CNH2-S: Water-mediated coupling of natural-human systems: drought and water allocation across spatial scales

在该国的许多地区，河流是灌溉、娱乐、城市和发电等用途的主要水源。每次用水都有不同的经济价值。此外，从每条河流取水可能遵循不同的制度规则系统，例如私人拥有的“水权”与公共水分配系统。水的价值差异加上当地的规则制度，可能会在经济上和环境可持续性方面产生更多或更少的生产结果。这些差异的影响在不同尺度和气候状况下都没有得到很好的理解，但众所周知，在缺水时期，例如干旱，任何差异都会加剧。为了研究这些相互作用，本研究计划结合不同河流系统的水文，基础设施和经济模型，并评估一系列水分配系统的结果。所调查的水资源分配制度范围很广，从基于既定水权的较为严格的制度，到将水用于最高价值用途的制度。建模框架允许分析系统在不同的空间尺度和河流，主要是从融雪与降雨接收水。随着人口的增长和气候变化，用于管理水的规则将需要发展和适应，强调了这项研究的重要性。对水的需求超过了许多河流系统在干旱易发的美国西部的供应。这种短缺需要加强知识的联系和反馈之间的自然变化的水的可用性和人类的决定，管理水运动在这些流供应系统。在这些系统中，水被用于农业、娱乐、市政、发电和其他活动，每种活动都有不同的水价值。自然系统的变化，特别是干旱，限制了可供人类使用的总水量。水分配规则和现有的水基础设施将自然和人类部分联系起来。拟议的努力将增进对水文、气候和经济进程如何在各种干旱强度和空间尺度上共同决定水的价值和分配的认识。以往的研究表明，反馈和阈值影响水文和社会系统之间的耦合。然而，需要开发和评估先进的建模方法，以更充分地了解不同流域的人与自然相互作用的影响。拟议的研究将开发一个新的系统，用于模拟以水为中心的耦合人类和自然系统，该系统利用可操作的水分配模型将水文和经济组成部分联系起来。这种架构将能够直接评估两种基于代理人的人类行为模型（微观经济与基于制度的规则）如何在一系列条件和尺度上产生不同的结果。对水资源日益增长的需求和不断变化的气候将需要新的水资源管理方法，突出了这项研究的重要性。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

In many parts of the country, rivers are the primary water source for uses such as irrigation, recreation, cities, and power generation. Each water use has a different economic value. Also, the withdrawal of water from each river may follow a different institutional rule-system, for example private ownership of ‘water rights’ versus a public system of water allocation. Differences in the value of water combined with the local rule-system can lead to more- or less-productive outcomes, both economically and in terms of environmental sustainability. The effects of these differences are not well understood across scales and climate regimes, but it is known that any differences will be exacerbated during periods of water scarcity, e.g. droughts. To investigate these interactions, this research plan combines models of hydrology, infrastructure, and economics for different river systems and evaluates outcomes following a range of water allocation systems. The investigated water allocation systems span a spectrum ranging from more rigid systems based on established water rights, to those in which water goes to the highest-value uses. The modeling framework permits analyzing systems at different spatial scales and for rivers that primarily receive water from snowmelt versus rainfall. As populations grow and climate changes, the rules used to manage water will need to evolve and adapt, underscoring the importance of this research.The demand for water exceeds supply for many river systems in the drought-prone western U.S. This shortfall necessitates enhanced knowledge of the linkages and feedbacks between the natural variations in water availability and the human decisions that govern water movement in these stream-supplied systems. In these systems, water is used for agriculture, recreation, municipal uses, power generation, and other activities—each with a different valuation of water. Variations in the natural system, in particular drought, constrain the total amount of water available for human use. Water allocation rules and available water infrastructure connect the natural and human components. The proposed effort will advance knowledge of how hydrologic, climatic and economic processes jointly determine the value and allocation of water, across a range of drought intensities and spatial scales. Previous studies have shown that feedbacks and thresholds influence the coupling between hydrologic and societal systems. Yet, development and evaluation of advanced modeling approaches is needed to more fully understand the implications of human-natural interactions for different watersheds. The proposed research will develop a new system for modeling water-focused coupled human and natural systems that utilizes an operational water allocation model to link the hydrologic and economic components. This architecture will enable a direct evaluation of how two contrasting agent-based models of human behavior (microeconomic versus institutional-based rules) yield different outcomes across a range of conditions and scales. The growing demands for water and changing climate will require new ways of managing water, highlighting the importance of this research.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.