HSI Planning Project: Development of an Early Attrition Predictive Model for STEM Majors at a Major Hispanic-Serving Institution

在改进的本科生STEM教育：拉美裔服务机构(HSI计划)的支持下，这项Track 1：PPP提案旨在对STEM早期流失进行机构范围的评估，以便为预测模型的开发提供信息，该模型将识别STEM专业的学生有离开STEM或完全辍学的风险，并根据他们的风险因素对这些学生进行分组。认识到以赤字为导向的模型不能完全解释西班牙裔和其他STEM专业代表不足的少数族裔的高自然减少率，拟议的模型将使用机构数据(例如，学生人口统计、社会经济状况、大学前特征、入学模式、学业表现和体制因素)和对STEM专业的学生和校友进行的有效调查的结果，以确定可以从制度上解决的风险因素。这样做将允许制定有针对性的干预措施，以减轻模型在未来提交的轨道2中确定的风险因素，它将为学生提供工具和资源，帮助确保他们保留并成功完成STEM专业并进入研究生STEM职业生涯。这项建议的目的是(1)与关键机构数据库合作收集学生指标，(2)对离开该专业的队列中的学生进行调查，以了解他们离开约翰·杰伊学院STEM专业的原因；(3)开发和验证预测模型，以确定不同学生分组之间的自然减员模式和与自然减员相关的因素是否不同。PI团队假设不同的因素会影响不同学生的流失，这些因素可以通过干预(如辅导、社会支持、补救、财务咨询等)进行预测和缓解。最终目标是(4)与与本科毕业相关的主要办公室、一名训练有素的心理学家和一名独立评估员合作，制定一组干预措施和对这些干预措施进行严格评估的计划，作为未来NSF HSI计划第二轨道的提案提交。这项提案中产生的知识将以同行评议的文献发表，并与其他希望解决STEM专业流失率问题的少数族裔和拉美裔服务机构分享。该模型本身将与其他机构共享，以使它们能够分析影响其机构自然减员的因素。NSF HSI计划旨在加强本科生STEM教育，扩大STEM的参与，并建设HSIS的能力。鉴于高等教育机构的不同性质和背景，实现这些目标需要创新的方法来激励机构和社区的变革，并促进基础研究(I)关于学生参与式学习，(Ii)关于如何有效地多样化和增加对STEM的参与，以及(Iii)提高我们对如何在高等教育机构建设机构能力的理解。HSI计划支持的项目将从这些方法中获得如何实现这些目标的新知识。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

With support from the Improving Undergraduate STEM Education: Hispanic-Serving Institutions (HSI Program), this Track 1: PPP proposal aims to undertake an institutional-wide assessment of early STEM attrition to inform the development of a predictive model that will identify students in STEM majors who are at risk of leaving STEM or dropping out entirely, and group these students according to their risk factors. Recognizing that deficit-oriented models fail to fully explain the high-level of attrition of Hispanics and other underrepresented minorities from STEM majors, the proposed model will use both institutional data (e.g., student demographics, socioeconomic status, pre-college characteristics, enrollment patterns, academic performance, and institutional factors) and results of validated surveys administered to students and alumni who have attrited from a STEM major to identify risk factors that can be addressed institutionally. Doing so will allow the development of targeted interventions that mitigate the risk factors identified by the model in a future Track 2 submission, which will be designed to provide students with the tools and resources that will help ensure their retention and successful completion of a STEM major and entry into a post-graduate STEM career.The aims of this proposal are to (1) work with key institutional data repositories to gather student metrics and (2) administer surveys to students from cohorts who have left the major to understand their reasons for leaving the STEM majors at John Jay College to (3) develop and validate a predictive model to identify whether patterns of attrition and factors related to attrition differ across subgroups of students. The PI team hypothesizes that different factors will affect attrition of different students, and that these factors can be predicted and mitigated with intervention (e.g. tutoring, social support, remediation, financial counseling, etc.). The final aim is to (4) work with the major offices associated with undergraduate completion, a trained psychologist, and an independent evaluator to develop a cohort of interventions and a plan for rigorous evaluation of these interventions for submission as a future NSF HSI program Track 2 proposal. The knowledge generated in this proposal will be published in peer-reviewed literature and shared with other minority- and Hispanic-serving institutions that wish to address attrition rates of STEM majors. The model itself will be shared with other HSIs to allow them to analyze the factors affecting attrition at their institutions. The NSF HSI Program aims to enhance undergraduate STEM education, broaden participation in STEM, and build capacity at HSIs. Achieving these aims, given the diverse nature and context of HSIs, requires innovative approaches that incentivize institutional and community transformation and promote fundamental research (i) on engaged student learning, (ii) about what it takes to diversify and increase participation in STEM effectively, and (iii) that improves our understanding of how to build institutional capacity at HSIs. Projects supported by the HSI Program will draw from these approaches to generate new knowledge on how to achieve these aims.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.