P2C2: Integrating Multiproxy Records of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Last Millennia to Contextualize 21st (twenty-first) Century Events in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

改善美国东南部过去热带气旋（TC）活动的气候记录和相关的大尺度大气驱动机制，将促进对过去TC特征及其在沿海环境中留下的印记的认识和理解。该项目旨在建立一个热带气旋活动的综合多代理数据库，包括过去150年来墨西哥湾北部沿海系统的风暴频率和强度。具体来说，研究人员将比较每年和季节性解决的树木年轮记录，这些记录作为TC的代用物，与沉积物岩心中记录的高强度TC事件的低分辨率记录进行比较。该项目将为nGoM开发一个热带气旋发生的多代理数据库，利用现有的、特定地点的、校准良好的TC沉积物记录，结合TC事件的仪器和历史记录，为美国东南部每个地点开发一个150年的TC事件记录。此外，将重新分析已建立的TC沉积物记录中的粒度，以模拟150年期间的TC浪涌强度。该项目还将通过分析现有的多种树种（主要是湿地松、长叶松和秃柏树）的收集，开发东南地区每年解决的TC活动年轮记录，这些树种已知寿命长（~200 - 2500年），并对整个东南部多个地点的水文气候变化做出反应。研究人员将分析各种示踪剂，包括约150年的环宽度和稳定氧同位素，以校准从沉积物和仪器记录中得出的有限的TC年表。潜在的更广泛的影响包括开发和校准过去150年来墨西哥湾北部热带气旋（tc）数据集。这些数据可用于改进灾害影响评估、沿海生态系统恢复能力和热带气旋预测。鉴于预计的气候变化，尼日尔沿海地区的沿海社区处于极端危险之中。此外，确定受飓风影响最大的地理区域可以使当地利益相关者了解最近的飓风趋势和主要驱动因素，从而改进飓风预报和响应，节约重要的经济、文化和生态资源。该项目的结果将传播给气候建模者、利益相关者、沿海管理人员和政策制定者，为大风、风暴潮和强降雨造成的热带气旋损害的规划提供信息。从这项研究中获得的数据将公开提供。该项目将支持两名早期职业研究人员，并将为阿拉巴马大学塔斯卡卢萨分校的研究生和本科生提供教育、研究培训和专业发展机会。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2)Improving the climate record of past tropical cyclone (TC) activity and related large-scale atmospheric driving mechanisms in the Southeast United States will advance knowledge and understanding of past TC characteristics and their mark left in the coastal environment. This project aims to develop a comprehensive multi-proxy database of tropical cyclone (TC) activity, including storm frequency and intensity throughout the last 150 years for northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) coastal systems. Specifically, the researchers will compare annually to seasonally resolved tree-ring records that act as TC proxies with lower resolution records of high intensity TC events recorded in sediment cores. The project will develop a multi-proxy database of tropical cyclone occurrence for the nGoM by using existing, site-specific, well-calibrated sediment records of TCs in conjunction with instrumental and historical records of TC events to develop a 150-year record of TC events for each site in southeastern US. Additionally, particle size from established sediment records of TCs will be re-analyzed to model TC surge intensity over the 150-year period. The project will also develop annually resolved tree-ring records of TC activity for the Southeast by analyzing extant collections of multiple tree species (principally slash pine, longleaf pine, and bald cypress) that are known to be long-lived (~200–2,500 years), and are responsive to hydroclimatic variability, in multiple locations throughout the Southeast. The researchers will analyze various tracers including ring width and stable oxygen isotopes for a period of ~150 years to calibrate against the constrained TC chronology developed from sediment and instrumental records. The potential Broader Impacts include the development and calibration of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) data set over the last 150 years for the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM). This data can be used to improve assessments of hazard impact, coastal ecosystem resiliency, and predictions of Tropical Cyclones. Coastal communities along the nGoM coast are at extreme risk in the light of projected climate change. Additionally, identifying geographic regions of greatest impact from TCs can inform local stakeholders on recent TC trends and the primary drivers, thus improving hurricane forecasts and response, and saving economic, cultural, and ecologically important resources. The results of the project will be disseminated to climate modelers, and to stakeholders, coastal managers, and policy makers to inform planning for TC damage from high winds, storm surge, and intense rainfall. Data developed from this research will be made publicly available. The project will support two early career researchers and will provide educational, research training and professional development opportunities for graduate and undergraduate students at University of Alabama Tuscaloosa.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.