Big Push, Distortions, and Economic Development

大推动、扭曲和经济发展

• 批准号: 2049674
• 负责人: Yongseok Shin
• 金额: $ 47.3万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-07-01 至 2024-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2049674&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Big; Push; Distortions; Economic; Development

Abstract Why are some countries poor and others rich? One view emphasizes the role of resource misallocation in poor countries. An alternative view emphasizes the role of coordination failures: Individual firms do not find it profitable to adopt advanced technologies unilaterally, even though everyone will benefit from coordinated adoptions. The latter view has a long tradition in policy circles, known as the Big Push. The proposed research bridges these two views in a quantitative framework using granular data. The project explores the notion that the complementary in firms' technology adoption decisions can powerfully amplify the effect of other sources of economic inefficiency. This amplification operates even when there is no coordination failure, and coordination failures can be thought of as an extreme form of amplification. This mechanism not only helps explain the vast differences in income per capital across countries, but also illustrates the conditions under which reforms or industrial policies can have positive impact on the economy and are more likely to succeed.This project focuses on the model elements that cause the complementary in firms' technology adoption decisions, which is necessary for the equilibrium multiplicity central to the coordination failure view. This research considers complementary rather than multiplicity for implications to be more widely and robustly applicable as equilibrium multiplicity hinges on several restrictive assumptions. The project develops a model of entry and technology adoption by ex-ante heterogeneous firms, which produce differentiated goods, are subject to idiosyncratic distortions, and are connected to one another through input-output linkages. Firms first choose whether to pay a fixed cost and enter the market. Active firms can operate a traditional technology or, upon paying adoption costs, a more productive modern technology. The input-output linkages are the source of the complementary in technology adoption. The project identifies the conditions under which the complementary in firms' technology adoption decisions supports multiple equilibria, which are stronger than the conditions for amplification. Utilizing microeconomic data, the project examines how complementary substantially amplifies the effect of distortions on aggregate productivity, sometimes through equilibrium multiplicity but also when the equilibrium is unique. The project then extends the framework to multi-sector models and dynamic models. The research further explores how complementary in technology adoption may amplify economic shocks over the business cycles.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

为什么有些国家贫穷而有些国家富裕？一种观点强调了贫穷国家资源分配不当的作用。另一种观点强调协调失败的作用：单个公司发现单方面采用先进技术是没有利润的，尽管每个人都将从协调采用中受益。后一种观点在政策界有着悠久的传统，被称为“大力推动”。拟议的研究桥梁这两种观点在一个定量的框架，使用粒度数据。该项目探讨的概念，在公司的技术采用决策的互补性可以有力地放大经济效率低下的其他来源的影响。这种放大作用即使在没有协调失败的情况下也会发挥作用，而协调失败可以被认为是放大作用的一种极端形式。这一机制不仅有助于解释各国人均收入的巨大差异，而且也说明了改革或产业政策能够对经济产生积极影响并更有可能成功的条件。本项目关注的是，在协调失败观点中，均衡多重性所必需的企业技术采纳决策中，导致互补性的模型要素。本研究认为，互补性，而不是多重性的影响，更广泛和强大的适用平衡多重性取决于几个限制性的假设。该项目开发了一个模型的进入和技术采用的事前异质公司，生产差异化的产品，受到特质扭曲，并通过投入产出的联系相互连接。企业首先选择是否支付固定成本并进入市场。活跃的公司可以经营传统技术，也可以在支付采用成本后经营生产力更高的现代技术。投入产出关系是技术采用互补性的源泉。该项目确定的条件下，在企业的技术采用决策的互补支持多重均衡，这是强于放大的条件。利用微观经济数据，该项目研究了互补性如何大幅放大扭曲对总生产率的影响，有时通过均衡多重性，但也当均衡是唯一的。然后，该项目将该框架扩展到多部门模型和动态模型。该研究进一步探讨了技术采用的互补性如何在商业周期中放大经济冲击。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。