Drivers of infection outbreaks in a temperature-sensitive host-pathogen system

新出现的传染病威胁着全球生物多样性，并经常表现出与温度有关的季节性爆发。季节性温度变化可以通过多种宿主相关的（例如，行为，免疫反应）和病原体相关的（例如，发展，增长）途径，这使得预测何时以及多大规模的爆发具有挑战性。该研究项目结合了实验室实验，现场数据和建模，以了解两栖动物病原体系统中疾病的驱动因素，并预测爆发的规模和时间。所采用的模型是有用的温度敏感的疾病系统，研究系统内的研究结果正在纳入正在进行的两栖动物管理决策。该团队还正在制定一个关于温度对疾病爆发的重要性的课程计划，该计划将由两栖动物病原体监测学生网络使用，这是一个不断发展的网络，将课堂学习与学生驱动的病原体监测相结合。总的来说，该项目利用多学科方法-采用实验室实验，现场数据和建模-来阐明温度变化和疾病动态之间的关系，特别是在两栖动物中。该研究为更好地了解温度敏感性疾病的生态学，更明智的管理决策以及将我们的科学与学生联系起来的新教育工具铺平了道路。该项目建立在两栖动物-壶菌系统的五年初步数据基础上，具有强烈的季节动态和详细的个体纵向感染数据，以及有关动物运动的信息。研究人员使用这些现场数据沿着补充实验室实验和一个机械模型的发展来回答以下四个问题：（1）主机温度如何决定在主机病原体的生长？(2)寄主行为如何影响环境温度与寄主温度的关系？(3)环境温度如何影响病原体传播？(4)不同的季节温度分布如何影响季节性疾病暴发的时间和规模？为了对季节性疫情的规模和时间进行推断和预测，该团队正在开发一种整体投影模型的贝叶斯实现，该模型考虑了不完善的宿主和病原体检测，并整合了现场和实验室数据。这种方法扩展了我们对温度敏感性疾病系统的理解，如白鼻综合征，蝾螈壶菌病和蛇真菌病，以及温度在宿主中的一般作用-病原体动力学。这项工作是由环境生物学和综合有机体系统的部门资助。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过评估使用基金会的知识支持。优点和更广泛的影响审查标准。

Emerging infectious diseases threaten global biodiversity and often exhibit seasonal outbreaks that are linked to temperature. Seasonal temperature variation may shape disease dynamics through a variety of host-related (e.g., behavior, immune response) and pathogen-related (e.g., development, growth) pathways, making it challenging to predict when and how large outbreaks will be. This research project combines lab experiments, field data, and modeling to understand drivers of disease in an amphibian-pathogen system and to make predictions about the size and timing of outbreaks. The employed model is useful across temperature-sensitive disease systems, and the findings within the study system are being incorporated into ongoing amphibian management decisions. The team also is creating a lesson plan on the importance of temperature to disease outbreaks that will be used by the Student Network for Amphibian Pathogen Surveillance, a growing network that integrates classroom learning with student-powered pathogen surveillance. Collectively, the project utilizes a multidisciplinary approach - employing lab experiments, field data, and modeling - to elucidate the relationship between temperature variations and disease dynamics, particularly in amphibians. The research paves the way for better ecological understanding of temperature-sensitive diseases, more informed management decisions, and new educational tools that connect our science with students.This project builds on five years of preliminary data in an amphibian-chytrid system with strong seasonal dynamics and detailed longitudinal infection data on individuals, as well as information about animal movements. The investigators use these field data along with complementary laboratory experiments and the development of a mechanistic model to answer the following four questions: (1) How does host temperature determine in-host pathogen growth? (2) How does host behavior affect the relationship between environmental temperature and host temperature? (3) How does environmental temperature influence pathogen transmission? (4) How do different seasonal temperature profiles affect the timing and magnitude of seasonal disease outbreaks? To make inferences and predictions about the magnitude and timing of seasonal outbreaks, the team is developing a Bayesian implementation of an integral projection model that accounts for imperfect host and pathogen detection and integrates both field and laboratory data. This approach extends our understanding of temperature-sensitive disease systems, such as white-nose syndrome, salamander chytridiomycosis, and snake fungal disease, as well as the general role of temperature in host-pathogen dynamics.This work is funded by the Divisions of Environmental Biology and Integrative Organismal Systems.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.