Collaborative Research: Evolutionary responses to environmental change at range limits: adaptation, migration and population size at the core, margin and trailing edge

合作研究：对范围限制内环境变化的进化反应：核心、边缘和后缘的适应、迁移和人口规模

• 批准号: 1655344
• 负责人: Matthew Fitzpatrick
• 金额: $ 50.96万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland Center for Environmental Sciences
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-08-01 至 2022-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1655344&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Evolutionary; responses; environmental

Biologists lack a general understanding of the interaction between changes in climate and variation in abundance, connectivity, and local adaptation from the center to the edge of species' ranges. By the end of the 21st century, temperatures are predicted to rise 3-5 degrees C across much of temperate and boreal North America, causing populations of many species to face climate conditions beyond their current tolerances. Mathematical models predict that evolution in response to environmental change can depend critically on how close populations are located to the edge of their range, yet little is known empirically about how responses to this environmental change vary spatially across a species' distribution, especially near range limits. This research uses an ecologically and economically important forest tree in eastern North America, red spruce (Picea rubens), to study the effects of range limits on responses to environmental change. The project addresses the overarching question: how do shifting range limits driven by environmental change affect adaptation, migration, and population size across a species' distribution? Addressing this problem advances our scientific understanding of adaptation at range limits and the processes that constrain species distributions. In addition, this work addresses a pressing applied problem of how environmental change will affect the productivity of natural and human-managed ecosystems located in marginal environments. Additional broader impacts include assessing the conservation status of southern populations of a foundation tree species in eastern coniferous forests at risk of local extinction. The results will be shared with diverse stakeholders working on forest conservation and management, and will be integrated with assessments of local population vulnerability and the design of informed mitigation efforts. Local citizens in rural communities will be engaged through public science outreach. This award will also serve to train two postdoctoral researchers, one graduate student, and numerous undergraduate researchers in evolutionary ecology, plant physiology, and environmental change science.The experimental approach of the research will leverage species distribution modeling to track historical range movements in red spruce over the last 11,000 years, and predict proximity to the shifting range limit for different locales. These predictions will then be related to the changing size, connectivity, and ecophysiology of populations experiencing environmental change by sampling fossil spruce pollen preserved in sediment and using recent advances at the interface of paleoecology and population genetics to measure plant water use efficiency, effective population size, and connectivity through time. The research will also couple the latest techniques in ecological genomics with novel spatial modeling approaches to predict how local adaptation will vary with proximity to the range limit under scenarios of projected climate warming in North America.

生物学家缺乏对气候变化与物种分布范围中心到边缘的丰度、连通性和局部适应性变化之间的相互作用的一般理解。到世纪末，预计北美大部分温带和北部地区的气温将上升3-5摄氏度，导致许多物种的种群面临超出其目前承受能力的气候条件。数学模型预测，进化对环境变化的反应可能严重依赖于种群距离其分布范围的边缘有多近，但对这种环境变化的反应如何在物种分布的空间上变化，特别是在接近分布范围的限制方面，经验上知之甚少。本研究利用北美东部一种具有重要生态和经济价值的森林树种红云杉（Picea rubens），研究了范围限制对环境变化响应的影响。该项目解决了一个首要问题：由环境变化驱动的变化范围限制如何影响物种分布的适应，迁移和人口规模？解决这一问题，推进了我们对适应范围限制和限制物种分布的过程的科学理解。此外，这项工作解决了一个紧迫的应用问题，环境变化将如何影响自然和人类管理的生态系统位于边缘环境的生产力。其他更广泛的影响包括评估东部针叶林中一个基础树种的南部种群的保护状况，这些树种有可能在当地灭绝。评估结果将与从事森林养护和管理工作的不同利益攸关方分享，并将与当地人口脆弱性评估和知情减灾努力的设计相结合。农村社区的当地公民将通过公共科学外联活动参与进来。该奖项还将用于培养两名博士后研究人员，一名研究生，以及众多进化生态学，植物生理学和环境变化科学的本科研究人员。该研究的实验方法将利用物种分布模型来跟踪过去11，000年来红云杉的历史范围移动，并预测不同地区的移动范围限制。这些预测将涉及到不断变化的规模，连通性和生态生理学的人口经历环境变化的采样化石云杉花粉保存在沉积物中，并利用最新进展的古生态学和人口遗传学的接口，以衡量植物水分利用效率，有效的人口规模，并通过时间的连接。该研究还将把生态基因组学的最新技术与新的空间建模方法结合起来，预测在北美预计气候变暖的情况下，当地的适应性将如何随着接近范围限制而变化。

项目成果

A working guide to harnessing generalized dissimilarity modelling for biodiversity analysis and conservation assessment

• DOI: 10.1111/geb.13459
• 发表时间: 2022-02
• 期刊: Global Ecology and Biogeography
• 影响因子: 6.4
• 作者: K. Mokany;C. Ware;Skipton N. C. Woolley;S. Ferrier;M. Fitzpatrick

Genotypic variation and plasticity in climate-adaptive traits after range expansion and fragmentation of red spruce ( Picea rubens Sarg.)

红云杉（Picea rubens Sarg.）范围扩大和破碎后气候适应性状的基因型变异和可塑性

• DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0008
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
• 作者: Prakash, Anoob;DeYoung, Sonia;Lachmuth, Susanne;Adams, Jacquelyne L.;Johnsen, Kurt;Butnor, John R.;Nelson, David M.;Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.;Keller, Stephen R.
• 通讯作者: Keller, Stephen R.

Simulation Tests of Methods in Evolution, Ecology, and Systematics: Pitfalls, Progress, and Principles

进化论、生态学和系统学方法的模拟测试：陷阱、进展和原则

• DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-102320-093722
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: and Systematics
• 作者: Lotterhos, Katie E.;Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.;Blackmon, Heath
• 通讯作者: Blackmon, Heath

The ODMAP protocol: a new tool for standardized reporting that could revolutionize species distribution modeling

ODMAP 协议：标准化报告的新工具，可以彻底改变物种分布模型

• DOI: 10.1111/ecog.05700
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Ecography
• 影响因子: 5.9
• 作者: Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.;Lachmuth, Susanne;Haydt, Natalie T.
• 通讯作者: Haydt, Natalie T.