Collaborative Research: ANSWERS: Prediction of Geoeffective Solar Eruptions, Geomagnetic Indices, and Thermospheric Density Using Machine Learning Methods

了解和预测太阳喷发及其对地球的影响是一项研究，也是国家战略优先事项，因为这种空间天气会影响我们的电子通信、电力供应、卫星基础设施、国防等。这个项目是罗格斯大学、新泽西理工学院、西弗吉尼亚大学和蒙特克莱尔州立大学的合作项目，将提高我们预测几个相互关联的空间天气成分的能力：地球有效的太阳喷发，地球对这些喷发的全球磁响应，以及地球热层中中性密度的变化及其对卫星阻力的影响。这项工作涵盖了地球空间科学、太阳物理和包括机器学习在内的数据科学的许多方面。从该项目开发的创新机器学习工具将适用于分析天文学和其他科学领域的不同数据集。教职员工、包括一名博士后在内的早期职业研究人员和研究生将在该项目上合作，为未来几代科学家创建一个多学科培训计划。该项目将通过研究工作和教育活动，如K-12教师工作坊，强调多样性和代表性不足的少数群体的参与。两个关键的科学问题是：地球效应太阳喷发开始的物理机制是什么？太阳喷发对热层中的中性密度有什么影响？具体地说，该项目将利用第23和24太阳活动周的地面和空间数据制作合成矢量磁图；根据磁图参数开发机器学习工具来预测太阳耀斑和相关的地球有效日冕物质抛射；根据太阳活动区域和日冕物质抛射、太阳风参数和太阳图像的磁特性预测地磁指数；并利用磁学方法预测热层的中性密度，这一方法将卫星数据、观测和预测的地磁指数以及经验中性密度模型整合在一起。大部分资金将用于支持三名研究生(一名在西弗吉尼亚大学，两名在NJIT)和一名罗格斯大学的博士后。蒙特克莱尔州立大学将组织K-12教师讲习班。Answers项目通过填补关于日地耦合系统的关键知识空白，促进了国家的STEM专业知识和社会对空间天气灾害的适应能力。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Understanding and predicting eruptions on the Sun and their terrestrial impacts are a research as well as strategic national priority, as such space weather affects our electronic communication, electric power supply, satellite infrastructure, national defense, and more. This project is a collaboration among Rutgers University, New Jersey Institute of Technology, West Virginia University, and Montclair State University that will improve our ability to predict several linked space weather components: geoeffective solar eruptions, the global magnetic response of Earth to these eruptions, as well as variation of neutral density in the Earth’s thermosphere and its effect on satellite drag. The work covers many aspects of geospace science, solar physics, and data science including machine learning. The innovative machine learning tools developed from the project will be applicable for analyzing disparate data sets in astronomy and other areas of science. Faculty members, early career researchers including a postdoctoral fellow and graduate students will collaborate on the project, creating a multidisciplinary training program for future generations of scientists. The project will emphasize diversity and the participation of underrepresented minorities through both the research efforts and education activities such as K-12 teacher workshops.The two key science questions are: What are the physical mechanisms for the onset of geoeffective solar eruptions? And what are the effects of solar eruptions on neutral density in the thermosphere? Specifically, the project will create synthetic vector magnetograms using ground- and space-based data for solar cycles 23 and 24; develop machine learning (ML) tools to predict solar flares and associated geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) based on magnetogram parameters; predict geomagnetic indices from derived magnetic properties of solar active regions and CMEs, solar wind parameters and solar images; and predict neutral density in the thermosphere using ML approaches that integrate satellite data, observed and predicted geomagnetic indices, and empirical neutral density models. Most of the funding will be used to support three graduate students (one at WVU and two at NJIT) and a postdoc at Rutgers. K-12 teacher workshops will be organized by Montclair State University. ANSWERS projects advance the nation’s STEM expertise and societal resilience to space weather hazards by filling key knowledge gaps regarding the coupled Sun-Earth system.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.