Postdoctoral Fellowship: EAR-PF: Using paleogeography and the fossil record to characterize the influence of scale on species range trajectories

一个物种的分布范围，或该物种在地理空间中的位置，可以提供有关其在生态系统和景观中的作用的信息。物种的分布范围受到许多因素的影响，包括气候变化、生态系统和群落的变化以及人为影响。然而，物种在地质时间尺度（例如，数百万年）上的动态变化尚未完全了解。此外，过去的构造变动和气候变化对物种范围的影响使物种范围随时间的研究变得复杂。该项目在牛津大学进行，由Erin Saupe博士提供建议，探讨了许多不同地理范围和物种类型的物种范围大小的长期变化。它旨在量化物种范围如何在多个时间尺度上波动，评估构造和气候如何影响这些波动，并研究物种之间的相关性和遗传性如何驱动动态。该项目将提供新的途径，探究生物多样性的长期维持情况，并将有助于在地球历史和生命历史之间建立另一种联系。在这个项目中，研究人员将为几个项目做出贡献，这些项目旨在增加学术界的多样性，并向学生介绍地质学和古生物学科学研究的整个过程。这些计划包括纳菲尔德研究安置计划，一个为期一个月的计划，学生开发和回答自己的研究问题，以及UNIQ计划，赞助来自不同和服务不足社区的高中生参加他们感兴趣的领域的短期课程。通过这些举措，该项目旨在促进关于地球科学在我们不断变化的世界中至关重要的讨论，并激励一批新的专门的地球科学家。随着我们进入人类世，前所未有的气候和景观变化正在导致全球性的灭绝和许多物种的分布范围的重组（Barnosky et al. 2011）。了解物种范围如何在地质时期发生变化，可以深入了解这些当前和预测的未来变化。此外，对物种范围从起源到灭绝的变化动态进行分类，可以提高保护组织和政府识别和保护可能面临范围损失和灭绝风险的物种的能力。然而，随着时间的推移，物种范围的研究由于空间、分类和时间尺度的外在影响而变得复杂（肯普et al. 2015）。使用新的方法在古地形重建与古生物学数据库和新的进化假说的进步，本研究摆脱这些混淆的影响，并评估多个方面的范围动态的化石记录。该项目有三个目标：1）量化物种的地理范围如何在多个时间尺度上波动，2）检查构造，地理和气候因素在构建范围动态中的贡献，3）评估这些范围大小动态的遗传性和分类尺度对范围大小波动的影响。该项目将使用地理参考古生物学数据库，包括Triton，PBDB，Neotoma和NOW，以描述物种范围大小随时间的变化，并确定物种进化历史中的范围大小轨迹是否在分类群和时间尺度上一致。接下来，将使用时间自回归模型和随机微分方程，将范围大小的波动与气候和构造变化的周期相关联。最后，应用从已发表的来源，如Phylacine，相关性和遗传性的影响范围大小的轨迹将evaluated.This奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准的评估支持。

The range of a species, or where the species lives in geographic space, can provide information about its role within an ecosystem and across landscapes. Species ranges are influenced by many factors, including changes in climate, shifts in ecosystems and communities, and anthropogenic influences. However, the dynamics of species ranges on geological timescales (for example, across millions of years) has not yet been fully understood. Furthermore, the study of species ranges through time is complicated by the influence of past tectonic shifts and climate change on species ranges. This project, conducted at the University of Oxford and advised by Dr. Erin Saupe, explores long-term changes in species range sizes across many different geographic extents, and types of species. It aims to quantify how species ranges fluctuate over multiple time scales, evaluate how tectonics and climate influence these fluctuations, and examine how the dynamics might be driven by relatedness and heritability between species. This project will provide new avenues of inquiry into the maintenance of biodiversity through time and will help to forge another link between the history of Earth and the history of life. During this project, the researchers will contribute to several programs aimed at increasing diversity in academia and introducing students to entire process of scientific research in geology and paleobiology. These programs include the Nuffield Research Placement Program, a month-long program where the students develop and answer their own research questions, and the UNIQ program, which sponsors high-school students from diverse and underserved communities to take short-courses in fields that interest them. Through these initiatives, the project aims to foster discussion on the vital importance of earth science in our changing world and to inspire a new cohort of dedicated earth scientists.As we enter the Anthropocene, unprecedented climatic and landscape changes are leading to global extinctions and the reorganization of many species’ ranges (Barnosky et al. 2011). Understanding how species ranges have changed through geological time can offer insight into these current and projected future changes. Furthermore, categorizing the dynamics of species range shifts from origination to extinction can increase the ability of conservation organizations and governments to identify and protect species that may be at risk of range loss and extinction. However, the study of species ranges through time is complicated by the extrinsic effects of spatial, taxonomic, and temporal scale (Kemp et al. 2015). Using new methods in paleo-topographic reconstruction paired with advances in paleontological databases and novel evolutionary hypotheses, this research extricates these confounding effects and evaluates multiple facets of range dynamics in the fossil record. The project has three aims: 1) to quantify how species’ geographic ranges fluctuate over multiple temporal scales, 2) to examine the contribution of tectonic, geographic, and climatic factors in structuring range dynamics, and 3) to evaluate the heritability of these range size dynamics and the influence of taxonomic scale on range size fluctuations. The project will use geo-referenced Paleobiology databases, including Triton, PBDB, Neotoma, and NOW to characterize species range size through time and to determine whether the trajectories of range size across a species’ evolutionary history is consistent across taxa and temporal scale. Next, fluctuations in range size will be correlated to periods of climate and tectonic changes, using temporal autoregressive models and stochastic differential equations. Finally, applying phylogenic data from published sources such as Phylacine, the influence of relatedness and heritability on range size trajectories will be evaluated.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.