PIPP Phase I: Center for Pandemic Decision Science - Developing Robust Paradigms for Anticipating and Mitigating Uncertain Pathogen Threats

尽管做了几十年的大流行准备工作，新冠肺炎还是让世界大吃一惊。国家和全球卫生界没有预见到与绘制潜在威胁的生态系统、阐明相互依赖的行为和政治动态以及为决策者提供灵活的科学、战略和培训相关的挑战的范围。该项目设想了一个应对病原体威胁的更有准备的未来，并旨在为大流行决策科学中心奠定基础，该中心将打破将学术、政府和行业机构分开的长期孤岛，这些机构共同但不总是协作地指导大流行的准备和应对工作。在接下来的18个月里，一个由来自10个机构的35名自然科学家、社会科学家、计算机科学家、工程师、医生和公共卫生官员组成的团队将主持一系列跨学科研讨会，并进行试点研究，为解决三个基本研究问题奠定智力和组织基础--我们如何预测潜在病原体威胁的浩瀚宇宙并从源头上检测它们？人们、社区和领导人将如何应对新出现的威胁？我们如何在准备、遏制和反应范围内将科学融入决策？对于这些问题中的每一个，该团队都将确定基础研究、科学家和决策者培训以及预测情报能力开发的近期和长期目标。这些活动将建立以复杂系统建模为基础的新研究范式，整合不同学科的观点和方法，并与决策者广泛接触，以确保科学既相关又实用。该项目将通过研讨会和座谈广泛地吸引研究和公共卫生界的参与，培训不同的学生群体，开发大流行决策科学的本科教学模块，并通过在线平台、媒体和同行评议的出版物传播由此产生的见解和产品。在整个新冠肺炎大流行期间，这个由科学家、工程师、社会科学家和临床医生组成的跨学科团队一直在开发数学模型，为从当地到全球的所有级别的决策者提供态势感知、可操作的预测和时间敏感的政策分析。该团队与政府机构、医疗保健系统和学校密切合作，在病毒、人类行为反应和有效对策的武器库不断变化时提供预测性情报。这项工作阐明了三个相互关联的重大挑战。首先是全球在预测新的病原体威胁方面的想象力不足，尽管几十年来进行了协调一致的准备工作。第二个问题是根本无法预测个人、集体和政府在威胁期间的行为反应。第三个问题是科学与个人、机构和政策制定者的决策之间的长期鸿沟。该项目将启动大流行决策科学中心，通过推动将复杂的系统科学整合到大流行决策中来应对这些重大挑战。作为第一步，该中心将举办一系列包容性、多学科的研讨会和试点研究，以推动对新威胁的出现和检测、人们行为的动态以及为预防、跟踪和减轻不确定情况下的病原体威胁而设计和采用适应性决策范例的创新跨学科研究。这些活动将磨练中心的愿景，确定关键的研究重点，并着手开展多样化的教育和社区建设活动，以促进病原体准备的科学和实践。该奖项由跨部门预测情报大流行预防第一阶段(PIPP)计划支持，该计划由生物科学(BIO)、计算机信息科学和工程(CEISE)、社会、行为和经济科学(SBE)和工程(ENG)共同资助。该项目也是与疾控中心合作资助的，以支持进一步推进联邦传染病建模、预防和应对能力的研究项目。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Despite decades of pandemic preparedness efforts, COVID-19 took the world by surprise. The national and global health community did not foresee the extend of challenges associated with charting ecosystems of potential threats, elucidating interdependent behavioral and political dynamics, and equipping decision makers with nimble science, strategies, and training. This project imagines a better prepared future for responding to pathogen threats and aims to build the basis for a Center for Pandemic Decision Science that will break down the persistent silos separating the academic, government, and industry institutions that have collectively, but not always collaboratively, guided pandemic preparedness and response efforts. Over the next 18 months, a team of 35 natural scientists, social scientists, computer scientists, engineers, physicians, and public health officials from 10 institutions will host a series of interdisciplinary workshops and undertake pilot studies that will lay the intellectual and organizational groundwork for tackling three fundamental research questions - How can we anticipate the vast universe of potential pathogen threats and detect them at their source? How will people, communities, and leaders behave and respond to emerging threats? How can we integrate science into decision making across the preparedness, containment, and response spectrum? For each of these questions, the team will identify immediate and long-term goals for basic research, training of scientists and decision makers, and development of predictive intelligence capabilities. These activities will establish a new research paradigm that is grounded in complex systems modeling, integrate perspectives and methods across diverse disciplines, and engage extensively with decision makers to ensure that the science is both relevant and practical. The project will broadly engage the research and public health communities through workshops and colloquia, train a diverse group of students, develop an undergraduate teaching module in pandemic decision science, and disseminate resulting insights and products through online platforms, media, and peer-reviewed publications. Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, this interdisciplinary team of scientists, engineers, social scientists, and clinicians has been developing mathematical models to provide situational awareness, actionable forecasts, and time-sensitive policy analyses for decision makers on all scales, from local to global. The team has partnered closely with government agencies, healthcare systems, and schools to provide predictive intelligence as the virus, human behavioral responses, and the arsenal of effective countermeasures continually shifted. This work has elucidated three interlinked grand challenges. The first is the global failure of imagination in anticipating novel pathogen threats, despite decades of concerted preparedness efforts. The second is the fundamental inability to anticipate individual, collective, and governmental behavioral responses during the threats. The third is the persistent gap between science and the decisions made by individuals, agencies, and policymakers. This project will launch a Center for Pandemic Decision Science that tackles these grand challenges by advancing the integration of complex systems science into pandemic decision making. As a first step, the Center will conduct a series of inclusive, multidisciplinary workshops and pilot studies that will spur innovative interdisciplinary research into the emergence and detection of novel threats, the dynamics of people’s behavior, and the design and adoption of adaptive decision paradigms for preventing, tracking and mitigating pathogen threats under uncertainty. These activities will hone the Center’s vision, identify key research priorities, and embark on a diverse portfolio of educational and community building activities to advance the science and practice of pathogen preparedness. This award is supported by the cross-directorate Predictive Intelligence for Pandemic Prevention Phase I (PIPP) program, which is jointly funded by the Directorates for Biological Sciences (BIO), Computer Information Science and Engineering (CISE), Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences (SBE) and Engineering (ENG). This project was also funded in collaboration with the CDC to support research projects to further advance federal infectious disease modeling, prevention and response capabilities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.