Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Poverty Graduation and Business Coordination

该奖项将支持使用现场实验（随机对照试验[RCT]）的研究，以了解穷人或接近穷人的多重重叠约束如何变成贫困陷阱。这项研究利用了一项大型反贫困计划的推出来进行这项随机对照试验。然后，研究调查了广泛使用和最成功的反贫困项目——毕业项目——的机制，该项目每月为受助人提供现金支持、创业培训、指导和一次性创业。本研究着重于干预产生的几个结果。与以往对毕业项目的研究不同，本研究进一步研究了鼓励参与者同时创办多家微型企业是否会导致过度拥挤，从而导致这些企业倒闭。除了治疗的直接效果外，研究人员还将研究治疗的溢出效应。研究人员将定期从项目参与者那里收集几个结果的数据，使他们能够评估在研究结束时难以评估的结果。这项研究的结果将有助于改善反贫困项目的设计和实施，并有助于确立美国在减贫政策方面的全球领导者地位。本研究项目利用一项大型反贫困项目的推出，采用随机对照试验（RCT）方法研究多重重叠约束如何变成贫困陷阱，并研究针对超贫困人口的毕业项目成功背后的机制。除了直接影响外，研究人员还将调查干预的间接影响，以及调查鼓励毕业生在同一社区创办几家专注于类似产品或服务的微型企业是否会引发不必要的竞争从而导致失败，以及协调是否有助于企业家多样性取得成功。这些问题是通过在社区一级随机改变受治疗家庭的数量，从外部改变竞争水平来检验的。这项研究的一个重要方面是将收集的高频数据，使研究人员能够跟踪毕业生决策和成功的动态，并测试基于冲击的贫困陷阱模型。这项研究的结果将有助于改善反贫困项目的设计和实施，并有助于确立美国在减贫政策方面的全球领导者地位。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This award will support research that uses field experiments (randomized controlled trial [RCT]) to understand how multiple overlapping constraints on the poor or near poor turn into a poverty trap. The research takes advantage of the roll-out of a large anti-poverty program to conduct this RCT. The research then investigates the mechanisms through which the widely used and most successful anti-poverty program---the graduation program---which offers recipients monthly cash support, training in entrepreneurship, mentorship, and one-time business startup takes effect. This research focuses on several outcomes stemming from the intervention. Unlike previous studies on graduation programs, this research further studies whether encouraging participants to start several microenterprises at the same time leads to overcrowding, thus leading to failure of these enterprises. In addition to direct effects of the treatment, the researchers will also study the spillover effects of the treatment. The researchers will collect data from program participants at regular short intervals on several outcomes that allows them to evaluate outcomes that are difficult to evaluate at the end of the study. The results of this study will help improve the design and implementation of anti-poverty programs and help establish the US as a global leader in poverty reduction policies. This research project leverages the roll-out of a large anti-poverty program to use a randomized control trial (RCT) method to study how multiple overlapping constraints can turn into a poverty trap and study the mechanisms behind the success of graduation programs for the ultra-poor. In addition to the direct effects, the researchers will investigate the indirect effects of the intervention as well as investigate whether encouraging graduates to start several microenterprises focusing on similar product or services in the same neighborhoods induces unnecessary competition and thus lead to failure and whether coordination help entrepreneurs diversity to achieve success. Thes questions are tested by exogenously changing the level of competition by randomly varying the number of treated households at the community level. An important aspect of this research is the high frequency data that will be collected that allows the researchers to track the dynamics of graduates’ decision making and success as well test a shock-based model of poverty traps. The results of this study will help improve the design and implementation of anti-poverty programs and help establish the US as a global leader in poverty reduction policies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.