Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Not-So-Inexhaustible Sea: Fisheries Science and Management 1863-present

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Fish provide the primary source of protein for a billion people, but that crucial food supply is threatened by overfishing. Despite a vast scientific and policy literature arguing that sustainable fisheries are achievable through scientific models and management frameworks, the health of global fisheries continues to decline. This suggests that there may be something fundamentally wrong with the way we have tried to analyze, understand, and manage fishing. This project examines an overlooked but critical factor in the overfishing crisis: the false belief that fisheries are inexhaustible, meaning they can be harvested at contemporary rates indefinitely, year after year, without risk of collapse. The resulting dissertation will: 1) document the history of inexhaustibility and show how resistance to the idea of dwindling fish stocks has taken different forms over the centuries; 2) examine what propels belief in inexhaustible seas; and 3) suggest how its influence might be mitigated to allow for the development of more effective and resilient fisheries management strategies. This project finds surprising continuities over a hundred and fifty years of history. Preliminary results from archival research methods show that inexhaustibility appears in diverse forms over time but for similar reasons, including 1) overconfidence in quantitative science and free markets to simplify and solve complex environmental and social problems; 2) failure to account for observed fluctuations in fish populations that may make predictable and sustainable annual catches very difficult in the long term; and 3) an inertia generated by existing models, areas of focus, and management strategies that precludes new ways of thinking. Drawing on historian Thomas Hughes’ notion of technological momentum, this project suggests that the idea of inexhaustibility has had sufficient intellectual momentum that it has proved nearly impossible to dislodge, even in the face of volumes of refuting empirical evidence. Through publications, op-eds, forums, round-table discussions, and oral histories deposited in the NOAA Voices archive, this project will engage scientists, policy-makers, environmentalists, and workers in the fishing industry in rethinking fisheries science to adapt to the reality of an exhaustible—and increasingly exhausted—sea.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.