Planning Grant: Engineering Research Center for Precision Meteorology (ERC-PM)

工程研究中心规划奖助金竞赛是作为ERC计划的试点征集活动进行的。计划拨款并不是整个ERC竞赛的一部分，而是为了在团队之间建立能力，以计划集中的、中心规模的工程研究。正如许多人从经验中知道的那样，天气预报是一门不精确的科学，依赖于许多不同预测的平均结果。因此，预测往往在预测程度上不准确，并在时间、地点或严重性等重要细节上遗漏标记。并不罕见的是，这一预测完全错误，有时还会带来灾难性的后果。虽然大规模的天气预报在过去几十年里有所改善，但我们可以实现局部范围的准确天气预报，但如果不改变范式，改变天气事业，并解决我们许多由食物、能源、交通和气候引发的天气挑战，这是不可能的。如果成功，这项倡议将为广大公众带来广泛的好处。考虑以下情景：想象一下，如果机场对结冰时间有可靠的预测，如果种植者得到保证，附近农场的风生真菌不会漂移到他们的田地里，如果第一反应人员知道局部的风向变化，控制着野火传播或可能受到洪水影响的地点的暴雨。考虑从准确的本地预测中获得的年度收益，以优化风电场生产和太阳能输出。想象一个低空不可见的风切变和晴朗空气湍流的航空预警网络。想象一下，在城市和农村的微尺度天气预报的支持下，高度可靠的自主空中出租车和送货网络。考虑解除对偏头痛患者和其他因天气导致的健康问题的预先警告。想一想使用移动、灵活的大气观测系统来缓解恶劣天气警告和相关紧急反应方面的差异的可能性。有了精密气象学，这些和其他尚未想象的机会将成为可能。因此，该团队提出了一项规划拨款，以评估拟议的精密气象工程研究中心。高精度、及时、本地规模的天气预报-精密气象-将使影响社会的一系列问题的解决方案成为可能，包括粮食、能源和气候相关挑战。提高微尺度气象模式的精度，从而提高局地预报的关键是将低层大气(包括大气边界层)内增加的现场观测与优化的高分辨率数值天气预报(NWP)相结合，以利用这些观测。增加ABL观测的一项关键使能技术包括无人驾驶飞机系统(UAS)；在ABL及更远的地方出现了被证明具有传感价值的技术，引发了气象观测科学基础的重大转变。优化这些测量和数值天气预报之间的耦合，以最大限度地发挥影响，需要工程学、大气科学、数据科学和社会科学之间的融合研究。如果成功，该中心将通过数据启用的本地化天气预报实现经济和社会影响，在当前气象预报的基础上提供显著的提前期、准确性和分辨率改进。通过综合的方法，我们相信精密气象中心(CPM)将实现这一愿景。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The Planning Grants for Engineering Research Centers competition was run as a pilot solicitation within the ERC program. Planning grants are not required as part of the full ERC competition, but intended to build capacity among teams to plan for convergent, center-scale engineering research.As many people know from experience, weather forecasting is an imprecise science that relies on averaging results from many different predictions. Thus, forecasts are often inaccurate in the degree of prediction and miss the mark in important details of timing, location, or severity. Not uncommonly, the forecast is just plain wrong with sometimes disastrous consequences. While weather forecasts at the large scale have improved over the last few decades, accurate weather prediction at local scales is within our reach, but not possible without paradigm changes that will transform the weather enterprise and unlock solutions to many of our food, energy, transportation, and climate-triggered weather challenges. If successful, this initiative will have a broad range of benefits to the general public. Consider the following scenarios: Imagine if airports had reliable predictions of when icing will end, if a grower was assured that the wind-born fungus at a nearby farm would not drift into their fields, and if first responders knew of localized wind shifts governing wildfire spread or heavy rain in locations likely to be impacted by flooding. Consider annual gains from accurate local prediction for optimized wind farm production and solar energy output. Picture an aviation warning network for invisible wind shear and clear air turbulence at low altitudes. Imagine highly reliable autonomous air taxi and delivery networks enabled by microscale weather prediction in urban and rural settings. Consider the relief of advance warning for migraine sufferers and others with weather-induced health issues. Think of the possibility to alleviate disparities in severe weather warnings and associated emergency response using a mobile, flexible atmospheric observing system. These and other opportunities yet to be imagined will be possible with Precision Meteorology. Therefore, this team proposes a planning grant to evaluate a proposed Engineering Research Center for Precision Meteorology.Highly accurate, timely, local-scale weather prediction - Precision Meteorology - will enable solutions to issues that impact a broad array of problems impacting society, including food, energy, and climate related challenges. The key to improving accuracy of microscale meteorological models, and thus local prediction, is to couple increased in situ observations within the lower atmosphere, including the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), with high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) optimized to utilize these observations. A key enabling technology for increasing ABL observations includes Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS); emerging with proven value for sensing in the ABL and beyond, initiating a significant shift in the scientific foundations of meteorological observations. Optimizing the coupling between these measurements and numerical weather prediction to maximize impact requires convergent research among engineering, atmospheric science, data science, and social science. If successful, this center will achieve economic and societal impacts through data-enabled localized weather prediction offering significant lead-time, accuracy, and resolution improvements over current meteorological predictions. Through a comprehensive approach, we believe a Center for Precision Meteorology (CPM) will achieve this vision.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.