Analysis of Impacts of Environmental and Natural Hazards on Human Migration

环境和自然灾害对人类迁徙的影响分析

• 批准号: 2117405
• 负责人: Elizabeth Fussell
• 金额: $ 66.11万
• 依托单位: Brown University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2025-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2117405&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Analysis; Impacts; Environmental; Natural; Hazards

Climate-related hazards are expected to permanently or temporarily displace millions of people around the world in the coming decades. In the US, coastal cities face the twin threats of sea-level rise and more intense tropical storms, with extreme precipitation contributing to more flood events, while Western states are primed by climate-related warming and drying for increased wildfire activity. Federal, state, and local governments have invested in hazard mitigation and adaptation to reinforce settlements against these environmental hazards, but increasingly scientists and policy actors are acknowledging that climate migration is inevitable. A coupled human and environmental understanding of the hazard-migration relationship anchored in the social sciences is critical for policy development around post-disaster rebuilding, population relocation, and managed retreat. The project creates a new dataset called the Dataset on Environment-Migration Systems (DEMS) to investigate the effects of highly destructive climate-related hazards such as tropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires on migration behavior for the US population as well as for population subgroups defined by age, sex, race, ethnicity, and nativity during the past 20 years. These hazards differ in their spatial and temporal scales, frequency, and the mechanisms by which they affect communities and provide contrasts to support investigations that build a broad understanding of hazard-driven human migration and why some demographic groups may be more prone to climate migration. To achieve the overarching project goal of understanding the effects of climate-related hazards on migration behavior, the work is structured around three core objectives: 1) construction of a new spatiotemporal dataset to support analyses of environmental hazards and internal US migration; 2) investigation of relationships between environmental hazards and the redistribution of the population as a whole and by sociodemographic sub-groups; and 3) support of public use of the DEMS.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

预计在未来几十年里，与气候有关的灾害将使世界各地数百万人永久或暂时流离失所。在美国，沿海城市面临着海平面上升和更强烈的热带风暴的双重威胁，极端降水导致了更多的洪水事件，而西部各州则受到气候相关的变暖和干燥的影响，野火活动增加。联邦、州和地方政府已经在减轻和适应灾害方面进行了投资，以加强对这些环境危害的解决，但越来越多的科学家和政策参与者承认，气候移民是不可避免的。以社会科学为基础，将人类和环境对灾害-移民关系的理解结合起来，对于制定灾后重建、人口搬迁和管理撤退的政策至关重要。该项目创建了一个名为“环境-移民系统数据集”（dem）的新数据集，以调查过去20年来与气候相关的高度破坏性灾害（如热带气旋、洪水和野火）对美国人口以及按年龄、性别、种族、民族和出生地定义的人口子群体的迁移行为的影响。这些灾害在时空尺度、频率和影响社区的机制上各不相同，并为支持调查提供了对比，这些调查有助于广泛了解灾害驱动的人类迁移，以及为什么某些人口群体可能更容易发生气候迁移。为了实现了解气候相关危害对移民行为影响的总体项目目标，研究工作围绕三个核心目标展开：1)构建新的时空数据集，以支持环境危害和美国内部移民的分析；2)调查环境危害与人口再分配之间的关系，并按社会人口亚群体进行调查；3)支持公众使用dem。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。