Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Not-So-Inexhaustible Sea: Fisheries Science and Management 1863-present

鱼类为10亿人提供了主要的蛋白质来源，但这种至关重要的食物供应受到过度捕捞的威胁。尽管大量科学和政策文献认为，可持续渔业可以通过科学模式和管理框架实现，但全球渔业的健康状况继续下降。这表明，我们试图分析、理解和管理渔业的方式可能存在根本性的错误。该项目研究了过度捕捞危机中一个被忽视但却至关重要的因素：人们错误地认为渔业是取之不尽的，这意味着它们可以以当代的速度无限期地、年复一年地捕捞，而没有崩溃的风险。由此产生的论文将：1）记录取之不尽的历史，并展示几个世纪以来对鱼类资源减少的想法的抵制如何采取不同形式; 2）研究是什么推动了对取之不尽的海洋的信念; 3）建议如何减轻其影响，以制定更有效和更有弹性的渔业管理战略。这个项目发现了一百五十多年历史的惊人连续性。档案研究方法的初步结果表明，随着时间的推移，取之不尽的现象以各种形式出现，但原因相似，包括：1）过度相信数量科学和自由市场可以简化和解决复杂的环境和社会问题; 2）未能考虑到观察到的鱼类种群波动，这可能使可预测和可持续的年度渔获量长期非常困难;三是现有模式、重点领域和管理战略所产生的惰性，阻碍了新的思维方式。借鉴历史学家托马斯休斯的技术动力概念，这个项目表明，取之不尽的想法已经有了足够的智力动力，即使面对大量反驳经验证据，它也几乎不可能被驱逐。通过出版物、专栏、论坛、圆桌讨论和存放在NOAA Voices档案中的口述历史，该项目将吸引科学家、决策者、环保主义者、和渔业工人重新思考渔业科学，以适应枯竭的现实，该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Fish provide the primary source of protein for a billion people, but that crucial food supply is threatened by overfishing. Despite a vast scientific and policy literature arguing that sustainable fisheries are achievable through scientific models and management frameworks, the health of global fisheries continues to decline. This suggests that there may be something fundamentally wrong with the way we have tried to analyze, understand, and manage fishing. This project examines an overlooked but critical factor in the overfishing crisis: the false belief that fisheries are inexhaustible, meaning they can be harvested at contemporary rates indefinitely, year after year, without risk of collapse. The resulting dissertation will: 1) document the history of inexhaustibility and show how resistance to the idea of dwindling fish stocks has taken different forms over the centuries; 2) examine what propels belief in inexhaustible seas; and 3) suggest how its influence might be mitigated to allow for the development of more effective and resilient fisheries management strategies. This project finds surprising continuities over a hundred and fifty years of history. Preliminary results from archival research methods show that inexhaustibility appears in diverse forms over time but for similar reasons, including 1) overconfidence in quantitative science and free markets to simplify and solve complex environmental and social problems; 2) failure to account for observed fluctuations in fish populations that may make predictable and sustainable annual catches very difficult in the long term; and 3) an inertia generated by existing models, areas of focus, and management strategies that precludes new ways of thinking. Drawing on historian Thomas Hughes’ notion of technological momentum, this project suggests that the idea of inexhaustibility has had sufficient intellectual momentum that it has proved nearly impossible to dislodge, even in the face of volumes of refuting empirical evidence. Through publications, op-eds, forums, round-table discussions, and oral histories deposited in the NOAA Voices archive, this project will engage scientists, policy-makers, environmentalists, and workers in the fishing industry in rethinking fisheries science to adapt to the reality of an exhaustible—and increasingly exhausted—sea.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.