Collaborative Research: P2C2--Coral Proxy and Climate Model Comparison to understand Climate Variability in the Intra-Americas Sea Region

包括加勒比海和墨西哥湾在内的美洲海被认为对全球气候变化高度敏感，对这个拥有1.2亿人口的地区产生直接的社会和经济影响。它是美洲降水的主要水分来源，并包含西半球暖池，暖池驱动夏季降水和飓风强度和频率。然而，该地区环流模式（GCM）和海温资料（SST）的比较表明，较大的冷海温和干降水偏差阻碍了该地区未来气候变率的预测。本项目旨在利用模式数据比较来描述和评估美洲海海温和水文气候的变化，目的是查明模式技能的弱点，以改进未来的预测。具体来说，研究人员将利用七个地点的珊瑚重建1850年以来的水文气候和海温。这些新的过去气候记录及其与直接观测和模式的比较将用于研究该地区年代际海温变率影响该地区和北美水文气候的机制。该项目将利用现有的海温重建，并从现有样本中产生新的珊瑚记录，以解决GCM、观测海温记录和古气候海温重建之间的差异。潜在的更广泛影响包括扩大IAS区域过去海面温度和水文气候的时空数据覆盖范围。其他商业智能包括在年代际时间尺度上对气候变率、其驱动因素及其与大尺度大气环流的联系有更深入的了解。确定气候模式在模拟国际间水文气候变率方面丧失能力的时间段和地理区域，并了解造成这种缺陷的原因，对于提高对国际间气候及其如何影响包括美国在内的周边陆地区域的科学认识非常重要。美洲海内部和沿岸的国家容易受到热带气旋、海平面上升和可用水资源减少的影响。此外，它还将为美洲和加勒比的资源管理人员改进模型衍生产品。该项目将通过现有的在线课程“应对气候变化”开展外展活动，研究人员将提供西班牙语、法语和克里奥尔语的翻译，供各种利益相关者用于气候教育。此外，该项目将支持本科生和研究生的科学培训和专业发展，以及博士后研究人员。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The inter-American Seas, which include the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, is identified as highly sensitive to global climate variability with direct social and economic ramifications for this region of 120 million people. It is a primary moisture source for precipitation in the Americas and contains the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool that drives summer precipitation and hurricane intensity and frequency. The comparison of General circulation models (GCM) and Sea Surface Temperature data (SST) in this region, however, reveals large cold SST and dry precipitation biases hampering predictions of future climate variability in this region. This project aims to characterize and assess SST and hydroclimate variability in the Inter-American Seas using model-data comparison with the goal of pinpointing weaknesses in model skills to improve future projections. Specifically, the researchers will produce reconstructions of hydroclimate and SST using coral from seven locations back to 1850. These new past climate records and their comparison to direct observations and models will be used to investigate the mechanisms through which decadal SST variability in this region impacts the hydroclimate in the region and North America. The project will leverage existing SST reconstructions and produce new coral records from existing samples to address discrepancies among GCM, observational SST records, and paleoclimate SST reconstructions.The potential Broader Impacts include an expansion of the temporal and spatial data coverage of past sea surface temperature and hydroclimate in the IAS region. Other BI include a greater understanding of climate variability at decadal time scales, its drivers and links to large scale atmospheric circulation. Identifying time periods and geographic areas where climate models lose skill in replicating hydroclimate variability in the IAS and understanding the causes for such deficiencies is important for improving the scientific understanding of IAS climate and how it impacts the surrounding land regions, including the United States. Countries within and along the Inter-American Seas are vulnerable to tropical cyclones, sea-level rise, and decreased water availability. Further, it will improve model derived products for resource managers in the Americas and Caribbean. The project will develop outreach activities through an existing online course “managing for a changing climate” for which the researchers will provide translation in Spanish, French and Creole than can be used for climate education by various stakeholders. Additionally, the project will support the scientific training and professional development of undergraduate and graduate students, as well as a postdoctoral researcher.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.