Adaptive capacities to respond to environmental change in Copper butterflies

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Current anthropogenic climate change is considered one of the largest challenges for conserving biodiversity. There is rich evidence that climate change is already substantially affecting biological systems, and in particular range shifts and plastic responses have been widely documented. However, our understanding of the specific factors or traits determining success or failure in the light of climate change is extremely limited, hampering our abilities to more accurately predict the consequences of climate change on extant biodiversity. Against this background I will here use a comparative approach, based on different species of Copper butterflies (Lycaena spp.), to explore plastic capacities and evolutionary potential in response to temperature variation. Specifically, I will investigate (1) stress tolerance in early developmental stages, (2) the effects of simulated climate change on development, survival and other components of fitness, (3) plastic capacities to respond to environmental stress in the adult stage, and (4) allelic variation at loci that are likely under thermal selection. All concomitant experiments will include species from the same genus, but nevertheless differing strikingly in ecological attributes and thus reflecting different vulnerabilities to climate change, ranging from currently declining high risk to currently expanding low risk species. Emphasis will be placed on plastic capacities, as phenotypic plasticity can be extremely fast and efficient in buffering detrimental effects of short-term environmental variation, and is therefore expected to be a major determinant of a species ability to deal with climate change. The combination of using (1) a comparative approach with species differing in their vulnerability to climate change and being of conservation concern, (2) powerful experimental designs with ecologically realistic settings and stressors, and using (3) an array of methods ranging from experimental through to molecular ecology will provide novel insights into the mechanisms underlying failure or success in times of changing climates, comprising a hitherto largely neglected area of research. The relevance of this project extends well beyond biodiversity research, as the same mechanisms will be important for species used for agricultural purposes.