A Granular Framework for Assessing the Incidence of Local Economic Shocks

越来越多的精细空间数据对传统经济模型提出了挑战。该项目开发了一个分析城市政策的框架，该框架考虑了地理上精细的数据。该项目收集了新工厂和办公室开业的数据，并将其与通勤和土地价格信息相结合，分析了定量空间模型的预测。该项目将为城市经济模式的发展提供新的方向。这些模型有助于决策者预测和评估经济环境变化的影响。传统的定量空间模型假设一个连续体。因此，由于采样噪声，传统的估计程序可能会过度拟合颗粒结果。该项目开发了一个颗粒空间均衡模型，其特征是有限数量个体的优化决策，以及土地和劳动力市场出清，从而导致土地和劳动力的内生价格。该项目在经验上实现了该模型，并说明了优于先前计量经济学方法的进展。此外，通过收集和利用工厂和办公室开业以及通勤和土地价格响应的数据，该项目评估了空间经济模型的预测。这些模型在经济分析中越来越受欢迎，评估它们的预测将增加对它们预测的信心，并导致对这些框架的未来研究。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractUrban economy models are challenged by a growing body of increasingly fine spatial data. This project develops a framework for the analysis of urban policies that accounts for geographically fine data. The project assembles data of new plant and office openings and combines them with commuting and land price information to analyze the predictions of quantitative spatial models. The project will provide new directions for the development of urban economy models. These models are useful for policy makers in their forecasts and evaluation of the effects of changes to the economic environment.Conventional quantitative spatial models assume a continuum of agents. Therefore, conventional estimation procedures may over-fit granular outcomes due to sampling noise. This project develops a granular spatial-equilibrium model that features the optimizing decisions of a finite number of individuals, as well as land and labor market clearing, leading to endogenous prices for land and labor. The project empirically implements the model and illustrates advances over prior econometric approaches. Furthermore, by collecting and utilizing data on plant and office openings and commuting and land price responses, the project evaluates predictions of spatial economic models. These models have become increasingly popular in economic analysis and evaluating their predictions will increase the confidence in their predictions and lead to future research on these frameworks.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.