Big Push, Distortions, and Economic Development

摘要为什么有些国家贫穷，有些国家富裕？一种观点强调了资源错配在贫穷国家中的作用。另一种观点强调协调失败的作用：个别公司发现单方面采用先进技术无利可图，即使每个人都将从协调采用中受益。后一种观点在政策界有着悠久的传统，被称为大推动。拟议的研究使用细粒度数据在量化框架中将这两种观点联系起来。该项目探讨了这样一个概念，即企业技术采用决策中的互补性可以有力地放大其他经济低效来源的影响。这种放大即使在没有协调失败的情况下也会运行，而协调失败可以被认为是放大的一种极端形式。这一机制不仅有助于解释各国人均收入的巨大差异，还说明了改革或产业政策能够对经济产生积极影响并更有可能成功的条件。本项目侧重于导致企业技术采用决策中的互补性的模型元素，这是协调失败观的核心均衡多样性所必需的。这项研究认为互补性而不是多重性的含义更广泛和有力地适用，因为均衡多重性取决于几个限制性假设。该项目开发了一种事前异质公司的进入和技术采用模式，这些公司生产差异化的产品，容易受到特殊扭曲，并通过投入-产出联系相互联系。企业首先选择是否支付固定成本并进入市场。活跃的公司可以运营传统技术，或者在支付采用成本后，运营更具生产力的现代技术。投入-产出联系是技术采用互补性的来源。该项目确定了企业技术采用决策中的互补性支持多个均衡的条件，这些均衡比放大条件更强。利用微观经济数据，该项目考察了互补性如何大幅放大扭曲对总生产率的影响，有时是通过均衡的多重性，但当均衡是唯一的时候。然后，该项目将该框架扩展到多部门模型和动态模型。这项研究进一步探索了技术采用的互补性如何可能放大商业周期中的经济冲击。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Abstract Why are some countries poor and others rich? One view emphasizes the role of resource misallocation in poor countries. An alternative view emphasizes the role of coordination failures: Individual firms do not find it profitable to adopt advanced technologies unilaterally, even though everyone will benefit from coordinated adoptions. The latter view has a long tradition in policy circles, known as the Big Push. The proposed research bridges these two views in a quantitative framework using granular data. The project explores the notion that the complementary in firms' technology adoption decisions can powerfully amplify the effect of other sources of economic inefficiency. This amplification operates even when there is no coordination failure, and coordination failures can be thought of as an extreme form of amplification. This mechanism not only helps explain the vast differences in income per capital across countries, but also illustrates the conditions under which reforms or industrial policies can have positive impact on the economy and are more likely to succeed.This project focuses on the model elements that cause the complementary in firms' technology adoption decisions, which is necessary for the equilibrium multiplicity central to the coordination failure view. This research considers complementary rather than multiplicity for implications to be more widely and robustly applicable as equilibrium multiplicity hinges on several restrictive assumptions. The project develops a model of entry and technology adoption by ex-ante heterogeneous firms, which produce differentiated goods, are subject to idiosyncratic distortions, and are connected to one another through input-output linkages. Firms first choose whether to pay a fixed cost and enter the market. Active firms can operate a traditional technology or, upon paying adoption costs, a more productive modern technology. The input-output linkages are the source of the complementary in technology adoption. The project identifies the conditions under which the complementary in firms' technology adoption decisions supports multiple equilibria, which are stronger than the conditions for amplification. Utilizing microeconomic data, the project examines how complementary substantially amplifies the effect of distortions on aggregate productivity, sometimes through equilibrium multiplicity but also when the equilibrium is unique. The project then extends the framework to multi-sector models and dynamic models. The research further explores how complementary in technology adoption may amplify economic shocks over the business cycles.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.