EAGER: Towards an understanding of responses to climate change in drylands of the Southwest United States and northern Mexico: a climate change and invasion vulnerability analysis.

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Many amphibians (mostly frogs and salamanders) are facing extinction for a variety of reasons. Because they require a wet or moist environment for at least part of their lives, hotter and drier conditions are a big threat. Such conditions are becoming more common and are especially problematic for amphibians living in areas that had little water to start with. A second threat are non-native species moving into habitats that were once the stronghold of native amphibians. The non-native species can eat the eggs and young of native species or simply outcompete them for resources. This project will examine how a changing climate and non-native species combine to threaten native species of amphibians in the drylands of the southwestern United States. Results will be critical for management of amphibian populations, especially in areas where they were already rare. Researchers will identify important areas for conservation and areas that are most likely to be invaded by non-native species.This research will combine geospatial techniques, such as species distribution modeling, and a trait-based ranking methodology to: (1) assess amphibian species’ relative vulnerability to current and projected climate change, (2) identify areas with high vulnerability to invasion by non-native species, and (3) provide an overall assessment of how climate change and non-native species will affect the suitability of habitat for native amphibians. This proposal will open an exciting new realm of inquiry for ecology, biogeography, and conservation biology. Specifically, it will be the first to integrate a climate change susceptibility analysis and assessment of vulnerability to invasions, and to investigate the effect of climate change on the distribution of areas for conservation of amphibians. This research will create a framework that will significantly improve the current state of knowledge on amphibian distributions, while also providing comprehensive information and analyses for decision-makers to conserve and protect endangered and threatened amphibian species and their habitats.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.