RAPID: Linking population dynamics and behavior to understand how wildfire modifies the prevalence of zoonotic disease

据估计，60%影响人类的病原体，包括新型冠状病毒，也会感染野生动物。本项目在野生小鼠种群中检测人类汉坦病毒肺综合征的病原体Sin Nombre病毒（SNV）。特别是，这项工作评估了频率和严重程度不断增加的野火如何影响疾病动态。关于野火对动物种群疾病影响的知识是不完整的，因为很少有火灾前的数据可以用来进行火灾后的比较，而且野火可以同时影响动物的行为、数量和运动。该项目将有助于确定野火改变动物疾病的机制，从而通过提高预测未来野火将如何影响野生动物和人类疾病的能力，为社会带来好处。该项目还将通过确定哪些干预策略可能最成功地减少野生动物种群的火灾后疾病，提供减轻人类疾病风险的方法。通过外联，该项目将教育公众野火如何影响传染病。此外，该项目将为培养STEM领域代表性不足的研究生提供重要机会。本项目通过野火对鹿鼠（Peromyscus maniculatus）的人口和行为的影响来评估野火如何影响SNV的流行。密集的火灾后即时人口统计、行为和环境数据将与现有的长期火灾前数据相结合。该项目位于加利福尼亚州的圣克鲁斯岛，利用了2020年6月最近发生的一场野火。该项目的目的是评估将干扰与人畜共患疾病流行联系起来的三个假设。1)通过改变火灾后种群组成，分散、产量和流行率的性别差异。2)火灾后生境植被结构的变化导致动物丰度的局部变化，从而改变接触率和疾病流行率。3)火灾后生境的资源和风险均质化，使动物活动的时间同步，增加了接触率和流行率。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

An estimated 60% of pathogens that affect humans, including the novel coronarvirus, also infect wild animals. This project examines Sin Nombre virus (SNV), a causative agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in humans, in wild mouse populations. In particular, this work evaluates how wildfires, which are increasing in frequency and severity, affect disease dynamics. Knowledge of wildfire effects on disease in animal populations is incomplete because pre-fire data rarely exist to make informed post-fire comparisons, and because wildfires can simultaneously affect animal behavior, abundance, and movement. This project will help identify mechanisms whereby wildfire modifies disease in animals, thereby providing benefits to society by improving the ability to predict how future wildfires will affect disease in wildlife and humans. The project will also provide ways to mitigate human disease risk by identifying which intervention strategies are likely to be most successful for reducing post-fire disease in wildlife populations. Through outreach the project will educate the public about how wildfire affects infectious disease. In addition, the project will provide significant opportunities for training graduate students underrepresented in STEM fields. This project evaluates how wildfire affects the prevalence of SNV via the effects of wildfire on deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) demography and behavior. Intensive immediate post-fire demographic, behavioral, and environmental data will be combined with existing long-term, pre-fire data. The project occurs on Santa Cruz Island, CA and capitalizes on a recent wildfire in June 2020. The objective of the project is to evaluate three hypotheses that link disturbance and the prevalence of zoonotic disease. 1) Sex-based differences in dispersal yield changes in prevalence by altering the composition of post-fire populations. 2) Changes in vegetative structure in post-fire habitats drive local changes in animal abundance that modify contact rates and disease prevalence. 3) Homogeneous resources and risk in post-fire habitats serve to synchronize the timing of animal activity, increasing contact rates and prevalence.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.