The Micro and Macro Effects of Supply-Chain Disruptions

现代经济依赖复杂的供应链进行生产。这些更复杂的供应链降低了生产成本，提高了世界各地的生活水平。然而，这些复杂的全球供应链更容易受到破坏：极端天气、贸易分歧、网络攻击，以及最引人注目的全球经济关闭和重新开放，以应对新冠肺炎大流行。该项目将调查供应中断对国内生产总值、就业和价格等总体结果的影响。大规模供应中断会导致经济衰退吗？通货膨胀？该项目开发的模型将衡量供应中断对美国经济表现的贡献。这项拟议研究的第二个目标是对企业应对供应中断风险的方式进行建模。企业如何利用库存和运输方式来防范供应中断？本项目开发的框架可用于评估政府政策的有效性，如基础设施投资或风险缓解措施。标准的动态随机一般均衡模型不适合研究供应中断，因为它们通常从供应链中抽象出来。这项拟议的研究建立在企业层面的模型上，在该模型中，企业面临不确定的需求和不确定的投入交付。订购商品需要支付固定的成本和送货时间，因此公司持有库存以缓冲供需冲击。这种企业模型被嵌入到一个两国的一般均衡模型中，该模型考虑了生产率和运输延误的总体冲击。公司很少下订单，而且收到投入所需时间的普遍冲击可能会产生非线性反应。该模型将被参数化，以便它符合汇总数据的关键特征，从而能够分解在经济复苏后等事件期间每一次冲击的重要性。这一裁决反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Modern economies rely on complex supply chains for production. These more-complex supply chains lower the cost of production, increasing the standard of living across the world. These complex, global supply chains, however, are more vulnerable to disruption: extreme weather, trade disagreements, cyber attacks, and, most noticeably, the closing and reopening of the global economy in response to the COVID pandemic. This project will investigate the impact of supply disruptions on aggregate outcomes such as gross domestic product, employment, and prices. Can large supply disruptions cause recessions? Inflation? The models developed in the project will measure the contribution of supply disruptions to the performance of the U.S. economy. A second goal of the proposed research is to model the ways in which firms respond to the risk of supply disruption. How do firms use inventories and transportation modalities to guard against supply disruptions? The framework developed in this project can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of government policies such as infrastructure investment or risk mitigation measures.Standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models are not well-suited to study supply disruptions because they typically abstract from supply chains. The proposed research builds on firm-level models in which firms face uncertain demand and uncertain delivery of inputs. Ordering goods requires paying a fixed cost and time to deliver, so firms hold inventories to buffer against supply and demand shocks. This model of a firm is embedded into a two country, general equilibrium model with aggregate shocks to productivity and shipping delays. Firms infrequently place orders and a common shock to the time it takes to receive inputs can generate non-linear responses. The model will be parameterized so that it fits key features of the aggregate data allowing a decomposition of the importance of each shock during episodes such as the post-covid reopening of the economy.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.