Trade and Global Economic Shocks: A Network Perspective

贸易和全球经济冲击：网络视角

• 批准号: 2018267
• 负责人: Michael Adetayo Olabisi
• 金额: $ 7.5万
• 依托单位: Michigan State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2025-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2018267&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Trade; Global; Economic; Shocks; Network

Fluctuations in economic growth in foreign countries affect the U.S. economy primarily through trade; this issue will become increasingly important as US trade with emerging markets, which tend to be volatile, increases. This research project will study how fluctuations in economic activities in emerging economies affect total economic activity, employment, incomes, and distribution of income in the United States. The focus of this research is on demand shocks from emerging economies, and the mechanisms through which these demand changes in emerging countries affect economic activities in the US. Previous studies of the effects of economic fluctuations in foreign countries on the US have focused on supply side; this is one of the few studies that focuses on fluctuations in demand in emerging economies. As the US’s share of trade with emerging economies increase, fluctuations in economic activities in other countries will increasingly become important in US economic outcomes. Th results of this research can help the US better manage its international economic relationships.This research project will use a network based framework to investigate the business cycle effects of demand shocks in emerging economies on the US economy and the mechanisms through which these effects occur. The model is an extension of Charney’s (2014) trade model to explain growth at the intensive margin. The main innovation is to introduction of trade growth in order to provide much richer insights into how economic fluctuations in the US may be driven by trade and growth dynamics. The model is estimated using data from sector-level input output tables, World Input-Output Database, firm level trade data and product level aggregate trade data. The possibility of US business cycles emanating from demand shocks in emerging economies will become important in the future as the share of US trade with these countries increases. The results of this research can help the US better manage its international economic relationships.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

外国经济增长的波动主要通过贸易影响美国经济；随着美国与往往波动较大的新兴市场的贸易增加，这个问题将变得越来越重要。这项研究项目将研究新兴经济体经济活动的波动如何影响美国的总体经济活动、就业、收入和收入分配。这项研究的重点是新兴经济体的需求冲击，以及新兴国家的这些需求变化影响美国经济活动的机制。此前有关外国经济波动对美国影响的研究主要集中在供应面；这是为数不多的关注新兴经济体需求波动的研究之一。随着美国在与新兴经济体的贸易中所占份额的增加，其他国家经济活动的波动对美国经济结果的影响将越来越重要。这项研究的结果可以帮助美国更好地管理其国际经济关系。本研究项目将使用基于网络的框架来调查新兴经济体需求冲击对美国经济的商业周期影响，以及这些影响发生的机制。该模型是Charney(2014)贸易模型的扩展，以解释密集边际增长。主要的创新是引入贸易增长，以便为美国经济波动可能如何由贸易和增长动力驱动提供更丰富的见解。该模型使用部门级投入产出表、世界投入产出数据库、公司级贸易数据和产品级综合贸易数据中的数据进行估计。随着美国对新兴经济体的贸易份额上升，未来美国经济周期由新兴经济体需求冲击引发的可能性将变得重要。这项研究的结果可以帮助美国更好地管理其国际经济关系。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。