Drivers of infection outbreaks in a temperature-sensitive host-pathogen system

新出现的传染病威胁全球生物多样性，并经常表现出与温度有关的季节性暴发。季节性温度变化可能通过各种与宿主相关的(例如，行为、免疫反应)和与病原体相关的(例如，发育、生长)途径来影响疾病的动态，这使得预测何时爆发以及暴发规模有多大具有挑战性。这项研究项目结合了实验室实验、现场数据和建模，以了解两栖动物病原体系统中疾病的驱动因素，并对疫情的大小和时间进行预测。所采用的模型在对温度敏感的疾病系统中很有用，研究系统内的发现正在被纳入正在进行的两栖动物管理决策中。该团队还在制定一份关于温度对疾病爆发的重要性的教案，将被两栖动物病原体监测学生网络使用，这是一个不断增长的网络，将课堂学习与学生支持的病原体监测相结合。总体而言，该项目利用多学科方法--使用实验室实验、田间数据和建模--来阐明温度变化和疾病动态之间的关系，特别是在两栖动物中。这项研究为更好地从生态学上理解温度敏感型疾病、更明智的管理决策以及将我们的科学与学生联系起来的新的教育工具铺平了道路。这个项目建立在一个具有强烈季节性动态的两栖类-壶类系统中五年的初步数据和关于个体的详细纵向感染数据以及关于动物活动的信息的基础上。研究人员利用这些现场数据，结合补充的实验室实验和机理模型的发展，回答了以下四个问题：(1)寄主温度如何决定寄主内病原体的生长；(2)寄主行为如何影响环境温度和寄主温度之间的关系；(3)环境温度如何影响病原体的传播？(4)不同的季节温度分布如何影响季节性疾病爆发的时间和程度？为了对季节性疫情的规模和时间做出推断和预测，该团队正在开发一种综合预测模型的贝叶斯实现，该模型解释了不完美的宿主和病原体检测，并整合了现场和实验室数据。这种方法扩展了我们对温度敏感型疾病系统的理解，如白鼻症、火蜥蜴丝状真菌病和蛇真菌病，以及温度在宿主-病原体动态中的一般作用。这项工作由环境生物学和综合组织系统部门资助。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Emerging infectious diseases threaten global biodiversity and often exhibit seasonal outbreaks that are linked to temperature. Seasonal temperature variation may shape disease dynamics through a variety of host-related (e.g., behavior, immune response) and pathogen-related (e.g., development, growth) pathways, making it challenging to predict when and how large outbreaks will be. This research project combines lab experiments, field data, and modeling to understand drivers of disease in an amphibian-pathogen system and to make predictions about the size and timing of outbreaks. The employed model is useful across temperature-sensitive disease systems, and the findings within the study system are being incorporated into ongoing amphibian management decisions. The team also is creating a lesson plan on the importance of temperature to disease outbreaks that will be used by the Student Network for Amphibian Pathogen Surveillance, a growing network that integrates classroom learning with student-powered pathogen surveillance. Collectively, the project utilizes a multidisciplinary approach - employing lab experiments, field data, and modeling - to elucidate the relationship between temperature variations and disease dynamics, particularly in amphibians. The research paves the way for better ecological understanding of temperature-sensitive diseases, more informed management decisions, and new educational tools that connect our science with students.This project builds on five years of preliminary data in an amphibian-chytrid system with strong seasonal dynamics and detailed longitudinal infection data on individuals, as well as information about animal movements. The investigators use these field data along with complementary laboratory experiments and the development of a mechanistic model to answer the following four questions: (1) How does host temperature determine in-host pathogen growth? (2) How does host behavior affect the relationship between environmental temperature and host temperature? (3) How does environmental temperature influence pathogen transmission? (4) How do different seasonal temperature profiles affect the timing and magnitude of seasonal disease outbreaks? To make inferences and predictions about the magnitude and timing of seasonal outbreaks, the team is developing a Bayesian implementation of an integral projection model that accounts for imperfect host and pathogen detection and integrates both field and laboratory data. This approach extends our understanding of temperature-sensitive disease systems, such as white-nose syndrome, salamander chytridiomycosis, and snake fungal disease, as well as the general role of temperature in host-pathogen dynamics.This work is funded by the Divisions of Environmental Biology and Integrative Organismal Systems.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.