Drivers of infection outbreaks in a temperature-sensitive host-pathogen system

新出现的传染病威胁着全球生物多样性，并经常表现出与温度有关的季节性暴发。季节性温度变化可能通过各种宿主相关（例如，行为、免疫反应）和病原体相关（例如，发育、生长）途径塑造疾病动态，因此很难预测暴发的时间和规模。该研究项目结合了实验室实验、实地数据和建模，以了解两栖动物-病原体系统中的疾病驱动因素，并对疫情的规模和时间做出预测。所采用的模型在温度敏感的疾病系统中是有用的，研究系统中的发现正在被纳入正在进行的两栖动物管理决策。该团队还正在制定一个关于温度对疾病爆发重要性的课程计划，该计划将被两栖动物病原体监测学生网络使用，这是一个将课堂学习与学生驱动的病原体监测相结合的不断发展的网络。总的来说，该项目采用多学科方法——利用实验室实验、实地数据和建模——阐明温度变化与疾病动态之间的关系，特别是在两栖动物中。这项研究为更好地理解对温度敏感的疾病的生态理解、更明智的管理决策以及将科学与学生联系起来的新教育工具铺平了道路。该项目建立在5年两栖壶类系统的初步数据基础上，该系统具有强烈的季节性动态和详细的个体纵向感染数据，以及有关动物运动的信息。研究人员利用这些实地数据以及补充的实验室实验和机制模型的发展来回答以下四个问题：(1)宿主温度如何决定宿主内病原体的生长？(2)宿主行为如何影响环境温度与宿主温度的关系？(3)环境温度如何影响病原体传播？(4)不同季节温度分布对季节性疾病暴发的时间和规模有何影响？为了对季节性疫情的规模和时间进行推断和预测，该小组正在开发一个综合预测模型的贝叶斯实现，该模型考虑了宿主和病原体检测的不完善，并整合了现场和实验室数据。这种方法扩展了我们对温度敏感疾病系统的理解，如白鼻综合征、蝾螈壶菌病和蛇真菌病，以及温度在宿主-病原体动力学中的一般作用。这项工作是由环境生物学和综合有机体系统部门资助的。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Emerging infectious diseases threaten global biodiversity and often exhibit seasonal outbreaks that are linked to temperature. Seasonal temperature variation may shape disease dynamics through a variety of host-related (e.g., behavior, immune response) and pathogen-related (e.g., development, growth) pathways, making it challenging to predict when and how large outbreaks will be. This research project combines lab experiments, field data, and modeling to understand drivers of disease in an amphibian-pathogen system and to make predictions about the size and timing of outbreaks. The employed model is useful across temperature-sensitive disease systems, and the findings within the study system are being incorporated into ongoing amphibian management decisions. The team also is creating a lesson plan on the importance of temperature to disease outbreaks that will be used by the Student Network for Amphibian Pathogen Surveillance, a growing network that integrates classroom learning with student-powered pathogen surveillance. Collectively, the project utilizes a multidisciplinary approach - employing lab experiments, field data, and modeling - to elucidate the relationship between temperature variations and disease dynamics, particularly in amphibians. The research paves the way for better ecological understanding of temperature-sensitive diseases, more informed management decisions, and new educational tools that connect our science with students.This project builds on five years of preliminary data in an amphibian-chytrid system with strong seasonal dynamics and detailed longitudinal infection data on individuals, as well as information about animal movements. The investigators use these field data along with complementary laboratory experiments and the development of a mechanistic model to answer the following four questions: (1) How does host temperature determine in-host pathogen growth? (2) How does host behavior affect the relationship between environmental temperature and host temperature? (3) How does environmental temperature influence pathogen transmission? (4) How do different seasonal temperature profiles affect the timing and magnitude of seasonal disease outbreaks? To make inferences and predictions about the magnitude and timing of seasonal outbreaks, the team is developing a Bayesian implementation of an integral projection model that accounts for imperfect host and pathogen detection and integrates both field and laboratory data. This approach extends our understanding of temperature-sensitive disease systems, such as white-nose syndrome, salamander chytridiomycosis, and snake fungal disease, as well as the general role of temperature in host-pathogen dynamics.This work is funded by the Divisions of Environmental Biology and Integrative Organismal Systems.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.