Collaborative Research: Anthropogenic water management, Climate Change, and Environmental Sustainability in the Southwestern US (ACCESS)

由于供应减少和需求增加，人们对美国西南部的水安全越来越担忧。该地区的水文正在发生变化，可能严重破坏供水、农业生产、发电和依赖河流的生态系统。尤其令人担忧的是科罗拉多河的流量下降，这条河是西南七个州4000多万人的命脉。频繁和持续的干旱使科罗拉多河的水库水位降至历史最低点，如果目前的趋势继续下去，人们担心会出现水危机。该项目考察了美国西南部未来的水需求是否可以在预测的气候和当前的水管理实践下满足，同时保持环境流量要求，如果不能，是否有实现可持续性的替代方法。该项目直接吸引区域利益相关者参与，共同制定研究的关键方面，并确保可交付成果对改善水资源管理具有最大价值。它还为K-12和本科生提供了关于国家最紧迫的水资源可持续性问题之一的曝光。该项目使用来自最先进的水文建模系统的高分辨率长期水文模拟，系统地研究气候变化下供水减少、未来需求和水管理（如水库运行、地下水利用和流域外调水）在缓解气候影响方面的作用之间的复杂相互作用。该项目的具体目标是：(1)量化未来水供应和需求的变化，并研究其时空趋势和变异；(2)研究地表水库和地下水储存量的变化，并量化与未来干旱加剧相关的储存量枯竭的风险；(3)与区域利益相关者共同开发潜在的可持续发展路径，考虑部门间水资源利用和环境流量需求之间的权衡，并在一系列气候变化和社会经济增长情景下评估这些路径。通过考虑各种气候变化和水资源利用情景，结合利益相关者知情的管理方案，该项目全面考察了美国西南部水资源可持续发展的各种可能途径。该项目开发的综合建模框架将在高度缺水地区模拟自然-人类耦合系统的能力方面取得重大进展。项目成果将用于为水资源管理提供信息，并教育K-12和大学生了解气候变化下日益严重的水资源短缺问题。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

There have been growing concerns about water security in the southwestern US because of dwindling supplies and rising demands. The hydrology of the region is changing in ways that could critically undermine water supplies, agricultural production, power generation, and river-dependent ecosystems. Of particular concern is the declining flows in the Colorado River, a lifeblood for over 40 million people in seven southwestern states. Frequent and prolonged droughts have brought reservoir water levels in the Colorado River to record lows, raising concerns about a water crisis if current trends continue. This project examines whether future water demands in the southwestern US can be met under projected climate and current water management practices while maintaining environmental flow requirements, and if not, whether there are alternative approaches to achieving sustainability. The project directly engages regional stakeholders for participation in co-producing key aspects of the research and ensuring deliverables that are of the greatest value for improved water resource management. It also provides exposure to K-12 and undergraduate students regarding one of the nation’s most pressing water resource sustainability issues. The project uses high-resolution, long-term hydrologic simulations from a state-of-the-art hydrological modeling system to systematically examine the complex interplay between decreased water supplies under climate change, future demands, and the role of water management (e.g., reservoir operation, groundwater use, and out of basin water transfer) in mitigating climate impacts. The specific project objectives are to (1) quantify the future changes in water supplies and demands and examine their spatio-temporal trends and variabilities, (2) examine the changes in surface reservoir and groundwater storages, and quantify risks of storage depletion associated with intensified future droughts, and (3) co-develop potential sustainability pathways with regional stakeholders by considering tradeoffs between competing inter-sectoral water use and environmental flow requirements, and evaluate these pathways under a range of climate change and socio-economic growth scenarios. By considering various climate change and water use scenarios, combined with stakeholder-informed management options, the project holistically examines various possible pathways for water resource sustainability in the southwestern US. The integrated modeling framework developed in this project will provide major advances in the ability to simulate coupled natural-human systems in highly water-scarce regions. Project outcomes will be used in informing water resource management and educating K-12 and college students on growing water scarcity issues under climate change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.