Rossby Wave Breaking Archetypal Patterns, Processes and Projected Changes from the 20th (twentieth) to the 21st (twenty-first) Century

罗斯比浪潮打破了 20 世纪到 21 世纪的原型模式、过程和预计变化

• 批准号: 2148567
• 负责人: Melissa Gervais
• 金额: $ 48.61万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-03-01 至 2025-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2148567&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Rossby; Wave; Breaking; Archetypal; Patterns

The weather that typically occurs in the middle latitudes is driven in part by the jet stream - a corridor of strong winds found 8-13 km above ground - and atmospheric undulations associated with Rossby waves that propagate with it. These waves typically have a pattern that resembles a swell in the ocean, in that they are relatively broad and rolling. However, in certain circumstances, they can break, resembling closely the appearance of a wave breaking on a shoreline. When Rossby waves break in the atmosphere, they are frequently associated with high-impact weather phenomena like extended heat and cold waves, extreme precipitation, and atmospheric blocking that can significantly alter the path of the jet stream. These Rossby wave breaks can take on a variety of different shapes and sizes (i.e., flavors) which may determine where and how they modulate mid-latitude extreme weather. To date, a comprehensive analysis of the different wave breaking flavors has yet to be undertaken. The goal of this research is to understand the common flavors of Rossby wave breaking in the Northern Hemisphere in the present and future climate using machine learning. The investigators will assess the flavors of Rossby wave breaking in past observations and seek to identify how well climate models can represent such patterns and their associated impacts on the jet stream and weather. The proposed work will also explore how these Rossby wave break flavors, frequencies, and impacts may change over the 21st Century. Given the close linkage between Rossby wave breaking, the jet stream, and high-impact weather, a better understanding of these events in the present and future is societally important. The exploration of how Rossby wave break patterns change over the next century should shed light on a critical area of interest to both the science community and the broader public. As part of proposed activities, the investigators will mentor a graduate student as well as two undergraduate students. One undergraduate researcher will help to develop a real-time Rossby wave break tracking tool for operational forecasters, while the second will explore the impacts of changes in Rossby wave breaking over the climate-sensitive Mediterranean region. This research will thus serve to improve our fundamental understanding of these high impact events, train the next generation of scientists in the intersectional study of weather and climate, and provide information that is of interest to members of the research community, operational forecasters, and policy/adaptation decision makers.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

通常发生在中纬度地区的天气在一定程度上是由急流和与之传播的罗斯比波相关的大气波动驱动的。急流是在地面上方8-13公里处发现的一条强风走廊。这些海浪通常有一种类似于海洋中的巨浪的模式，因为它们相对较宽和起伏。然而，在某些情况下，它们可能会破裂，就像海浪在海岸线上破裂一样。当罗斯比波在大气中破裂时，它们经常与高影响天气现象有关，如持续的热浪和冷浪、极端降水和大气阻塞，这些都可能显著改变急流的路径。这些Rossby波突变可以呈现各种不同的形状和大小(即，味道)，这可能决定它们在哪里以及如何调制中纬度极端天气。到目前为止，还没有对不同的破浪口味进行全面的分析。这项研究的目的是利用机器学习来了解北半球Rossby波破裂在现在和未来气候中的常见特征。研究人员将评估过去观测到的罗斯比波破裂的特征，并试图确定气候模型能否很好地代表这种模式及其对急流和天气的相关影响。这项拟议的工作还将探索这些罗斯比波浪破碎的味道、频率和影响在21世纪可能会发生什么变化。鉴于Rossby波破裂、急流和高影响天气之间的密切联系，更好地了解现在和未来的这些事件具有重要的社会意义。对Rossby波浪破碎模式在下个世纪如何变化的探索应该会揭示科学界和更广泛的公众感兴趣的一个关键领域。作为拟议活动的一部分，调查人员将指导一名研究生和两名本科生。一名本科生研究人员将帮助为业务预报员开发实时Rossby海浪破碎跟踪工具，而第二名研究人员将探索Rossby海浪破碎变化对气候敏感的地中海地区的影响。因此，这项研究将有助于提高我们对这些高影响事件的基本理解，培训下一代天气和气候交叉研究方面的科学家，并提供研究界成员、业务预报员和政策/适应决策者感兴趣的信息。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。