CAREER: Climate-change vulnerability in the Marshall Islands: learning from the past & inspiring a new future

职业：马绍尔群岛的气候变化脆弱性：汲取过去的教训

• 批准号: 1945479
• 负责人: Diane Thompson
• 金额: $ 89.11万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-06-01 至 2025-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1945479&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Climate; change; vulnerability; Marshall

Low-lying islands of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) are projected to become uninhabitable by 2040 due to seawater flooding of their drinking water supply. Several factors threaten the freshwater resources of the RMI. These include high rates of local sea-level rise, year-to-year sea-level extremes, flooding during storms, and droughts. In addition, the seasonal northward shift of the tropical rain belt is critical for renewing the RMI water supply each year. Planning for the future in this and other low-lying island nations in the Pacific requires an improved understanding of the response of the tropical Pacific to climate change. Those responses include changes in temperatures, winds, precipitation, and sea level. The research goal of this study is to use climate data from corals, sediments, and models to document the response of the tropical Pacific to past natural climate change. The integrated education and research aspects of this CAREER program will build on existing partnerships with the Biosphere 2 (B2), Tucson Unified School District (TUSD), and the Marshall Islands Marine Resource Authority (MIMRA). This study will improve our understanding of the risks of drought and salt-water flooding in the Marshall Islands, train the next generation of scientists, and inspire solutions for an improved future. This CAREER program will expand the network of high-resolution records to the northwest equatorial Pacific Ocean, developing the first coral paleoclimate reconstructions from the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). These coral records, which provide a monthly history of temperature, salinity, and wind conditions, are particularly critical in this data-poor region. Further, RMI sits on the axis of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and at the northern limit of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), providing a critical end member for assessing their climate impact. Finally, westerly wind events are common in this region and drive severe coastal flooding, making these sites promising candidates for the application of a novel wind proxy to improve our understanding of trade-wind variability and inundation risk. This CAREER program will utilize new and existing cores from living and fossil coral boulders to develop the first coral-based reconstructions of ITCZ variability (Objective 1), last-millennium hydroclimate (Objective 2) and inundation risk (Objective 3) in the RMI, and assess Pacific hydroclimate dynamics over the last millennium (Objective 4). These results will therefore improve our understanding of tropical Pacific hydroclimate and water resources (e.g., drought and inundation risk) under natural and anthropogenic climate changes. This integrated science and education program will also provide unique research and educational opportunities for graduate, undergraduate, and K-12 students in both the USA and RMI. Through progressive and cooperative solution-oriented learning activities, this program will bring together Arizona and Marshallese communities to develop and evaluate new K-12 educational modules, train a diverse group of next generation marine scientists, and share powerful Marshallese stories to promote urgency for solutions. These modules will create hands-on activities with 3D printed corals, and interactive virtual reality tours of reefs and coastal communities under a changing climate. To maximize the impact of these educational activities, the resources and outcomes will be disseminated at professional development workshops for teachers in TUSD and RMI schools. The material will also be integrated into the B2 website and marine educational program (reaching over 100,000+ visitors and 10,000+ K-12 students each year) and posted on Carleton Cutting Edge website for educators nationwide.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

预计到2040年，马歇尔群岛共和国的低洼岛屿将因海水淹没其饮用水供应而无法居住。 有几个因素威胁着马绍尔群岛的淡水资源。这些因素包括当地海平面的高上升率，年复一年的极端海平面，风暴期间的洪水和干旱。 此外，热带雨带的季节性北移对于每年更新马绍尔群岛供水至关重要。 要规划这个国家和太平洋其他低地岛屿国家的未来，就需要更好地了解热带太平洋对气候变化的反应。这些反应包括温度、风、降水和海平面的变化。 本研究的研究目标是利用珊瑚、沉积物和模型的气候数据来记录热带太平洋对过去自然气候变化的响应。 该职业计划的综合教育和研究方面将建立在与生物圈2号（B2），图森联合学区（TUSD）和马歇尔群岛海洋资源管理局（MIMRA）的现有合作伙伴关系的基础上。这项研究将提高我们对马歇尔群岛干旱和盐水洪水风险的认识，培训下一代科学家，并为改善未来提供解决方案。该CAREER计划将把高分辨率记录网络扩展到西北赤道太平洋，开发马歇尔群岛共和国（RMI）的第一个珊瑚古气候重建。这些珊瑚记录提供了每月的温度、盐度和风力条件，在这个数据贫乏的地区尤其重要。此外，马绍尔群岛位于太平洋十年涛动轴和热带辐合带（ITCZ）的北方界限，为评估其气候影响提供了关键的终端成员。最后，西风事件在这一地区很常见，并导致严重的沿海洪水，使这些网站有希望的候选人的应用一种新的风代理，以提高我们的了解贸易风的变化和洪水风险。 该CAREER计划将利用新的和现有的活珊瑚和化石珊瑚石的核心，开发第一个基于珊瑚的ITCZ变异性（目标1），上千年水文气候（目标2）和淹没风险（目标3）在RMI重建，并评估太平洋水文气候动力学在过去的千年（目标4）。因此，这些结果将提高我们对热带太平洋水文气候和水资源的理解（例如，干旱和洪水风险）。 这个综合科学和教育计划还将为美国和马绍尔群岛的研究生，本科生和K-12学生提供独特的研究和教育机会。通过渐进和合作的解决方案为导向的学习活动，该计划将汇集亚利桑那州和马绍尔群岛社区开发和评估新的K-12教育模块，培训下一代海洋科学家的多元化群体，并分享强大的马绍尔故事，以促进解决方案的紧迫性。 这些模块将创建3D打印珊瑚的实践活动，以及在不断变化的气候下珊瑚礁和沿海社区的交互式虚拟现实图尔斯之旅。 为了最大限度地扩大这些教育活动的影响，将在为坦桑尼亚联合共和国和马绍尔群岛学校教师举办的专业发展讲习班上传播这些资源和成果。该材料还将被整合到B2网站和海洋教育计划（每年有超过100，000+的访问者和10，000+的K-12学生），并张贴在卡尔顿尖端网站上，供全国各地的教育工作者使用。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

项目成果

Coral‐Based Sea Surface Salinity Reconstructions and the Role of Observational Uncertainties in Inferred Variability and Trends

• DOI: 10.1029/2021pa004371
• 发表时间: 2022-05
• 期刊: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Emma V. Reed;Diane M. Thompson;K. Anchukaitis

Fidelity of the Coral Sr/Ca Paleothermometer Following Heat Stress in the Northern Galápagos

加拉帕戈斯北部热应激后珊瑚 Sr/Ca 古温度计的保真度

• DOI: 10.1029/2021pa004323
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Cheung, Anson H.;Cole, Julia E.;Thompson, Diane M.;Vetter, Lael;Jimenez, Gloria;Tudhope, Alexander W.
• 通讯作者: Tudhope, Alexander W.

A mechanistic investigation of the coral Mn/Ca-based trade-wind proxy at Kiritimati

Kiritimati 珊瑚锰/钙信风代理的机械研究

• DOI: 10.1016/j.gca.2022.04.030
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Chapman, Alice U.;Thompson, Diane M.;Hlohowskyj, Stephan R.;Carilli, Jessica E.;Gordon, Gwyneth;Goepfert, Tyler J.;Sayani, Hussein R.;Marchitto, Thomas M.;Cobb, Kim M.
• 通讯作者: Cobb, Kim M.

Marginal Reefs Under Stress: Physiological Limits Render Galápagos Corals Susceptible to Ocean Acidification and Thermal Stress

边缘珊瑚礁面临压力：生理限制使加拉帕戈斯珊瑚容易受到海洋酸化和热应力的影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2021av000509
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: AGU Advances
• 影响因子: 8.4
• 作者: Thompson, Diane;McCulloch, Malcolm;Cole, Julia E.;Reed, Emma V.;D’Olivo, Juan P.;Dyez, Kelsey;Lofverstrom, Marcus;Lough, Janice;Cantin, Neal;Tudhope, Alexander W.
• 通讯作者: Tudhope, Alexander W.

Environmental records from coral skeletons: A decade of novel insights and innovation

• DOI: 10.1002/wcc.745
• 发表时间: 2021-10
• 期刊: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
• 作者: D. Thompson