Collaborative Research: RAPID: Wastewater Informed Epidemiological Monitoring of SARS-CoV-2

全球新冠肺炎大流行对人类健康和经济造成了相当大的影响，这向研究界提出了一系列独特的挑战，必须实时应对。控制任何大流行的关键是准确估计社区内有多少人受到感染。引起新冠肺炎的SARS-CoV-2病毒从感染者的粪便中排泄出来，最终进入污水处理厂。SARS-CoV-2在人类排泄物中的存在为潜在地监测SARS-CoV-2废水提供了机会，以估计社区中的感染人数，并为未来SARS-CoV-2疫情提供“早期预警系统”。这项研究的目标是开发监测废水中SARS-CoV-2的方法，并将这些测量与流行病学模型联系起来。此外，项目组将在全球范围内协调SARS-CoV-2的废水监测工作。如果成功，这项研究可能会导致对其他病毒爆发的其他类似监测工作，并保护国家的健康。SARS-CoV-2(即2019-nCoV)被确定为呼吸系统疾病暴发的原因，这种疾病现在是一种全球大流行，对医疗服务和商业造成重大干扰。关于这种病毒流行情况的重大不确定性仍然存在。这一信息对于告知控制建议和确定病死率至关重要。最近在粪便中发现了SARS-CoV-2，这增加了使用基于废水的流行病学方法来评估SARS-CoV-2社区流行率的可能性。在这种方法中，SARS-CoV-2的分子量化将与流行病学数据相结合，以建立疫情动态模型，并估计随着时间的推移病毒在社区中的总体流行情况。这些数据将利用公共卫生监测数据整合到流行病学模型中。与流行病学数据相比，来自废水的数据可以在更精细的空间尺度上为流行病学估计提供信息，并可以提供在大流行第一波之后继续进行社区传播的迹象。这种病毒有可能像流感和其他冠状病毒一样成为季节性传播的地方性病原体，这将使这种类型的分析变得越来越有信息量。这项研究产生的技术发展包括改进的样本处理方法、分子量化方法、将结果数据整合到流行病学模型中，以及与国内和国际合作者协调以标准化方法学。在当前疫情之后，利用废水监测SARS-CoV-2具有重大的科学意义。这项研究将为这些努力提供信息，并帮助应对未来的爆发。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The global COVID-19 pandemic causing considerable human health and economic impacts presents the research community with a unique set of challenges that must be addressed in real time. Critical to managing any pandemic is the accurate estimation of how many people are infected within communities. SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, is excreted in the stool of infected individuals, eventually ending up in the wastewater treatment plant. The presence of SARS-CoV-2 in human waste presents the opportunity to potentially monitor wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 to estimate the number of infections in the community and provide an ‘early warning system’ for future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. The goal of this research is to develop methods to monitor for SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and to connect these measurements to epidemiology models. In addition, the project team will coordinate wastewater monitoring efforts for SARS-CoV-2 globally. If successful, this research could lead to other similar monitoring efforts for other viral outbreaks and protect the health of the Nation. SARS-CoV-2 (i.e., 2019-nCoV) is identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness that is now a global pandemic causing significant disruption to medical services and commerce. Significant uncertainties about the prevalence of this virus remain. This information which is vital to inform control recommendations and determine the case fatality rate. The recent detection of SARS-CoV-2 in stool raises the possibility of using wastewater-based epidemiological approaches to estimate the community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. In this approach, molecular quantification of SARS-CoV-2 will be combined with epidemiological data to model outbreak dynamics and estimate the overall prevalence of the virus in the community over time. These data will be integrated into epidemiological models using data from public health surveillance. Data from wastewater could inform epidemiological estimates on finer spatial scales than epidemiological data and could provide indications of continued community transmission following the initial wave of the pandemic. The potential for this virus to become a seasonally transmitted endemic pathogen like influenza and other coronaviruses would make this type of analysis increasingly informative. Technical developments resulting from this research include improved sample handling methods, molecular quantification approaches, integration of the resulting data into epidemiological models, as well as coordination with domestic and international collaborators to standardize methodology. There is significant scientific interest in using wastewater to monitor for SARS-CoV-2 beyond the current outbreak. This research will inform such efforts and help respond to future outbreaks.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.