Adaptive capacities to respond to environmental change in Copper butterflies

目前的人为气候变化被认为是保护生物多样性的最大挑战之一。有大量证据表明，气候变化已经在很大程度上影响着生物系统，特别是射程变化和塑料反应已经得到了广泛的记录。然而，根据气候变化，我们对决定成败的具体因素或特征的了解极其有限，这阻碍了我们更准确地预测气候变化对现有生物多样性的影响的能力。在此背景下，我将在这里使用基于不同种类的铜蝴蝶(Lycaena spp.)的比较方法来探索塑料能力和进化潜力对温度变化的响应。具体地说，我将研究(1)早期发育阶段的压力耐受性，(2)模拟气候变化对发育、生存和其他健康成分的影响，(3)成年期对环境压力的可塑性反应能力，以及(4)可能在热选择下的基因座上的等位基因变异。所有伴随的实验将包括来自同一属的物种，但在生态属性上却截然不同，从而反映出对气候变化的不同脆弱性，从目前正在下降的高风险物种到目前正在扩大的低风险物种。将把重点放在塑料能力上，因为表型可塑性在缓冲短期环境变化的不利影响方面可以极其迅速和有效，因此预计将成为物种应对气候变化能力的主要决定因素。结合使用(1)对易受气候变化影响和受保护关注的不同物种进行比较的方法，(2)采用具有生态现实背景和压力源的强有力的实验设计，以及(3)使用从实验到分子生态学的一系列方法，将为气候变化时代失败或成功的机制提供新的见解，这是一个迄今基本上被忽视的研究领域。该项目的意义远远超出了生物多样性研究的范围，因为同样的机制对用于农业目的的物种也将是重要的。

Current anthropogenic climate change is considered one of the largest challenges for conserving biodiversity. There is rich evidence that climate change is already substantially affecting biological systems, and in particular range shifts and plastic responses have been widely documented. However, our understanding of the specific factors or traits determining success or failure in the light of climate change is extremely limited, hampering our abilities to more accurately predict the consequences of climate change on extant biodiversity. Against this background I will here use a comparative approach, based on different species of Copper butterflies (Lycaena spp.), to explore plastic capacities and evolutionary potential in response to temperature variation. Specifically, I will investigate (1) stress tolerance in early developmental stages, (2) the effects of simulated climate change on development, survival and other components of fitness, (3) plastic capacities to respond to environmental stress in the adult stage, and (4) allelic variation at loci that are likely under thermal selection. All concomitant experiments will include species from the same genus, but nevertheless differing strikingly in ecological attributes and thus reflecting different vulnerabilities to climate change, ranging from currently declining high risk to currently expanding low risk species. Emphasis will be placed on plastic capacities, as phenotypic plasticity can be extremely fast and efficient in buffering detrimental effects of short-term environmental variation, and is therefore expected to be a major determinant of a species ability to deal with climate change. The combination of using (1) a comparative approach with species differing in their vulnerability to climate change and being of conservation concern, (2) powerful experimental designs with ecologically realistic settings and stressors, and using (3) an array of methods ranging from experimental through to molecular ecology will provide novel insights into the mechanisms underlying failure or success in times of changing climates, comprising a hitherto largely neglected area of research. The relevance of this project extends well beyond biodiversity research, as the same mechanisms will be important for species used for agricultural purposes.