The effects of macroeconomic changes on labor market mobility, job stability, and returns to tenure in Germany

近年来，德国劳动力市场已转向较低的失业率，但临时就业的比例更大。工作稳定性的下降在德国公众中引起了积极的讨论。几十年来，经验主义劳动经济学家一直在研究终身制的回报，以衡量工作稳定性带来的好处，但现有的经验证据是混合的。我们的研究项目将应用德国劳动力市场的结构估计搜索模型，分析宏观经济环境中的制度和技术变化对人力资本积累，工人流动性，工作稳定性，工资动态，特别是，回到了任期。我们的方法旨在弥合宏观经济理论和实证劳动经济学之间的差距。如果终身制的回报率很高，那么更高水平的工作稳定性可能是可取的，即使它以更僵化的劳动力市场为代价。政策处方不仅关键取决于确定保有权回归的范围，而且还取决于了解其与工人流动性的联系。我们的结构建模方法使我们能够精确定位这些联系。它揭示了以前的结果，并将使我们能够研究一般均衡反馈效应的宏观经济环境的变化。具体而言，拟议的研究项目的目标有三个方面：第一，我们开发和估计的结构一般均衡模型的德国劳动力市场使用微观数据的就业和工资的历史。该模型包含人口结构、内生工资动态、求职决策、自愿离职和非自愿裁员。其次，我们将使用该模型来指导对保有权回报的实证分析。我们的方法估计的回报，以保有权相结合的结构性搜索模型与估计策略，从治疗控制范式广泛使用的实证文献调查的位移成本。我们将模拟存在和不存在任期积累的就业和工资历史，以告知我们任期的回报。通过比较反事实的历史，我们将占放弃搜索的机会成本，同时积累保有权。第三，我们将使用一般均衡框架，对制度和技术变化对人力资本积累、劳动者流动和工资动态的影响进行讨论。哈茨改革就是一个很好的例子。我们的分析将建立在Ljungqvist和萨金特（1998）对欧洲失业困境的开创性贡献的基础上。他们的论文强调了工作不稳定性、技能积累和制度变革之间相互作用的重要性。然而，其模式的重要特征仍然是外生的。相反，搜索理论的最新发展将使我们能够在分析中内生工资形成和工作流动性决定。

In recent years, the German labor market has shifted towards lower unemployment but a larger share of temporary employment. This decrease in job stability has been actively discussed in the German public. For decades, empirical labor economists have studied the returns to tenure as a measure of the benefits from job stability, but the available empirical evidence is mixed.Our research project will apply a structurally estimated search model of the German labor market to analyze the effects of institutional and technological changes in the macroeconomic environment on human capital accumulation, worker mobility, job stability, wage dynamics, in particular, returns to tenure. Our approach aims at bridging the gap between macroeconomic theory and empirical labor economics.If returns to tenure are high, a higher level of job stability may be preferable even if it comes at the expense of a more rigid labor market. Policy prescriptions crucially depend not only on identifying the extend of returns to tenure but also on understanding its linkages to worker mobility. Our structural modeling approach enables us to pinpoint these linkages. It sheds light on previous results and will enable us to study general equilibrium feedback effects from changes in the macroeconomic environment. Specifically, the objectives of the proposed research project are threefold:First, we develop and estimate a structural general equilibrium model of the German labor market using micro data on employment and wage histories. The model has a demographic structure, endogenous wage dynamics, job search decisions, voluntary separations, and involuntary layoffs. Second, we will use the model to guide the empirical analysis on the returns to tenure. Our approach of estimating the returns to tenure combines a structural search model with estimation strategies from the treatment-control paradigm widely used in the empirical literature investigating the costs of displacement. We will simulate employment and wage histories in the presence and absence of tenure accumulation to inform us about the returns to tenure. By comparing counterfactual histories we will account for the opportunity costs of foregone search while accumulating tenure. This fills a gap in existing estimators.Third, we will use the general equilibrium framework to contribute to the debate on the effects of institutional and technological changes on human capital accumulation, worker mobility, and wage dynamics. The Hartz reforms serve as an excellent example. Our analysis will build on the seminal contribution of Ljungqvist and Sargent (1998) on the European unemployment dilemma. Their paper stresses the importance of interactions between job instability, skill accumulation, and institutional changes. However, important features of their model remain exogenous. Instead, recent developments in search theory will allow us to endogenize wage formation and job mobility decisions in our analysis.