Aerosol-Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions: Responses, Mechanisms and Feedbacks in the North Atlantic

气溶胶-大气-海洋相互作用:北大西洋的反应、机制和反馈

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    2153486
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2022-05-15 至 2025-04-30
  • 项目状态:
    未结题

项目摘要

The North Atlantic, meaning the Atlantic Ocean north of the equator, warms and cools over multiple decades, with basin-wide cooling in the early 1900s, warming in the mid-century, cooling from about 1960 to the millenium, and slight warming since then. The warming and cooling have a variety of climatic effects, including changes in the number of hurricanes each summer, the abundance of rainfall in the southeast US and North Africa, and winter temperatures in Europe. A particularly severe example is the prolonged Sahel drought that occurred during the cooling period after 1960.The causes of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations are not clear and there is considerable debate as to whether they are the result of natural climate variability or are externally forced. On the natural variability side SST could change due to the speeding up and slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), in which cold water sinks in the high northern latitudes, circulates around the world at depth, and returns after upwelling to the surface south of the equator. On the external forcing side there is considerable interest in the effects of anthropogenic aerosols, which cool the sea surface by reflecting sunlight back to space. Aerosol emission from North America became more intensive throughout the midcentury but diminished starting in the 1960s, thus modulation of Atlantic SSTs by upstream aerosol sources is a credible theory. The debate between proponents of internal variability and external forcing has not yet been resolved, for reasons including the short observational record (only two full cycles), the lack of AMOC observations, and the lack of long-term measurement of aerosol concentrations over the oceans.Research under this award addresses the question of internal variability versus external forcing using climate model simulations and observational datasets. The work takes advantage of large ensembles of simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the difference between individual simulations is due purely to natural climate system variability. In particular the project uses simulation ensembles of 20th century climate in which one type of external forcing is removed, for instance one ensemble excludes greenhouse gas increases but retains aerosols, land cover change, volcanic eruptions, etc.. The all-but-one simulation suite includes an ensemble which omits only the aerosols from biomass burning while retaining industrial aerosols, and another which omits only industrial aerosols. The project uses these simulations to look at possible differences in the effects of the two aerosol types. In addition, the project generates new simulations using a configuration in which AMOC influence is ruled out by replacing the ocean with a motionless "slab". The project also goes beyond the common assumption that the SST variability is either due to internal variability or external forcing and explores the possibility that the AMOC is itself affected by anthropogenic aerosols.The work has societal value due to the wide-ranging effects of changes in North Atlantic SSTs. In particular it informs efforts to predict climate variations in the North Atlantic sector including some which use climate models to predict the future evolution of the AMOC. The project conducts community outreach in various ways including participation in Riverside community events, partnership with local organizations including the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute, and engagement with K-12 students through the Geoscience Education Outreach Program (GEOP). In addition, the project provides support and training to two graduate students and two undergraduates.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
北大西洋,即赤道以北的大西洋,在几十年内变暖和变冷,在20世纪初整个流域变冷,在本世纪中叶变暖,从1960年到千禧年冷却,从那时起略有变暖。 气候变暖和变冷会产生各种气候影响,包括每年夏季飓风数量的变化,美国东南部和北非的降雨量以及欧洲冬季气温的变化。 一个特别严重的例子是1960年以后的冷却期发生的萨赫勒地区长期干旱。北大西洋海表温度波动的原因尚不清楚,关于它们是自然气候变化的结果还是外部强迫的结果,存在着相当大的争论。 在自然变率方面,由于大西洋经向翻转环流(AMOC)的加速和减速,SST可能发生变化,其中冷水在北方高纬度下沉,在世界各地的深处循环,并在上升流到赤道以南的表面后返回。 在外部强迫方面,人们对人为气溶胶的影响很感兴趣,气溶胶通过将阳光反射回太空来冷却海面。 在整个世纪中叶,来自北美的气溶胶排放变得更加密集,但从20世纪60年代开始减少,因此上游气溶胶源对大西洋SST的调制是一个可信的理论。 内部变率和外部强迫的支持者之间的争论尚未解决,原因包括观测记录较短(只有两个完整的周期),缺乏AMOC观测,以及缺乏对海洋上空气溶胶浓度的长期测量。该奖项下的研究使用气候模式模拟和观测数据集解决内部变率与外部强迫的问题。 这项工作利用了社区地球系统模型(CESM)进行的大量模拟,其中单个模拟之间的差异纯粹是由于自然气候系统的变化。 特别是,该项目使用20世纪世纪气候的模拟集合,其中一种类型的外部强迫被删除,例如,一个集合不包括温室气体增加,但保留气溶胶,土地覆盖变化,火山爆发等。 除了一个模拟套件外,还有一个套件仅省略了生物质燃烧产生的气溶胶,同时保留了工业气溶胶,另一个套件仅省略了工业气溶胶。 该项目使用这些模拟来研究两种气溶胶类型影响的可能差异。此外,该项目使用一种配置生成新的模拟,其中通过用静止的“板”代替海洋来排除AMOC的影响。 该项目还超越了SST变化是由于内部变化或外部强迫的常见假设,并探讨了AMOC本身受人为气溶胶影响的可能性。由于北大西洋SST变化的广泛影响,这项工作具有社会价值。 特别是,它为预测北大西洋部分气候变化的努力提供了信息,包括一些使用气候模型预测AMOC未来演变的努力。 该项目以各种方式开展社区外展活动,包括参与滨江社区活动,与当地组织(包括Osher终身学习研究所)建立伙伴关系,并通过地球科学教育外展计划(GEOP)与K-12学生接触。 此外,该项目还为两名研究生和两名本科生提供支持和培训。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命,并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估,被认为值得支持。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(8)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Distinct anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol induced marine heatwaves
  • DOI:
    10.1088/2752-5295/ad13ac
  • 发表时间:
    2023-12
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Xianglin Ren;Wei Liu;Robert J. Allen;Se-Yong Song
  • 通讯作者:
    Xianglin Ren;Wei Liu;Robert J. Allen;Se-Yong Song
Ocean heat uptake and interbasin redistribution driven by anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s41561-023-01219-x
  • 发表时间:
    2023-06
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    18.3
  • 作者:
    Shouwei Li;Wei Liu;R. Allen;Jia‐Rui Shi;Laifang Li
  • 通讯作者:
    Shouwei Li;Wei Liu;R. Allen;Jia‐Rui Shi;Laifang Li
Impact of industrial versus biomass burning aerosols on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s41612-024-00602-8
  • 发表时间:
    2024-03
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    9
  • 作者:
    Robert J. Allen;Claire Vega;Eva Yao;Wei Liu
  • 通讯作者:
    Robert J. Allen;Claire Vega;Eva Yao;Wei Liu
Enhanced future vegetation growth with elevated carbon dioxide concentrations could increase fire activity
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s43247-024-01228-7
  • 发表时间:
    2024-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Robert J. Allen;James Gomez;L. W. Horowitz;E. Shevliakova
  • 通讯作者:
    Robert J. Allen;James Gomez;L. W. Horowitz;E. Shevliakova
Are Northern Hemisphere boreal forest fires more sensitive to future aerosol mitigation than to greenhouse gas–driven warming?
  • DOI:
    10.1126/sciadv.adl4007
  • 发表时间:
    2024-03
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    13.6
  • 作者:
    Robert J. Allen;B. Samset;Laura J. Wilcox;Rosie A. Fisher
  • 通讯作者:
    Robert J. Allen;B. Samset;Laura J. Wilcox;Rosie A. Fisher
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Robert Allen其他文献

Pilot of a novel treatment approach by modulation of purinergic signaling
通过调节嘌呤能信号传导的新型治疗方法的试点
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2011
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    I. Wonodi;H. V. Gopinath;Judy Liu;H. Adami;L. Hong;Robert Allen;R. Mcmahon;G. Thaker
  • 通讯作者:
    G. Thaker
Amine-functionalized, multi-arm star polymers: A novel platform for removing glyphosate from aqueous media
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.chemosphere.2016.11.049
  • 发表时间:
    2017-02-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    Lianna Samuel;Ran Wang;Geraud Dubois;Robert Allen;Rudy Wojtecki;Young-Hye La
  • 通讯作者:
    Young-Hye La
Trichodysplasia spinulosa
  • DOI:
    10.1038/ki.2013.268
  • 发表时间:
    2014-03-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    Pankaj Jawa;Koyal Jain;Robert Allen;Gitana Bradauskaite;Shiang-Cheng Kung
  • 通讯作者:
    Shiang-Cheng Kung
Safety and Effectiveness of Antidysrhythmic Drugs for Pharmacologic Cardioversion of Recent-Onset Atrial Fibrillation: a Systematic Review and Bayesian Network Meta-analysis
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s10557-024-07552-6
  • 发表时间:
    2024-02-07
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.100
  • 作者:
    Ian S. deSouza;Pragati Shrestha;Robert Allen;Jessica Koos;Henry Thode
  • 通讯作者:
    Henry Thode
Midterm Outcomes of Laser In Situ Fenestrated Repair (LIFE) of Complex Aortic Arch Pathology: Results From the Multicenter LIFE Registry
复杂主动脉弓病变激光原位开窗修复(LIFE)的中期结果:来自多中心LIFE注册研究的结果
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.jvs.2025.03.046
  • 发表时间:
    2025-06-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.600
  • 作者:
    Brant W. Ullery;Gregory A. Magee;Sukgu M. Han;Jordan R. Stern;Andrew Barleben;Jeromy Brink;Mark Fugate;Robert Allen;Kenneth Tran;Fanny Alie-Cusson;Chase Schlesselman;Jonathan Bath
  • 通讯作者:
    Jonathan Bath

Robert Allen的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Robert Allen', 18)}}的其他基金

I-Corps: Cool Stride : Novel Technology to Improve Amputees Prosthetic Wearing
I-Corps:Cool Stride:改善截肢者假肢佩戴的新技术
  • 批准号:
    1640984
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Observationally-Constrained Estimates of Effective Radiative Forcing from Aerosol Radiation Interactions
合作研究:气溶胶辐射相互作用有效辐射强迫的观测受限估计
  • 批准号:
    1455682
  • 财政年份:
    2015
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Interacting with Threaded Event Scenarios
与线程事件场景交互
  • 批准号:
    0541637
  • 财政年份:
    2005
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Design Aids for Handicapped Students
为残疾学生设计教具
  • 批准号:
    8896302
  • 财政年份:
    1988
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Design Aids for Handicapped Students
为残疾学生设计教具
  • 批准号:
    8807472
  • 财政年份:
    1988
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Research on Changes in Intellectual Development and CriticalThinking Ability
智力发展与批判性思维能力变化研究
  • 批准号:
    8026487
  • 财政年份:
    1981
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Doctoral Dissertation Research in Systematic Biology
系统生物学博士论文研究
  • 批准号:
    7904418
  • 财政年份:
    1979
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Purchase of a Scanning Electron Microscope
购买扫描电子显微镜
  • 批准号:
    7614725
  • 财政年份:
    1976
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Comprehensive Assistance to Undergraduate Science Education Program
本科科学教育综合资助计划
  • 批准号:
    7616173
  • 财政年份:
    1976
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Development of New Working Fluid For Solar Rankineheat Pumps
太阳能朗肯热泵新型工质的开发
  • 批准号:
    7408859
  • 财政年份:
    1974
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant

相似国自然基金

图们江流域农村生活污水处理中Atmosphere-Exposed Biofilm的净化机理及动力学研究
  • 批准号:
    51269032
  • 批准年份:
    2012
  • 资助金额:
    49.0 万元
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Ocean-atmosphere influences on tropical Pacific cloud feedbacks
海洋大气对热带太平洋云反馈的影响
  • 批准号:
    2886174
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Studentship
Understanding the Role of Mesoscale Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions in Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction
了解中尺度大气-海洋相互作用在季节到十年气候预测中的作用
  • 批准号:
    2231237
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Research on the effects of the atmosphere and ocean coupling processes on the MJO using shipboard observations and numerical modeling
利用舰载观测和数值模拟研究大气和海洋耦合过程对MJO的影响
  • 批准号:
    23H01243
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
A direct modeling approach to momentum, heat and mass exchange at the ocean-atmosphere interface at high wind speed
高风速下海洋-大气界面动量、热量和质量交换的直接建模方法
  • 批准号:
    2318816
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Elucidating the importance of anthropogenic iron deposition from the atmosphere to the ocean
阐明从大气到海洋的人为铁沉积的重要性
  • 批准号:
    22KF0165
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
Collaborative Research: Identifying Model Biases in Poleward Heat Transport--Atmosphere-Ocean Partitioning, Trends over the Historical Period and Sub-Seasonal Variability
合作研究:识别向极热传输的模型偏差——大气-海洋划分、历史时期的趋势和次季节变化
  • 批准号:
    2311540
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
The Evolving Role of the Ocean and the Atmosphere in Decadal to Multidecadal Modes of Climate Variability
海洋和大气在十年至多年气候变化模式中的演变作用
  • 批准号:
    2241752
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
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    Standard Grant
Understanding the drivers and climate sensitivity of open ocean methane emissions to the atmosphere
了解公海甲烷排放到大气中的驱动因素和气候敏感性
  • 批准号:
    2241744
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
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    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Identifying Model Biases in Poleward Heat Transport--Atmosphere-Ocean Partitioning, Trends over the Historical Period and Sub-Seasonal Variability
合作研究:识别向极热传输的模型偏差——大气-海洋划分、历史时期的趋势和次季节变化
  • 批准号:
    2311541
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
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Could the middle atmosphere change ocean circulations?
中层大气会改变海洋环流吗?
  • 批准号:
    22K18743
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 78.44万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
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