International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions

这项研究开发了一个分析框架，以了解经济制裁对国际贸易和宏观经济活动的短期、中期和长期后果。这些结果提供了一个路线图，说明了几种类型的制裁--贸易和金融--可能如何发挥作用，当目标国家不小的时候，它们可能如何影响目标国家和全球经济中的个别代理人、贸易和宏观经济总量。结果还表明，汇率不是评估制裁有效性的有用指标。目标国家的货币贬值或升值反映了制裁的类型，以及各经济体如何通过在生产部门之间重新分配资源进行调整。该框架通过确定政府想要实施的最佳制裁菜单、国际协调或缺乏国际协调对这一菜单的影响以及制裁对财政和货币政策实施的影响，为政策提供指导。这项研究与讨论持续的地缘政治紧张局势的经济影响和理解经济战有关。分析始于一个易于处理的数学模型，即国内和国外两个国家，在生产差异化消费品(Home)或同质商品(例如，天然气-国外)方面具有相对优势。国内对外国实施贸易和金融制裁。贸易制裁是通过(1)禁止国际天然气贸易或(2)将最具生产力的消费部门公司排除在国际贸易之外。金融制裁意味着将一部分外国代理人排除在国际资产市场之外(当所有外国代理人被排除在外时，金融制裁意味着金融自给自足)。消费者可获得的产品范围的变化是传递制裁的核心。例如，为了应对禁止国内生产率最高的公司向外国出口的制裁，国内出口商的平均生产率下降，外国进口的平均价格上升。外国家庭将需求转向外国公司生产的国内产品，这些产品的生产率低于本国出口商。较高的平均进口价格和需求向国内商品的转变导致国外价格水平上升，国内汇率贬值。作为对天然气贸易禁令的回应，Foreign通过将资源转移到消费品生产来弥补出口收入的损失进行调整。外国消费出口商的数量增加，他们的平均生产率下降，导致国内进口平均价格更高，国内汇率升值。当第三国加入该框架时，可以调查替代效应对贸易和国际制裁协调的影响。这些活动的结果，其中制裁被视为外在给予，为下一部分的研究议程提供了基础，重点是制裁的最佳选择，它们与财政和货币政策的互动，以及宏观经济政策制定者应该如何应对制裁的影响。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research develops an analytical framework to understand the short-, medium-, and long-term consequences of economic sanctions on international trade and macroeconomic activity. The results provide a roadmap on how several types of sanctions, trade and financial, might work, how they might affect individual agents, trade, and macroeconomic aggregates in the targeted country and the global economy when that country is not small. The results also show that the exchange rate is not a useful metric for evaluating the effectiveness of sanctions. The targeted country's currency depreciation or appreciation reflects the type of sanction and how economies adjust by reallocating resources across production sectors. The framework provides guidance for policy by determining the optimal menu of sanctions that a government would want to impose, how this menu is affected by international coordination or lack thereof, and the implications of sanctions for the conduct of fiscal and monetary policies. This research is relevant for the discussions of the economic effects of ongoing geopolitical tensions and for an understanding of economic warfare.The analysis begins with a tractable mathematical model of two countries, Home and Foreign, with comparative advantage in production of differentiated consumption goods (Home) or a homogeneous commodity (e.g., gas—Foreign). Home imposes trade and financial sanctions on Foreign. Trade sanctions are introduced through (i) a ban on international gas trade or (ii) the exclusion of most productive consumption-sector firms from international trade. Financial sanctions imply the exclusion of a portion of Foreign agents from international asset markets (when all Foreign agents are excluded, financial sanctions imply financial autarky). Changes in the range of products available to consumers are central to the transmissions of sanctions. For instance, in response to sanctions that prohibit the most productive Home firms from exporting to Foreign, average Home exporter productivity falls, and the average price of Foreign imports rises. Foreign households shift demand toward domestic goods produced by Foreign firms that are less productive than Home exporters. A higher average import price and the shift in demand toward domestic goods cause the Foreign price level to rise and the Home exchange rate to depreciate. In response to a ban on gas trade, Foreign adjusts by shifting resources to production of consumption goods to replace lost export revenue. The number of Foreign consumption exporters rises, and their average productivity falls, resulting in a higher average price of Home imports and Home exchange rate appreciation. When a third country is added to the framework, the impact of substitution effects on trade and international sanctions coordination can be investigated. The results of these exercises, in which sanctions are taken as exogenously given, provide the foundation for the next part of the research agenda, which focuses on the optimal choice of sanctions, their interaction with fiscal and monetary policies, and how macroeconomic policymakers should respond to the effects of sanctions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.