Coming Out of a Recession - Investigating the (Persistent) Consequences of an Economic Downturn on Consumer Shopping Behavior

很少有消费者比经济衰退时期更担心他们的未来。由于预期生活费用上升，甚至失业，消费支出往往减少，并维持在一个基本水平，直到出现明显的经济复苏迹象。减少或完全停止购买某些产品是实现这些节省的一种可能性;然而，对于快速消费品，数量调整只在一定程度上是可行的，并且只具有有限的节省潜力。相反，消费者越来越关注他们想要的产品的价格。通过这种方式，一些家庭将购买从Rewe、真实的或Edeka等非折扣形式转移到Aldi、Lidl或Penny等折扣商店。其他人则用低价自有品牌替代昂贵的制造商品牌，或转向暂时出售的产品。对零售商和制造商来说，经济衰退不仅会导致需求量的变化，还会引发结构调整。因此，为了更审慎地应对未来的市场冲击，全面了解危机对私人消费的复杂影响对它们来说非常重要。在这方面，不仅经济衰退本身的直接影响令人感兴趣。特别是商业周期后续阶段的长期调整是有意义的。然而，尽管这一课题经常被提及，但很少有学术研究分析消费者对经济衰退的反应方式和程度。本课题试图通过以下研究问题来解决这些问题：1.经济衰退开始后，购物行为如何调整？2.能否为不同的家庭确定不同的调整战略？这些调整如何用家庭特有的特征和态度来解释？3.从长远来看，当经济衰退结束时，会出现哪些调整？消费者是否会回到旧习惯（“回归正常”），或者某些调整会永远保持（“回归新常态”）？这些问题将在包含最近金融和经济危机的专题小组数据集的基础上加以处理。对于20.000德国家庭，所有购买在39个快速消费品类别之间2004年和2013年将进行分析和建模。本研究的主要贡献包括所谓的过渡矩阵的发展。有了这些矩阵，就可以解释衰退开始后和衰退结束后各个家庭的消费调整战略。除了学术见解，重要的管理影响，为未来的危机产生。

Rarely are consumers more worried about their future than in times of an economic downswing. In expectation of a rising cost of living or even unemployment, consumption expenditures are often reduced and maintained at a base level until clear signs of economic recovery appear. Lessening or completely ceasing purchases of certain products is one possibility to effectuate these savings; however, for fast moving consumer goods, quantity adjustments are only feasible up to a certain degree and hold only limited savings potentials. Instead, consumers focus increasingly on the prices of their desired products. In this way, some households shift their purchases from non-discount formats like Rewe, Real or Edeka to discount stores like Aldi, Lidl or Penny. Others substitute expensive manufacturer brands with low-priced private labels or turn towards items that are temporarily on sale.For retailers and manufacturers, a recession causes demand not only to change quantitatively but also induces structural adjustments. Thus, in order to react more deliberately to future market shocks, a holistic understanding of a crisis' complex effects on private consumption is highly valuable to them. In this regard, not only the immediate effects during the recession itself are of interest. Especially the long-term adjustments in subsequent phases of the business cycle are meaningful. In spite of the topics' recurring relevance, however, few academic studies have analyzed in which way and to what extent consumers respond to a recession.The present project seeks to tackle these issues via the following research questions:1. How is shopping behavior adjusted after the beginning of a recession?2. Can differing adjustment strategies be identified for different households? And how can these adjustments be explained by household-specific characteristics and attitudes?3. Which adjustments arise in the long run when the recession is over? Do consumers return to old habits ("return to normal"), or are certain adjustments perpetually maintained ("return to a new normal")?These questions shall be addressed on the basis of a panel dataset that contains the most recent financial and economic crisis. For 20.000 German households, all purchases in 39 FMCG categories between 2004 and 2013 will be analyzed and modeled.The essential contribution of this study comprises the development of so called transition matrices. With these matrices, consumption adjustment strategies of individual households can be explained after the beginning of the recession and subsequent to its ending. In addition to academic insights, important managerial implications for future crises are generated.