The Effects of Panel Conditioning on Data Quality

该研究项目将促进对面板调节机制以及面板调节对数据质量的影响的科学理解。小组条件反射是指参与多波小组调查中的一波调查所带来的报告、态度和行为的变化。这些变化在面板的后续波的响应中实现，并且在变化的测量中引入误差。由于小组调查主要是为了测量变化，小组条件是测量误差的一个重要来源。 以前的研究主要是基于观测数据，无法清楚地确定面板条件反射的大小或来源。本项目将通过一系列的实验研究来阐明面板条件作用的机制，从而解决这一局限性。该项目将对社会科学家产生广泛的影响，他们依赖于小组调查的数据，如收入动态小组调查，美国全国选举研究，以及由联邦统计系统管理的小组调查，如当前人口调查和全国犯罪受害者调查。该项目的结果将为减少面板调节效应和/或对其进行统计调整的努力提供信息。该项目将通过研究生课程、短期课程、出版物和会议演示来促进教学、培训和学习。该项目将进行一系列实验，以解决有关面板条件反射的许多开放性问题。实验结果将提高对面板条件反射的原因的理解，并提供有关何时应预期发生这种效应的见解。将进行六个实验，每个实验检查一种类型的条件反射的一个特定的假设，着眼于数据质量。实验1将探讨是否动机误报或改善问题的理解是减少受害的报告，在一轮调查的机制。实验2将比较两种组织过滤问题的格式（分组与隔页），研究它们在减少由减轻负担的动机驱动的误报方面的有效性。实验3将研究态度是否随着时间的推移变得更加一致，以及什么认知机制可以解释一致性的变化。实验4将研究重复提问如何影响潜在敏感话题的报道，以及在报道中观察到的任何变化背后的机制。实验5将探讨不同类型的问题如何影响投票行为和关于投票的报告，以及询问受访者是否打算投票是否会增加投票的可能性。实验六考察了重复访谈中关于知识和人格的报告是否存在练习效应。该奖项由MMS计划和联邦统计机构联盟支持。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research project will advance scientific understanding of the mechanisms responsible for panel conditioning as well as the effects of panel conditioning on data quality. Panel conditioning refers to changes in reporting, attitudes, and behavior brought about by participating in a wave of a multi-wave panel survey. These changes are realized in responses at subsequent waves of the panel and introduce error in measures of change. Since panel surveys are primarily designed to measure change, panel conditioning is an important source of measurement error. Prior research largely has been based on observational data that could not clearly identify either the magnitude or the sources of panel conditioning. This project will address this limitation by administering a series of experimental studies to shed light on mechanisms underlying panel conditioning effects. The project will have broad impacts for social scientists who rely on data from panel surveys such as the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, the American National Election Studies, and panel surveys administered by the Federal statistical system such as the Current Population Survey and the National Crime Victimization Survey. Results from this project will inform efforts to reduce panel conditioning effects and/or to adjust for them statistically. The project will promote teaching, training, and learning through courses offered in graduate programs, short courses, publications, and conference presentations.This project will conduct a series of experiments to address many of the open questions about panel conditioning. The experimental results will improve understanding about the causes of panel conditioning and provide insights as to when such effects should be expected to occur. Six experiments will be conducted, each examining a specific hypothesis about one type of conditioning with an eye to data quality. Experiment 1 will examine whether motivated misreporting or improved question understanding is the mechanism underlying decreasing reports of victimization over rounds of a survey. Experiment 2 will compare two formats (grouped versus interleafed) for organizing filter questions, examining how effective they are for reducing misreporting driven by a motivation to reduce burden. Experiment 3 will investigate whether attitudes become more consistent over time and what cognitive mechanisms might explain changes in consistency. Experiment 4 will examine how repeated questioning affect reports on potentially sensitive topics and what mechanisms underlie any observed changes in reporting. Experiment 5 will explore how different types of questions affect voting behavior and reports about voting, and whether asking respondents if they intend to vote increases the likelihood of voting. Experiment 6 will examine whether there are practice effects on reports about knowledge and personality with repeated interviews. This award is supported by the MMS Program and a consortium of Federal statistical agencies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.