RAPID: Modeling COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine and Nursing Homes

RAPID：对 COVID-19 冠状病毒疫苗和疗养院进行建模

• 批准号: 2054858
• 负责人: Bruce Lee
• 金额: $ 20万
• 依托单位: Research Foundation of the City University of New York
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-01-15 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2054858&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Modeling; COVID; 19; Coronavirus

Nursing Homes (NHs) have been hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, with NH residents accounting for nearly a quarter of all COVID-19 deaths. This project will help answer key questions about NHs, which are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 coronavirus infections and may be key to slowing the pandemic, and COVID-19 coronavirus vaccines. NH residents may be at a higher risk for COVID-19 coronavirus infections due to their health status, frequent interactions, and close, community-like living quarters. Once infected, residents are also at risk of serious health outcomes as a result of age-related illnesses, advanced chronic conditions, and frailty. Moreover, previous work has shown how NHs are highly interconnected with other healthcare facilities in a region and how an infectious disease outbreak in one nursing home can quickly spread throughout a region. Thus, NHs could further fuel the overall pandemic. COVID-19 coronavirus vaccines are one potential intervention in NHs and this proposed project would help address important questions about COVID-19 coronavirus vaccines. There is a need to better delineate the vaccine characteristics (e.g., efficacy/effectiveness, duration of protection, cost) that vaccine developers should aim for and how best to use different types of vaccines should they reach the market. It will also be helpful to understand the impact of varying prioritization of different populations, coverage, and compliance. A broader impact of this project is a better understanding of how COVID-19 coronavirus spreads in NHs and the impact of vaccination and other interventions. This will help decision makers determine what prevention and control measures should be implemented in NHs and how to implement these measures. This project will entail the development of computational models of selected nursing homes (NHs) and their residents and personnel (including health professionals and staff). The models would represent the layouts of the NH, the specific residents and personnel, their characteristics, and their interactions. Simulations will consider an infected person in the NH transmitting the virus to others through direct contact or potentially through aerosol transmission or surface contamination. Simulation experiments would consider introduction of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) into the nursing home in different ways. This work will explore the effects and value of introducing different types of COVID-19 coronavirus vaccines to the NHs. For example, varying the efficacy, duration of protection, and other characteristics of the vaccine. Additionally, the models could explore the effects of varying vaccination coverage and compliance among different nursing home residents and personnel (e.g., what would happen if different types of residents received the vaccine at different times, which residents and personnel should be prioritized if vaccines are limited). Simulation experiments could also explore the effects of layering on different selected policies and interventions (e.g., wearing face masks, testing, and different types of social distancing) with and without COVID-19 coronavirus vaccines. Developing and attaching a COVID-19 clinical outcomes and costing model to each of the residents and personnel then can help calculate the economic impact and value of different vaccines, policies, and interventions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

疗养院受到新冠肺炎冠状病毒大流行的打击尤为严重，NH居民占新冠肺炎死亡人数的近四分之一。该项目将帮助回答有关国民健康保险制度和新冠肺炎冠状病毒疫苗的关键问题。国民保健制度特别容易受到新冠肺炎冠状病毒的感染，可能是减缓疫情的关键。NH居民可能由于其健康状况、频繁的互动以及封闭的社区式居住场所而面临更高的新冠肺炎冠状病毒感染风险。一旦被感染，居民还面临由于与年龄有关的疾病、严重的慢性病和虚弱而产生严重健康后果的风险。此外，以前的工作已经表明，NHS如何与一个地区的其他医疗机构高度互联，以及一家疗养院爆发的传染病如何迅速传播到整个地区。因此，国民健康保险制度可能会进一步加剧整个大流行。新冠肺炎冠状病毒疫苗是英国国民健康保险制度的一个潜在干预措施，这项拟议的项目将有助于解决有关新冠肺炎冠状病毒疫苗的重要问题。有必要更好地描述疫苗开发者应瞄准的疫苗特性(例如，效力/效力、保护期、成本)，以及在不同类型的疫苗上市后如何最好地使用它们。了解不同人群、覆盖范围和合规性的不同优先顺序的影响也是很有帮助的。该项目的一个更广泛的影响是更好地了解新冠肺炎冠状病毒如何在国民健康保险制度中传播，以及接种疫苗和其他干预措施的影响。这将帮助决策者确定NHS应该实施哪些预防和控制措施，以及如何实施这些措施。该项目将需要开发选定的养老院(NHS)及其居民和人员(包括卫生专业人员和工作人员)的计算模型。这些模型将代表NH的布局、特定的居民和人员、他们的特征以及他们之间的互动。模拟将考虑NH的感染者通过直接接触或可能通过气雾剂传播或表面污染将病毒传播给他人。模拟实验将考虑以不同方式将SARS冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)引入养老院。这项工作将探索将不同类型的新冠肺炎冠状病毒疫苗引入国民保健系统的效果和价值。例如，改变疫苗的效力、保护期和其他特性。此外，这些模型可以探索不同养老院居民和人员之间不同的疫苗接种覆盖率和遵从性的影响(例如，如果不同类型的居民在不同的时间接种疫苗会发生什么，如果疫苗有限，应该优先考虑哪些居民和人员)。模拟实验还可以探索在使用和不使用新冠肺炎冠状病毒疫苗的情况下，分层对不同选定政策和干预措施(例如，戴口罩、测试和不同类型的社交距离)的影响。开发并为每个住院医生和人员附加新冠肺炎临床结果和成本计算模型，然后可以帮助计算不同疫苗、政策和干预措施的经济影响和价值。该奖项反映了国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。