The causal impact of trade integration on individual workers: job stability, earnings, and geographical labor mobility

贸易一体化对个体工人的因果影响：工作稳定性、收入和劳动力地域流动性

• 批准号: 256628488
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Wolfgang Dauth
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Düsseldorfer Institut für Wettbewerbsökonomie
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2013-12-31 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/256628488?language=en
• 关键词: causal; impact; trade; integration; individual

The objective of this project is to investigate how individual workers in Germany adjust to trade shocks, more specifically, to the rise of China and Eastern Europe in the world economy. Drawing on methodology recently developed in labor economics and international trade, we measure the import and the export exposure of the sector in which a particular worker is employed. We then relate this sectoral exposure to different individual labor market outcomes. To tease out the causal effect of trade, we use an instrumental variable technique where third-country trade flows are considered as instruments for import exposure across German industries.Our specific focus are three different, interrelated adjustment mechanisms where we have identified gaps in the existing literature, and the need for further research: 1) Employment and job stability, 2) Wages and wage inequality, and 3) geographical labor mobility.On the first aspect, previous research has shown that average expected employment durations tend to be higher in sectors with higher export exposure. This can be compatible with recent theories of international trade if the aggregate increase in job duration is driven by an expansion of productive exporting firms which, in turn, leads to a stabilization of employment relationships for their incumbent workers. To investigate this hypothesis, we aim to carefully analyze for which worker-establishment pairs expected job durations are positively affected by trade exposure. Specifically, do employment durations react more positively to trade shocks in such establishments that were traditional exporters, or in such establishments that switch to become exporters? On the second aspect, our main aim is to provide a detailed analysis how trade shocks affect wages in Germany, differentiated by the type of establishment the respective individual is affiliated with. After estimating the causal effect of the rise of the East on individual wages, we provide a detailed comparison with previous results that attribute most of the observed increase in wage inequality in Germany to skill-biased technological change. Moreover, we set our results into perspective to the recent literature on job polarization and task offshoring. The key challenge is to investigate if trade or technology is the main driver of wage inequality in Germany.Finally, on the third aspect, we investigate if trade shocks induce individual mobility responses, and what the effects of those responses are. To do so, we first develop a theoretical framework where industries are hit by exogenous trade shocks, and where workers faced with those shocks can respond with geographical labor mobility. Local housing prices adjust to these induced waves of labor mobility, and hence the trade shocks are endogenously capitalized in those prices. Using German labor market and newly collected housing price data, we then apply this framework in order to understand individual adjustment margins.

这个项目的目标是调查德国的个别工人如何适应贸易冲击，更具体地说，是如何适应中国和东欧在世界经济中的崛起。借鉴最近在劳动经济学和国际贸易中发展起来的方法论，我们衡量了特定工人所在行业的进出口敞口。然后，我们将这种部门敞口与不同的个体劳动力市场结果联系起来。为了梳理出贸易的因果效应，我们使用了一种工具变量技术，即第三国贸易流动被视为德国各行业进口敞口的工具。我们特别关注的是三种不同的、相互关联的调整机制，我们在现有文献中发现了这些机制的差距，以及进一步研究的必要性：1)就业和工作稳定性，2)工资和工资不平等，以及3)地理劳动力流动。在第一个方面，先前的研究表明，在出口敞口较高的行业，平均预期就业持续时间往往更长。这可能与最近的国际贸易理论相一致，如果工作时间的总体增加是由生产性出口公司的扩张推动的，而这反过来又导致其在任工人的雇佣关系稳定。为了研究这一假设，我们的目标是仔细分析哪些工人-机构对的预期工作持续时间受到贸易敞口的积极影响。具体地说，在这些传统出口商的机构中，还是在转变为出口商的这些机构中，雇佣期限对贸易冲击的反应更积极？关于第二个方面，我们的主要目标是详细分析贸易冲击如何影响德国的工资，并根据个人所属的机构类型进行区分。在估计了东方崛起对个人工资的因果影响之后，我们与之前的结果进行了详细的比较，这些结果将德国工资不平等的加剧主要归因于以技能为导向的技术变革。此外，我们将我们的结果与最近关于工作两极分化和任务离岸的文献进行了比较。关键的挑战是调查贸易或技术是否是德国工资不平等的主要驱动因素。最后，在第三个方面，我们调查贸易冲击是否会引发个人流动性反应，以及这些反应的影响是什么。为了做到这一点，我们首先建立了一个理论框架，在这个框架中，行业受到外部贸易冲击的打击，面临这些冲击的工人可以通过地理劳动力流动来应对。当地房价会根据这些引发的劳动力流动浪潮进行调整，因此贸易冲击在这些价格中得到了内生的资本化。然后，我们利用德国劳动力市场和新收集的房价数据，应用这个框架来理解个人调整边际。