The Dynamics of Illicit Governance

非法治理的动态[i]: Javier Osorio，亚利桑那大学[摘要]越来越多的武装分子，如犯罪集团、叛乱分子和准军事组织，不仅参与暴力活动，而且在一些国家的地方层面提供治理。因此，本项目试图解释有组织犯罪集团为何、以何种方式以及在何处建立对地方经济、社会和政治活动的非法治理结构。为了检查非法的治理结构，该项目将使用在线专家调查来收集数据以及比较次国家的实地调查。该项目的研究结果将有助于了解美国寻求支持国家政府、维持政治稳定和遏制国内冲突的国家非法治理的原因，从而有助于美国的国家安全。该项目的分析框架解释了不同非法市场的劳动力/资本密集度及其在领土上的集中/扩散如何影响暴力和非法治理的动态。该框架还考虑到犯罪与国家之间的关系以及敌对犯罪集团之间的相互作用。为了对非法治理结构进行实证检验，该项目将利用在线专家调查从数百名安全专家那里收集数据。然后将对从专家调查和其他来源收集的数据进行统计分析，以检验理论框架的实证含义。定量分析将采用各种准实验识别策略来加强因果推理。将进行比较次国家定性案例研究，以说明和评估统计结果提出的因果机制。该项目的研究成果将推动失败国家、受冲突影响国家的非国家行为体治理、犯罪组织和腐败以及民主倒退等领域的学术文献。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The Dynamics of Illicit GovernancePI: Javier Osorio, University of ArizonaAbstractIncreasingly armed actors, such as criminal groups, insurgents, and paramilitaries, not only engage in violence but also provide governance at the local level in some countries. This project therefore seeks to explain why, which, and where organized criminal groups develop illicit governance structures over local economic, social, and political activities. To examine illicit governance structures, the project will use online-expert surveys to collect data as well as comparative subnational fieldwork. The findings of this project will contribute to U.S. national security by advancing an understanding of the causes of illicit governance in countries where the U.S. seeks to support national governments, maintain political stability, and contain civil conflicts. The project’s analytical framework explains how the degree of labor/capital intensity of different illicit markets and their territorial concentration/diffusion shape the dynamics of violence and illicit governance. This framework also takes into consideration criminal-state relationships and interactions between rival criminal groups. To empirically examine illicit governance structures, the project will utilize an online-expert survey to collect data from hundreds of security experts. Data collected from the expert surveys and other sources will then be statistically analyzed in order to test the empirical implications of the theoretical framework. The quantitative analyses will employ a variety of quasi-experimental identification strategies to strengthen causal inference. Comparative subnational qualitative case research will be conducted to illustrate and assess causal mechanisms suggested by the statistical results. The findings of this project will advance scholarly literatures in areas such as failed states, non-state actor governance in conflict-affected countries, criminal organizations and corruption, and democratic back-sliding.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.