OPP-PRF: The predictive capacity of ocean heat gain and autumn freeze up dates on seasonal sea ice extent from three reanalyses and the CESM2 Large Ensemble

该项目的重点是提高北极海冰范围的可预测性。这项研究使用了大量模拟的免费数据，将使用海洋热量模式来评估秋季海冰结冰的时间与季节性可预测性之间的关系。研究人员预计，该项目将通过应用统计数据来评估哪些环境变量对海冰损失最重要，从而大大有助于了解环境对北冰洋海冰变化的影响。在过去的40年里，海冰在所有月份都在减少，留下了更薄、更小的海冰，由于气候变暖，这种变化预计将继续下去。这些变化不仅产生了气候影响，也产生了经济影响，这就是为什么在季节性范围内准确预测海冰范围是重要的。随着北极失去海冰覆盖，它变得更容易航运和资源开采，但对土著社区和依赖冰的受威胁物种来说也不太可靠。海冰可能会增长到数米厚，导致北极地区无法通行，除非该实体能够使用破冰船。更好地了解导致海冰变化的因素将改进模型，并向公众提供信息，以便他们能够更有效地进行规划。该项目旨在吸引少数群体参与，并鼓励许多教育水平的人更好地科学了解北极气候。为此，将为高中生和中学生创建一个名为数据谜题(https://datapuzzles.org/))的短期课程，并聘请一名本科生实习生。虽然对影响北极海冰损失的基本物理过程有很好的认识，但关于北冰洋季节性热吸收和释放的大小、可变性和趋势的定量信息很少。该项目将新颖地利用来自三个追溯模型的海洋热增量数据，并结合最新可用的共同体地球系统模型第2版大集合(CESM2-LE)的输出。利用组合的被动微波海冰记录的海冰浓度(SIC)数据，将计算每个网格单元的开放水域总天数，以评估开放水域天数和秋季结冰日期如何变化和变化。最后，我们将使用季节自回归综合移动平均模型(SARIMA)来预测一个月、两个月和三个月提前期的季节性SIC。在多变量模型中，总海洋热增量、平均云量、总柱水和开放水域天数将被用作预测因子。研究人员将使用统计模型来估计北极各种气候特征对海冰范围和未来季节性预测的影响。该项目将极大地促进对北极气候的理解和对模型改进的帮助。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project focuses on improving sea ice extent predictability in the Arctic. Using freely available data from a number of simulations, this research will use ocean heat patterns to assess how the timing of autumn sea ice freeze up relates to seasonal predictability. The researcher expects this project to contribute significantly to the understanding of environmental influences on sea ice change across the Arctic Ocean, by applying statistics to evaluate which environmental variables are the most significant for sea ice loss. Over the last 40 years, sea ice has declined in all months, leaving thinner and smaller sea ice floes, and such changes are expected to continue due to climate warming. These changes produce not only climate impacts, but also economic impacts, which is why accurately forecasting sea ice extent on seasonal scales is important. As the Arctic loses sea ice cover, it becomes more accessible to shipping and resource extraction but also less reliable for Indigenous communities and threatened species that depend on the ice. Sea ice can grow to be multiple meters thick causing regions of the Arctic to be impassible, unless the entity has access to an icebreaker ship. Better knowing the factors contributing to sea ice change will improve models and inform the public so they can plan more efficiently. This project aims to engage minority groups and encourage the development of greater scientific understanding of the Arctic climate for people at many educational levels. This will be done by creating a short course for high school and middle school students called a Data Puzzle (https://datapuzzles.org/) and employing an undergraduate intern. While basic physical processes impacting sea ice loss in the Arctic are well recognized, little quantitative information exists on the magnitudes, variability, and trends in seasonal Arctic Ocean heat uptake and release. This project will make novel use of ocean heat gain data from three retrospective models in conjunction with output from the newly available Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE). Using sea ice concentration (SIC) data from the combined Passive Microwave sea ice record, the total days with open water at each grid cell will be calculated to assess how open water days and the date of autumn freeze up have varied and changed. Lastly, a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) will be used to predict seasonal SIC at lead times of one, two and three months. Total ocean heat gain, average cloud cover, total column water, and number of open water days will be used as predictors in the multivariate model. The researcher will use statistical models to estimate the influence of various Arctic climate characteristics on sea ice extent and future seasonal predictions. This project will significantly contribute to the understanding of the Arctic climate and aid in model improvement.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.