Doctoral Dissertation Research:Constructive and Destructive Exit: Understanding Treaty Withdrawal

博士论文研究：建设性和破坏性退出：理解条约退出

• 批准号: 2016937
• 负责人: Geoffrey Wallace
• 金额: $ 2.1万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-08-01 至 2022-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2016937&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Constructive; Destructive

The greatest challenges of the 21st century are cross-national, including the environment, migration, epidemics, inequality, and financial corruption. As a result, it is critical to better understand the factors that enable and imperil international cooperation. The study of treaty exit will grant us additional purchase on why international law influences the behavior of some countries more than others and how design influences treaty durability. First, by shedding light on the effect of treaty design on exit, this project will help future policy makers consider exit risk when designing and negotiating agreements. Second, this research will help inform policy makers who are invested in global governance understand how concerned they should be about exit from international agreements. Finally, this research will help policy makers understand the conditions that lead to exit and the effects of exit.Despite a wealth of literature on treaty commitment and compliance, we know very little about treaty exit. This project explores a missing stage in the treaty lifecycle, and illuminates differences in the strength of international law across states. To better understand historic patterns of treaty exit and the factors that contribute to them, this project leverages a combination of large-N analysis of treaty exits over the last hundred years, text-as-data supervised machine learning analysis of treaty design, and elite interviews. Cases include exits from the International Criminal Court, and from several International Labor Organization conventions that seek to protect women through restricting workplace participation, and the U.S. exits from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Paris Agreement. The resulting data will be useful to other researchers interested in international cooperation or in design differences across treaties or over time and may enable further research on the relationship between treaty design and effectiveness.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

世纪最大的挑战是跨国性的，包括环境、移民、流行病、不平等和金融腐败。因此，必须更好地了解促成和危害国际合作的因素。对条约退出的研究将使我们更多地了解为什么国际法对一些国家的行为的影响比对其他国家的影响更大，以及设计如何影响条约的持久性。 首先，通过阐明条约设计对退出的影响，本项目将有助于未来的政策制定者在设计和谈判协议时考虑退出风险。 其次，这项研究将有助于让投资于全球治理的政策制定者了解他们应该如何关注退出国际协议。 最后，这项研究将有助于政策制定者了解导致退出的条件和退出的影响。尽管有大量关于条约承诺和遵守的文献，我们对条约退出知之甚少。 该项目探讨了条约生命周期中缺失的阶段，并阐明了各国之间国际法强度的差异。 为了更好地了解条约退出的历史模式及其影响因素，该项目结合了对过去一百年条约退出的大N分析、对条约设计的文本即数据监督机器学习分析以及精英访谈。 案例包括退出国际刑事法院，退出国际劳工组织的几项公约，这些公约试图通过限制工作场所的参与来保护妇女，以及美国退出《中程核力量条约》和《巴黎协定》。 由此产生的数据将有助于其他研究人员在国际合作或在设计差异的条约或随着时间的推移，并可能使进一步研究之间的关系条约的设计和effectiveness.This奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得的支持，通过评估使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。