RAPID:Comparative quantitative microbial risk assessment of COVID-19 transmission through droplets, aerosols and contaminated surfaces

由SARS-CoV 2病毒引起的全球COVID-19大流行因其快速传播和高致死率而对人类健康和经济造成了重大影响。研究COVID-19数据的趋势表明，除了人与人之间的直接传播之外，还可能有其他传播途径。最近的报告显示，含有SARS-CoV 2的气溶胶仍然可以在3小时后感染个体，而被SARS-CoV 2污染的塑料表面可以在3天内保持感染性。在乘客离开后的17天内，从钻石公主号游轮的船舱中发现了病毒的痕迹证据。该项目的目标是了解COVID-19通过病毒污染的呼吸道飞沫、空气中的细小固体或液体颗粒以及接触病毒污染的表面传播。这项研究将模拟影响疾病传播的人类行为，病毒的特性以及可能影响疾病传播的环境因素，以预测感染风险。如果成功，该项目将有助于描述SARS-CoV 2的传播模式，并提供减缓或阻止这种疾病在美国传播的新方法。 该项目的目标是通过不同的暴露途径确定新型冠状病毒SARS-CoV 2的感染风险，以便优先采取措施保护公众健康。这项工作的具体目标是：1）模拟SARS-CoV 2在不同环境条件下通过咳嗽/打喷嚏产生的飞沫和气溶胶以及通过冲厕所产生的气溶胶传播; 2）开发通过吸入飞沫和气溶胶的暴露模型，以确定单次和重复暴露的剂量;和3）模拟通过接触受污染表面和通过手到脸传播的重复暴露。这些模型将结合对不同条件下气溶胶生成、传输和归宿的机械理解，以及预测不同测试情景下气溶胶大小和浓度的数据拟合。患者的SARS-CoV 2病毒脱落率及其在不同环境介质中的持续性将用于模拟通过气溶胶和接触暴露的病毒载量。人类的生理和习惯将与病毒攻击率相结合，使用蒙特卡洛概率模拟器量化风险。敏感性分析还将查明数据差距，以便与不同学科的研究人员小组合作，迅速收集数据。该项目的成果将有助于理解传染病的全球传播，而不仅仅是对COVID-19的短期和长期补救策略。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The global COVID-19 pandemic caused by the virus SARS-CoV2 has caused considerable human health and economic impacts because of its rapid spread and high fatality rate. Examining the trend of COVID-19 data suggests other routes of transmission beyond direct person-to-person transmission are likely. Recent reports show that aerosols containing SARS-CoV2 could still infect an individual for up to 3 hours later, and plastic surfaces contaminated with SARS-CoV2 can remain infective for up to 3 days. Trace evidence of the virus was recovered from Diamond Princess cruise ship cabins up to 17 days after the passengers left. The goal of this project is to understand COVID-19 transmission through virus-contaminated respiratory droplets, fine solid or liquid particles in air, and contact with virus-contaminated surfaces. This study will model human behaviors effecting disease transmission, the properties of the virus, and environmental factors that may affect disease transmission to predict infection risk. If successful, this project will help describe transmission patterns of SARS-CoV2 and provide new ways to slow or halt the spread of this disease in the US. The goal of this project is to identify the infection risk of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 through different exposure routes in order to prioritize measures for public health protection. The specific objectives of this work are to: 1) model the spread of SARS-CoV2 through droplets and aerosols from coughing/sneezing and through aerosols generated from toilet flushing under different environmental conditions; 2) develop exposure models through inhalation of droplets and aerosols to determine the dose of single and repeated exposure; and 3) model repeated exposure through contact with contaminated surfaces and hands-to-face transmission. The models will incorporate mechanistic understanding of aerosol generation, transport, and fate under different conditions, as well as data fitting to predict aerosol size and concentration under different test scenarios. SARS-CoV2 viral shedding rate from patients and its persistence in different environmental media will be used to model the viral load through aerosol and contact exposure. Human physiology and habits will be coupled with viral attack rates to quantify the risk using a Monte Carlo probability simulator. The sensitivity analysis will also identify data gaps for rapid data collection in collaboration with teams of researchers from different disciplines. The results of this project will contribute to the understanding of global spread of infectious disease beyond short and long-term remediation strategies on COVID-19.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.