OCE-PRF: Uncovering the drivers of marine metapopulation synchrony and resilience under climate change

海洋生态系统是美国文化和经济的重要组成部分。气候变化正在给海洋生态系统带来更多大规模的环境冲击，如热浪和养分供应中断。该项目将确定大规模环境冲击可能导致美国东西海岸具有重要生态意义和商业价值的海洋物种大规模减少的条件。具体地说，该项目将把新出现的量化方法与大规模渔业和环境监测数据结合起来，以确定(1)哪些生物和环境特征防止了目前物种丰度的大规模下降，以及(2)这种恢复力是否将在未来的气候制度下保持。这项研究还将开发现有的数据驱动的数学方法，以了解和预测大型生态系统中的同步变化。在这一过程中，PI项目将培训未被充分代表的少数群体和第一代学生，让他们学习数据科学和应用于海洋数据的尖端统计分析。极端环境事件的频率和空间尺度的增加可能会导致种群丰度在不同地点一致波动(同步)。同步性削弱了投资组合和救援效应，放大了大规模崩盘的风险，从而削弱了人口的韧性。理论假设了一系列种群特征可以阻止集合种群的同步性(例如，特定位置的生态动态，种群对环境的非线性反应)，随着气候变化加剧环境变化，这些特征中只有一部分继续发挥作用。然而，方法上的限制阻碍了目前对该领域中这些同步调节特征进行量化的努力。将新的非参数时间延迟嵌入方法应用于跨越一系列物种和两个生态系统的时空数据，该项目将开发一种新的方法，以确定(1)目前大型海洋生态系统中哪些特征阻碍了同步性，以及(2)这种弹性是否会在预期的气候变化下持续。更广泛地说，这里开创的方法旨在帮助将实证研究从描述人口和环境时间序列的同步性转向理解支撑观察到的同步性模式的机制。这将有助于理解和预测生态系统及其提供的众多服务的大规模变化。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Ocean ecosystems form a major component of the US culture and economy. Climate change is bringing more large-scale environmental shocks to ocean ecosystems, such as heat waves and disruptions in nutrient supply. This project will determine the conditions under which large-scale environmental shocks could propagate into large-scale declines of ecologically important and commercially valuable marine species on the US East and West coasts. Specifically, the project will combine emerging quantitative methods with large-scale fisheries and environmental monitoring data to identify (1) which biological and environmental features prevent large-scale declines in species abundance at present, and (2) whether this resilience will remain under future climate regimes. This research will also develop existing data-driven mathematical approaches to understanding and forecasting synchronous changes in large ecosystems. In the process, the project PI will train and involve under-represented minority and first-generation students in data science and cutting-edge statistical analyses applied to ocean data. Increasing frequency and spatial scales of extreme environmental events can cause population abundances to fluctuate in unison across locations (synchrony). Synchrony erodes population resilience by weakening portfolio and rescue effects and amplifying the risk of a large-scale collapse. Theory posits an array of population features that can prevent synchrony in metapopulations (e.g., location-specific ecological dynamics, nonlinear population response to environment), only some of which continue to operate as climate change intensifies environmental variation. Methodological constraints, however, hinder current efforts to quantify these synchrony-moderating features in the field. Applying new nonparametric time-delay embedding methods to spatiotemporal data spanning an array of species and two ecosystems, this project will develop a new approach that identifies (1) which features hold back synchrony in large marine ecosystems at present and (2) whether this resilience will continue under expected climatic changes. More generally, the approach pioneered here aims to help shift empirical research from describing synchrony in population and environment time series towards understanding mechanisms underpinning observed synchrony patterns. This would help understand and anticipate large-scale changes in ecosystems and the numerous services they provide.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.