DISES: Socio-environmental transformation and change following system collapse

该项目将研究综合人类和自然系统的转变，以帮助社会掌握必要的知识，以应对地球生态系统的急剧变化及其对依赖这些变化的人们的影响。转换是指系统的身份、结构和功能的根本变化。它不同于弹性，弹性是系统在面对冲击和干扰时保持其基本结构和功能的能力。尽管最近可持续性科学的重要进展揭示了与复原力相关的因素和条件，但气候变化和栖息地退化等过程可能会使系统超出可持续性。这可能会加剧灭绝、贫困、粮食不安全和社会动荡。因此，社会也需要一门改造的科学。随着墨西哥尤卡坦半岛海参渔业最近的崩溃，项目团队将跟踪小规模渔业社区和邻近海洋环境的变化，回答两个一般性的研究问题。首先，社会环境系统在崩溃后会如何表现？第二，为什么一些社会环境系统在崩溃后发生转变，而另一些系统则恢复到与崩溃前类似的不可持续的模式？回答这些问题的目标是帮助社会将崩溃和灭绝事件转化为重组和改造综合人类和自然系统的机会，并提供更可持续和公平的未来。这项研究的更广泛的影响包括科学外交方面的研究生培训，这将使他们具备应对生态和政治上复杂的环境挑战所必需的技能。通过与墨西哥和美国政府机构以及国际组织建立的专业联系，学生们将与项目团队的导师一起运用科学外交技能，将项目的见解应用于正在进行的社会工作，以实现社会环境转型。该项目将推进社会环境转型科学的理论和方法。结合最近关于社会环境转型的学术研究和墨西哥尤卡坦海参渔业的发现，该研究将产生一个社会环境转型框架。该框架将有助于科学家识别和测试与转型和恢复力的四个不同轨迹相关的因素组合：1)弹性社会环境系统，2)与转型环境系统相关的弹性社会系统，3)与弹性环境系统相关的转型社会系统，4)转型社会环境系统。渔业数据的汇编、水肺潜水样带和深水视频样带将评估剩余海参种群在渔业崩溃和相关生态相互作用后的变化情况。社会调查、访谈和焦点小组将产生数据，以评估崩溃后社会变革的治理、生计和性别维度。基于这些数据，国际团队将创新并应用多学科方法来检测社会环境转型，并将其与恢复力区分开来：社会生态网络分析、空间分析和叙事分析。最后，模糊集定性比较分析将检验关于哪些条件组合与12个小规模渔业社会环境系统的转变有关的假设。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project will study transformation of integrated human and natural systems to help equip society with knowledge necessary for confronting drastic changes to earth’s ecosystems and impacts on the people who depend on them. Transformation refers to a fundamental change in the identity, structure, and function of a system. It is different from resilience, which is the ability of systems to retain their basic structure and function in the face of shocks and disturbance. Although important recent advancements in sustainability science have illuminated factors and conditions associated with resilience, processes such as climate change and habitat degradation can push systems beyond sustainability. This can amplify rates of extinction, poverty, food insecurity, and social unrest. Therefore, society also requires a science of transformation. Following the recent collapse of the sea cucumber fishery in Yucatan, Mexico, the project team will track changes in small-scale fishing communities and adjacent marine environments, answering two general research questions. First, how do socio-environmental systems behave following a collapse? Second, why do some socio-environmental systems transform after collapse while others revert to unsustainable patterns similar to those observed prior to collapse? The goal of answering these questions is to help society turn collapse and extinction events into opportunities to reorganize and transform integrated human and natural systems and provide more sustainable and equitable futures. Broader impacts of the study include graduate student training in science diplomacy this will equip them with the skills necessary to navigate ecologically and politically complex environmental challenges. Through established professional linkages with government agencies in Mexico and the United States and international organizations, the students, alongside the mentors on the project team, will employ science diplomacy skills to apply insights from the project to ongoing efforts in society to operationalize socio-environmental transformation. The project will advance theory and methods for socio-environmental transformation science. Integrating recent scholarship on socio-environmental transformation and findings from the Yucatan, Mexico sea cucumber fishery, the study will produce a Socio-environmental Transformation Framework. The Framework will facilitate scientists to identify and test combinations of factors associated with four divergent trajectories of transformation and resilience: 1) resilient socio-environmental systems, 2) resilient social systems linked to transforming environmental systems, 3) transforming social systems linked to resilient environmental systems, and 4) transforming socio-environmental systems. Compilation of fisheries data, scuba diving transects, and deep-water video transects will evaluate how remnant sea cucumber populations change following the collapse of the fishery and related ecological interactions. Social surveys, interviews, and focus groups will generate data to evaluate governance, livelihood, and gender dimensions of post-collapse social change. Based on these data, the international team will innovate and apply multi-disciplinary methods for detecting socio-environmental transformation and differentiating it from resilience: social-ecological network analysis, spatial analysis, and narrative analysis. Finally, a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis will test hypotheses about which combinations of conditions are associated with transformation in 12 small-scale fishery socio-environmental systems.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.