RAPID:Comparative quantitative microbial risk assessment of COVID-19 transmission through droplets, aerosols and contaminated surfaces

由SARS-CoV2病毒引起的全球新冠肺炎大流行，因其传播速度快、病死率高，对人类健康和经济造成了相当大的影响。研究新冠肺炎数据的趋势表明，除了直接人际传播之外，还可能存在其他传播途径。最近的报告显示，含有SARS-CoV2的气雾剂仍可在3小时后感染个人，被SARS-CoV2污染的塑料表面可以保持感染长达3天。在乘客离开后17天，从钻石公主游轮的船舱中发现了病毒的痕迹证据。该项目的目标是了解新冠肺炎通过受病毒污染的呼吸道飞沫、空气中微小的固体或液体颗粒以及接触受病毒污染的表面传播。这项研究将对影响疾病传播的人类行为、病毒的特性以及可能影响疾病传播的环境因素进行建模，以预测感染风险。如果成功，该项目将有助于描述SARS-CoV2的传播模式，并提供减缓或阻止这种疾病在美国传播的新方法。该项目的目标是通过不同的接触途径确定新型冠状病毒SARS-CoV2的感染风险，以便确定公共卫生保护措施的优先顺序。这项工作的具体目标是：1)模拟SARS-CoV2在不同环境条件下通过咳嗽/打喷嚏产生的飞沫和气雾剂以及通过冲厕所产生的气雾剂传播；2)通过吸入飞沫和气雾剂建立暴露模型，以确定单次和重复暴露的剂量；以及3)模拟通过接触受污染表面和面对面传播的重复暴露。这些模型将包含对不同条件下气溶胶产生、传输和去向的机理理解，以及数据拟合，以预测不同测试情景下的气溶胶大小和浓度。SARS-CoV2病毒从患者体内的脱落率及其在不同环境介质中的持久性将被用来模拟通过气溶胶和接触暴露的病毒载量。人类的生理和习惯将与病毒侵袭率相结合，使用蒙特卡罗概率模拟器来量化风险。敏感性分析还将与来自不同学科的研究人员团队合作，确定快速数据收集的数据差距。该项目的结果将有助于了解全球传染病的传播，超越对COVID-19的短期和长期补救策略。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The global COVID-19 pandemic caused by the virus SARS-CoV2 has caused considerable human health and economic impacts because of its rapid spread and high fatality rate. Examining the trend of COVID-19 data suggests other routes of transmission beyond direct person-to-person transmission are likely. Recent reports show that aerosols containing SARS-CoV2 could still infect an individual for up to 3 hours later, and plastic surfaces contaminated with SARS-CoV2 can remain infective for up to 3 days. Trace evidence of the virus was recovered from Diamond Princess cruise ship cabins up to 17 days after the passengers left. The goal of this project is to understand COVID-19 transmission through virus-contaminated respiratory droplets, fine solid or liquid particles in air, and contact with virus-contaminated surfaces. This study will model human behaviors effecting disease transmission, the properties of the virus, and environmental factors that may affect disease transmission to predict infection risk. If successful, this project will help describe transmission patterns of SARS-CoV2 and provide new ways to slow or halt the spread of this disease in the US. The goal of this project is to identify the infection risk of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 through different exposure routes in order to prioritize measures for public health protection. The specific objectives of this work are to: 1) model the spread of SARS-CoV2 through droplets and aerosols from coughing/sneezing and through aerosols generated from toilet flushing under different environmental conditions; 2) develop exposure models through inhalation of droplets and aerosols to determine the dose of single and repeated exposure; and 3) model repeated exposure through contact with contaminated surfaces and hands-to-face transmission. The models will incorporate mechanistic understanding of aerosol generation, transport, and fate under different conditions, as well as data fitting to predict aerosol size and concentration under different test scenarios. SARS-CoV2 viral shedding rate from patients and its persistence in different environmental media will be used to model the viral load through aerosol and contact exposure. Human physiology and habits will be coupled with viral attack rates to quantify the risk using a Monte Carlo probability simulator. The sensitivity analysis will also identify data gaps for rapid data collection in collaboration with teams of researchers from different disciplines. The results of this project will contribute to the understanding of global spread of infectious disease beyond short and long-term remediation strategies on COVID-19.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.