3D printed corals, and interactive virtual reality tours of reefs and coastal communities under a changing climate. To maximize the impact of these educational activities, the resources and outcomes will be disseminated at professional development workshops for teachers in TUSD and RMI schools. The material will also be integrated into the B2 website and marine educational program (reaching over 100,000+ visitors and 10,000+ K-12 students each year) and posted on Carleton Cutting Edge website for educators nationwide.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.