Collaborative Research: Experiments on Procedures and Prediction in Economic Decision Making

合作研究：经济决策过程和预测的实验

• 批准号: 2049748
• 负责人: Kirby Nielsen
• 金额: $ 24.78万
• 依托单位: California Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-07-01 至 2025-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2049748&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Experiments; Procedures; Prediction

This project contributes to research in behavioral economics. We know that standard economic models of individual behavior often do not accurately describe how people behave in specific situations. Another way to say this is that these models are not descriptive. However, these models are built on assumptions that people may think include valuable principles that should guide behavior. If this is the case, then these standard canonical models would instruct people on how they should behave. Such a model would be prescriptive, because it prescribes the behavior that people should choose to follow the principle. This project examines whether or not standard economic models are prescriptive in laboratory decision making experiments. The results of this research will further our understanding of whether and how economic models of individual behavior can guide policy interventions. This project will develop two novel experimental methods to assess the normative (prescriptive) nature of expected utility, discounted expected utility, and subjective expected utility. The first methodology will treat axioms as procedures that make a choice on behalf of the individual. Indi- viduals will see axioms represented in a visually simple manner and will report whether they want their choices to be consistent with the axiom. Then, individuals will make choices from decision problems related to the axiom, and will be given the opportunity to reconcile any discrepancies between their preference over axioms and choices. This methodology will test whether individuals treat the axioms as normative in decision-making, even in situations where they originally violated the axiom. We will employ this methodology in the domains of temporal choice and choice under risk and ambiguity. The second methodology will directly elicit whether individuals prefer recommendations that are predicted by a model. This will reveal whether the model itself is viewed as normative by evaluating predictions, without needing to explain the model to experimental participants. We will employ this methodology to study the normative appeal of expected utility theory. Together, this research agenda will show whether individuals want their choices to be consistent with canonical economic models. If they do, then the frequently observed violations of these models might be better thought of as mistakes rather than reflecting underlying preferences.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目有助于行为经济学的研究。我们知道，个人行为的标准经济模型往往不能准确地描述人们在特定情况下的行为。换句话说，这些模型不是描述性的。然而，这些模型是建立在人们可能认为包括指导行为的有价值的原则的假设之上的。如果是这样的话，那么这些标准的规范模型将指导人们如何行事。这样的模型将是规定性的，因为它规定了人们应该选择遵循原则的行为。本计画探讨标准经济模式在实验室决策实验中是否具有规范性。这项研究的结果将进一步加深我们对个人行为的经济模型是否以及如何指导政策干预的理解。本计画将发展两种新颖的实验方法来评估预期效用、折现预期效用与主观预期效用的规范性（规范性）。第一种方法论将公理视为代表个人做出选择的程序。Indi-viewer将看到以视觉上简单的方式表示的公理，并将报告他们是否希望他们的选择与公理一致。然后，个人将从与公理相关的决策问题中做出选择，并有机会调和他们对公理的偏好与选择之间的任何差异。这种方法将测试个人是否在决策中将公理视为规范，即使在他们最初违反公理的情况下。我们将采用这种方法的领域的时间选择和选择下的风险和模糊性。第二种方法将直接得出个人是否更喜欢由模型预测的建议。这将通过评估预测来揭示模型本身是否被视为规范，而无需向实验参与者解释模型。我们将使用这种方法来研究期望效用理论的规范性诉求。总之，这个研究议程将显示个人是否希望他们的选择与规范的经济模型相一致。如果他们这样做，那么经常观察到的违反这些模型的行为可能更好地被认为是错误，而不是反映潜在的偏好。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

项目成果

When Choices Are Mistakes

当选择是错误的时候

• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: American economic review
• 影响因子: 10.7
• 作者: Nielsen, Kirby;Rehbeck, John
• 通讯作者: Rehbeck, John