Advancing Genocide Forecasting: New Definition, Methods, and Forecasts

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The project intends to develop a new method of forecasting to improve the international community’s and Australia's ability to anticipate and prevent genocide. The project is designed to build on work in the Atrocity Forecasting Project since 2009, and to bring together political science and computer science. To address well-known problems the project plans to reconceptualise genocide as extreme targeted mass killing, increasing definitional clarity and data reliability. Combining a better concept with cutting-edge computer science forecasting approaches, the project aims to produce new annual forecasts, pushing accuracy further. Expected project outcomes will provide new understanding and a better tool for genocide prevention.