CNH-S: NNA: Modeling Risk from Black Carbon in a Coupled Natural-Human System at the Arctic Ice Edge
CNH-S:NNA:模拟北极冰缘自然-人类耦合系统中黑碳的风险
基本信息
- 批准号:1824829
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 62.42万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2018
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2018-09-01 至 2022-12-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Warming in the Arctic has occurred at more than twice the global average, with negative impacts on ecosystems, wildfires, infrastructure and Indigenous livelihoods. At the same time, this "Arctic amplification" may yield potentially positive impacts on some Arctic industries, such as shipping. Estimates of sea ice extent project an ice-free Arctic over the next century, but more near-term projections are uncertain, notably increasing the risk (and required return) of investments in shipping infrastructure. Despite this uncertainty and the attendant risks, early investments and policy planning are underway for a not-so-distant future in which a transpolar shipping route might be competitive with the Suez Canal. This transformation would have far-reaching effects on shipping costs, global and national competitiveness, the finances of multiple countries, and the deployment of commercial and military assets. Early adopters in Arctic shipping could conceivably bring this future closer: soot (black carbon) deposited on the ice from local ship traffic has been identified as a contributor to Arctic amplification, since the soot deposited on ice absorbs heat from the sun, accelerating ice melt. This feedback might accelerate the opening of sea lanes, but also increase the year-to-year shipping season variance, increasing uncertainty. As such, if financial analysts assume sea ice retreats in a predictably linear fashion, they likely underestimate the cost of variation in shipping season length, which may in turn affect investment behavior and risk-taking.This project asks how risk assessments of Arctic shipping under environmental and geopolitical change can incorporate the risk of amplification from black carbon deposition. To answer this question, the project seeks to understand the reciprocal relationships among ocean-atmosphere-ice dynamics, shipping accessibility, risk-finance-traffic dynamics, and black carbon emissions. Given that uncertainties in sea ice projections are to some extent irreducible, this necessitates a systems approach that can characterize uncertainties. Innovative model simulations of the dynamics of coupling between atmospheric processes, sea ice, and ocean heat transfer will constrain the role of local and global sources of black carbon. Grounded insights on risk management and perception will produce refined estimates of shipping volumes and associated black carbon emissions. The scientific output that will be produced will be disseminated to practitioners and policy-makers in the US and abroad. The project will additionally, train a new generation of interdisciplinary researchers and professionals by running a winter session class for students from the educational institutions involved in the project to help prepare a new generation for a rapidly-changing Arctic and world.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
北极变暖的速度是全球平均水平的两倍多,对生态系统、野火、基础设施和土著生计产生了负面影响。与此同时,这种“北极放大效应”可能会对一些北极行业产生潜在的积极影响,比如航运业。对海冰面积的估计预计,下个世纪将是一个不结冰的北极,但更多的近期预测不确定,尤其是增加了航运基础设施投资的风险(和必要的回报)。尽管存在这种不确定性和随之而来的风险,但在不远的将来,一条横跨极地的航线可能会与苏伊士运河竞争,早期投资和政策规划正在进行中。这种转变将对航运成本、全球和国家竞争力、多个国家的财政以及商业和军事资产的部署产生深远影响。可以想象,北极航运的早期采用者可能会让这一未来变得更近:当地船舶交通中沉积在冰上的烟尘(黑碳)已被确定为北极放大的贡献者,因为沉积在冰上的烟尘吸收太阳的热量,加速冰川融化。这种反馈可能会加速海上航线的开放,但也会增加每年航运季节的差异,增加不确定性。因此,如果金融分析师假设海冰以可预测的线性方式退缩,他们可能会低估航运季节长度变化的成本,这反过来可能会影响投资行为和风险承担。该项目询问在环境和地缘政治变化下对北极航运的风险评估如何纳入黑碳沉积带来的放大风险。为了回答这个问题,该项目试图了解海洋-大气-冰动力学、航运可达性、风险-金融-交通动力学和黑碳排放之间的相互关系。鉴于海冰预测中的不确定性在某种程度上是不可减少的,这就需要一种能够表征不确定性的系统方法。对大气过程、海冰和海洋热传输之间的耦合动力学的创新模型模拟将限制当地和全球黑碳来源的作用。对风险管理和认知的扎实见解将产生对运输量和相关黑碳排放的精确估计。将产生的科学成果将传播给美国和海外的从业者和政策制定者。此外,该项目还将通过为参与该项目的教育机构的学生举办冬季课程来培训新一代跨学科研究人员和专业人员,以帮助为快速变化的北极和世界培养新一代人。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命,并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估,被认为值得支持。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(8)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Arctic Maritime Cyclone Distribution and Trends in the ERA5 Reanalysis
ERA5 再分析中的北极海上气旋分布和趋势
- DOI:10.1175/jamc-d-21-0016.1
- 发表时间:2022
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:3
- 作者:Chen, Zihan;Lynch, Amanda H.
- 通讯作者:Lynch, Amanda H.
The impact of black carbon emissions from projected Arctic shipping on regional ice transport
- DOI:10.1007/s00382-021-05814-9
- 发表时间:2020-06
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:4.6
- 作者:Xueke Li;A. Lynch;D. Bailey;S. Stephenson;S. Veland
- 通讯作者:Xueke Li;A. Lynch;D. Bailey;S. Stephenson;S. Veland
The opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, geopolitical, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts
- DOI:10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104178
- 发表时间:2020-11-01
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.8
- 作者:Bennett, Mia M.;Stephenson, Scott R.;De Jonghe, Bert
- 通讯作者:De Jonghe, Bert
Sanctions or sea ice: Costs of closing the Northern Sea Route
- DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2022.103257
- 发表时间:2022-09-11
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:10.4
- 作者:Goldstein, Michael A.;Lynch, Amanda H.;Norchi, Charles H.
- 通讯作者:Norchi, Charles H.
Arctic shipping guidance from the CMIP6 ensemble on operational and infrastructural timescales
- DOI:10.1007/s10584-021-03172-3
- 发表时间:2021-07-01
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:4.8
- 作者:Li, Xueke;Stephenson, Scott R.;Veland, Siri
- 通讯作者:Veland, Siri
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Amanda Lynch其他文献
“Food Meant Everything to Me, Now Food Is Something I Eat:” Managing Emotions, Perceptions, and Awareness of Food and Eating After Bariatric Surgery
- DOI:
10.1093/cdn/nzaa059_073 - 发表时间:
2020-06-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:
- 作者:
Deema Ujayli;Isabella Quadrini;Amanda Lynch - 通讯作者:
Amanda Lynch
Position of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics: Medical Nutrition Therapy Behavioral Interventions Provided by Dietitians for Adults with Overweight or Obesity.
营养与饮食学会的立场:营养师为超重或肥胖成人提供的医学营养治疗行为干预措施。
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2023 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:4.8
- 作者:
H. Raynor;Maria Morgan;Suzanne Domel Baxter;Tanya Halliday;Amanda Lynch;N. Malik;Jessica L Garay;M. Rozga - 通讯作者:
M. Rozga
Deploying Scientific Applications to the PRAGMA Grid Testbed: Strategies and Lessons
将科学应用程序部署到 PRAGMA 网格测试台:策略和经验教训
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2006 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
D. Abramson;Amanda Lynch;H. Takemiya;Y. Tanimura;S. Date;Haruki Nakamura;Karpjoo Jeong;Suntae Hwang;Ji Zhu;Z. Lu;Céline Amoreira;K. Baldridge;Hurng;Chi;Horng;T. Molina;Wilfred W. Li;P. Arzberger - 通讯作者:
P. Arzberger
“The Best Portion of Your Life Is Small:” The Impact of Bariatric Surgery on Food Choices and Eating Motivations
- DOI:
10.1093/cdn/nzaa046_056 - 发表时间:
2020-06-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:
- 作者:
Isabella Quadrini;Deema Ujayli;Amanda Lynch - 通讯作者:
Amanda Lynch
Amanda Lynch的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Amanda Lynch', 18)}}的其他基金
NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: Navigating Convergent Pressures on Arctic Development
NNA 第 1 轨道:合作研究:应对北极发展的汇聚压力
- 批准号:
2022599 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 62.42万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Navigating the New Arctic (NNA): Co-production of shorefast ice knowledge in Uummannaq Bay, Greenland
航行新北极(NNA):在格陵兰岛乌马纳克湾联合生产岸冰知识
- 批准号:
1836473 - 财政年份:2018
- 资助金额:
$ 62.42万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
SGER: To Explore the Feasibility of Collaborative Resident-Scientist Climate Policy Research on the Alaskan North Slope Coastal Region
SGER:探索阿拉斯加北坡沿海地区驻地科学家合作气候政策研究的可行性
- 批准号:
0086601 - 财政年份:2000
- 资助金额:
$ 62.42万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Application of SHEBA Data to Understanding and Simulating the Cloud-Radiation Feedback: Climate Model Perspective
应用 SHEBA 数据来理解和模拟云辐射反馈:气候模型视角
- 批准号:
0084291 - 财政年份:2000
- 资助金额:
$ 62.42万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Oceanic and Atmospheric Processes in the Formation and Maintenance of the Cosmonaut Sea Deep-Water Polynya and their Relationship to Antarctic Climate
宇航员海深水冰间湖形成和维持的海洋和大气过程及其与南极气候的关系
- 批准号:
9725320 - 财政年份:1998
- 资助金额:
$ 62.42万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Transitions: A Study of The Spatial and Temporal Transitions of Climate and Ecosystems in the Circumpolar Arctic
转变:环北极气候和生态系统时空转变的研究
- 批准号:
9732461 - 财政年份:1998
- 资助金额:
$ 62.42万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
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