Planning Grant: Engineering Research Center for Precision Meteorology (ERC-PM)

工程研究中心规划拨款竞赛是ERC项目的试点征集。规划补助金不需要作为ERC竞赛的一部分，但它旨在在团队之间建立能力，以规划聚合的、中心规模的工程研究。正如许多人从经验中知道的那样，天气预报是一门不精确的科学，它依赖于许多不同预测的平均结果。因此，预测在预测程度上往往是不准确的，在时间、地点或严重程度等重要细节上往往是不准确的。通常情况下，预测是完全错误的，有时会带来灾难性的后果。虽然在过去的几十年里，大规模的天气预报已经得到了改善，但在局部范围内进行准确的天气预报是我们可以做到的，但如果没有范式变革，这将改变天气企业，并为我们的许多食品、能源、交通和气候引发的天气挑战提供解决方案，这是不可能的。如果成功，这一举措将为公众带来广泛的利益。想想下面的场景：想象一下，如果机场有可靠的预测何时结冰会结束，如果种植者确信附近农场的风生真菌不会飘到他们的田地里，如果急救人员知道局部的风向变化会影响野火的蔓延或大雨可能会受到洪水的影响。考虑对优化风电场生产和太阳能输出的准确本地预测的年度收益。想象一下，在低空有一个航空警报网络，用来预报看不见的风切变和晴空乱流。想象一下，在城市和农村环境中，通过微尺度天气预报实现高度可靠的自动空中出租车和配送网络。想想偏头痛患者和其他有天气导致的健康问题的人的提前预警。考虑使用机动灵活的大气观测系统来缓解恶劣天气预警和相关应急反应方面的差异的可能性。这些和其他尚未被想象的机会将在精确气象学中成为可能。因此，本小组提出一项计划拨款，以评估拟议中的精密气象学工程研究中心。高度准确、及时、局地尺度的天气预报——精密气象——将为影响社会的一系列广泛问题提供解决方案，包括食品、能源和气候相关挑战。要提高微尺度气象模式的精度，进而提高局部预报的精度，关键是将低层大气（包括大气边界层）的原位观测数据与高分辨率数值天气预报（NWP）相结合，以优化这些观测数据。增加ABL观测的关键使能技术包括无人机系统（UAS）；在ABL及其他地区的遥感方面具有已被证实的价值，从而开始了气象观测科学基础的重大转变。优化这些测量和数值天气预报之间的耦合，以最大限度地发挥影响，需要工程、大气科学、数据科学和社会科学之间的融合研究。如果成功，该中心将通过数据支持的局部天气预报实现经济和社会影响，提供比当前气象预报显著的交货时间、准确性和分辨率改进。通过全面的方法，我们相信精密气象中心（CPM）将实现这一愿景。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The Planning Grants for Engineering Research Centers competition was run as a pilot solicitation within the ERC program. Planning grants are not required as part of the full ERC competition, but intended to build capacity among teams to plan for convergent, center-scale engineering research.As many people know from experience, weather forecasting is an imprecise science that relies on averaging results from many different predictions. Thus, forecasts are often inaccurate in the degree of prediction and miss the mark in important details of timing, location, or severity. Not uncommonly, the forecast is just plain wrong with sometimes disastrous consequences. While weather forecasts at the large scale have improved over the last few decades, accurate weather prediction at local scales is within our reach, but not possible without paradigm changes that will transform the weather enterprise and unlock solutions to many of our food, energy, transportation, and climate-triggered weather challenges. If successful, this initiative will have a broad range of benefits to the general public. Consider the following scenarios: Imagine if airports had reliable predictions of when icing will end, if a grower was assured that the wind-born fungus at a nearby farm would not drift into their fields, and if first responders knew of localized wind shifts governing wildfire spread or heavy rain in locations likely to be impacted by flooding. Consider annual gains from accurate local prediction for optimized wind farm production and solar energy output. Picture an aviation warning network for invisible wind shear and clear air turbulence at low altitudes. Imagine highly reliable autonomous air taxi and delivery networks enabled by microscale weather prediction in urban and rural settings. Consider the relief of advance warning for migraine sufferers and others with weather-induced health issues. Think of the possibility to alleviate disparities in severe weather warnings and associated emergency response using a mobile, flexible atmospheric observing system. These and other opportunities yet to be imagined will be possible with Precision Meteorology. Therefore, this team proposes a planning grant to evaluate a proposed Engineering Research Center for Precision Meteorology.Highly accurate, timely, local-scale weather prediction - Precision Meteorology - will enable solutions to issues that impact a broad array of problems impacting society, including food, energy, and climate related challenges. The key to improving accuracy of microscale meteorological models, and thus local prediction, is to couple increased in situ observations within the lower atmosphere, including the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), with high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) optimized to utilize these observations. A key enabling technology for increasing ABL observations includes Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS); emerging with proven value for sensing in the ABL and beyond, initiating a significant shift in the scientific foundations of meteorological observations. Optimizing the coupling between these measurements and numerical weather prediction to maximize impact requires convergent research among engineering, atmospheric science, data science, and social science. If successful, this center will achieve economic and societal impacts through data-enabled localized weather prediction offering significant lead-time, accuracy, and resolution improvements over current meteorological predictions. Through a comprehensive approach, we believe a Center for Precision Meteorology (CPM) will achieve this vision.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.