Doctoral Dissertation Research:Constructive and Destructive Exit: Understanding Treaty Withdrawal

21世纪最大的挑战是跨国的，包括环境、移民、流行病、不平等和金融腐败。因此，必须更好地了解促进和危及国际合作的因素。对条约退出的研究将使我们进一步了解为什么国际法对一些国家的行为比其他国家的行为影响更大，以及设计如何影响条约的持久性。首先，通过阐明条约设计对退出的影响，该项目将帮助未来的政策制定者在设计和谈判协议时考虑退出风险。其次，这项研究将帮助投资于全球治理的政策制定者了解他们应该对退出国际协议感到多么担忧。最后，这项研究将帮助政策制定者了解导致退出的条件和退出的影响。尽管有大量关于条约承诺和遵守的文献，但我们对条约退出的了解很少。这个项目探索了条约生命周期中缺失的一个阶段，并阐明了各国国际法力量的差异。为了更好地了解条约退出的历史模式和促成这些模式的因素，该项目结合了对过去一百年条约退出的大N分析、对条约设计的文本作为数据的监督机器学习分析以及精英访谈。这些案例包括退出国际刑事法院，退出几项寻求通过限制工作场所参与来保护女性的国际劳工组织公约，以及美国退出《中程核力量条约》和《巴黎协定》。所得到的数据将对其他对国际合作或条约间或随时间变化的设计差异感兴趣的研究人员有用，并可能使进一步研究条约设计与有效性之间的关系。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The greatest challenges of the 21st century are cross-national, including the environment, migration, epidemics, inequality, and financial corruption. As a result, it is critical to better understand the factors that enable and imperil international cooperation. The study of treaty exit will grant us additional purchase on why international law influences the behavior of some countries more than others and how design influences treaty durability. First, by shedding light on the effect of treaty design on exit, this project will help future policy makers consider exit risk when designing and negotiating agreements. Second, this research will help inform policy makers who are invested in global governance understand how concerned they should be about exit from international agreements. Finally, this research will help policy makers understand the conditions that lead to exit and the effects of exit.Despite a wealth of literature on treaty commitment and compliance, we know very little about treaty exit. This project explores a missing stage in the treaty lifecycle, and illuminates differences in the strength of international law across states. To better understand historic patterns of treaty exit and the factors that contribute to them, this project leverages a combination of large-N analysis of treaty exits over the last hundred years, text-as-data supervised machine learning analysis of treaty design, and elite interviews. Cases include exits from the International Criminal Court, and from several International Labor Organization conventions that seek to protect women through restricting workplace participation, and the U.S. exits from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Paris Agreement. The resulting data will be useful to other researchers interested in international cooperation or in design differences across treaties or over time and may enable further research on the relationship between treaty design and effectiveness.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.