Collaborative Research: AMPS: Rare Events in Power Systems: Novel Mathematics, Statistics and Algorithms.

该项目的目标是建立一个全面的AI/ML理论和算法框架，用于检测、跟踪、预测和缓解电力系统中的极端和罕见但后果严重的事件。AI/ML的绝大多数传统应用程序都涉及学习分布的“中间”。由于深度学习(DL)的突破，在工业界和学术界，应用程序大多已成为“内插”的常规练习。基于大量的“典型”信息，一般的数据挖掘任务侧重于设计算法，以提取和构建代表海量科学数据最常见特征的特征。这种传统的DL情况与极端事件的DL之间的区别在于，在后一种情况下，任务是一种外推。此外，海量的科学数据在正常情况下是有益的，但却成为外推的诅咒，这种外推侧重于提取罕见但重要的事件--黑天鹅--它们就像大海捞针一样，出了名的难以检测和跟踪，然后随着事件的发展做出可靠的预测和可能的缓解。换句话说，基于非常有限的信息，研究目标是提取规律性模式，这些模式可以在长时间和空间尺度上持续存在，然后导致潜在的罕见极端。PI将研究与2020年夏天的酷热或2021年春季德克萨斯州的酷寒有关的模型；电力系统停电，如2004年东海岸停电。这些方法将具有更广泛的适用性，例如，如果预测和检测其他物理和网络中的故障。PI将研究三个领域的具体目标：(A)电力系统的物理-知情统计建模，(B)电力系统极值推理的计算方法，以及(C)模型中误差的学习和量化。他们将应用在新框架内开发的方法，包括及早发现电力系统中罕见但毁灭性的连锁故障。该方法的数学/理论核心将在于将特定于电力系统的约束整合到一般极值理论(EVT)中。这种集成将通过综合EVT和来自物理信息机器学习、概率图形模型和最优传输理论的补充方法来实现。在计算方面，PI将利用EVT为大规模随机系统开发有效的模型校准、推理和学习算法，这些算法通过具有随机输入的适当参数化的非线性实数或复值代数和微分方程组来描述。此外，他们在理论和计算方面的共同努力将在更广泛的背景下有用，将罕见事件控制和预防方法扩展到其他具有国家重要性的系统和应用程序。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The project goal is to build a comprehensive theoretical and algorithmic framework of AI/ML for detection, tracking, forecasting and mitigation of extreme and rare but consequential events in power systems. The overwhelming majority of conventional applications of AI/ML involve learning the `middle' of the distribution. Applications have become mostly routine exercises in `interpolation' in both industry and academia, thanks to the Deep Learning (DL) breakthrough. Based on copious amounts of `typical' information, a generic DL task focuses on designing algorithms which extract and build features which represent the most common characteristics of the massive scientific data. The difference between this conventional DL situation and DL for extreme events is that, in the latter setting, the task is one of extrapolation. Moreover, massive scientific data, beneficial in normal regimes, becomes a curse for extrapolation which focuses on extracting rare but significant events -- the black swans -- which are, like a needle in a haystack, notoriously difficult to detect and track, and then use to make reliable forecasts and possible mitigations as events develop. In other words, based on very limited information, the research objective is to extract regularity patterns, which can persist over long spatial and temporal scales, that then lead to potential rare extremes. The PI will study models that relate to such as the extreme heat of the summer of 2020 or the extreme cold in Texas in the spring of 2021; power system blackouts, like the 2004 East Coast blackout. The methods will have even broader applicability, for example, if prediction and detection of failures in other physical and cyber networks. PI will investigate specific objectives in three areas: (A) Physics-Informed Statistical Modeling for power systems, (B) Computational Methods of Inference for Extremes in power systems, and (C) Learning and Quantification of Errors in the Models. They will apply the methodology developed within the novel framework to including early detection of rare but devastating cascading failures in power systems. The mathematical/theoretical core of the methodology will consist in integration of power-system-specific constraints into the general Extreme Value Theory (EVT). This integration will be achieved via synthesis of EVT with the complementary approaches from the Physics Informed Machine Learning, Probabilistic Graphical Models and Optimal Transport theory. On the computational side, PI will utilize EVT to develop efficient model calibration, inference and learning algorithms for large-scale stochastic systems, described via properly parameterized non-linear real or complex-valued algebraic and differential equations with random stochastic input. Moreover, their coupled theoretical and computational efforts will be useful in a broader context for extending the rare event control and prevention methodology to other systems and applications of national importance.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.