RAPID: The East Anatolian fault earthquake sequence of 6 February 2023: epicentral afterslip and anticipated future rupture propagation

国际和平研究所建议建造四个“延伸仪”，这是一种设备，可以精确测量暴露在地球表面的断层的偏移量，并将它们安装在土耳其的东安纳托利亚断裂带(EAFZ)沿线。EAFZ是2023年2月6日发生的7.8级和7.5级地震的罪魁祸首，这两次地震最近摧毁了土耳其东南部的大部分地区。这些仪器将在地震发生几周到几个月后，详细测量沿着断层的慢运动偏移持续的程度--在未来发生地震的情况下，它们将测量断层上的突然或逐渐偏移。这些信息有助于地震学家了解地震是如何发生的，估计该地区未来发生大地震的可能性，并确定EAFZ中倾向于逐渐移动而不是产生大地震的部分。PI将与他非常了解并在过去合作过的土耳其科学家一起做这项工作。他和他的合作者还将对监测土耳其其他危险断层的引伸仪进行必要的维修，以便他们可以通过5G蜂窝服务实时发送数据。PI建议在2023年2月6日7.8级和7.5级地震加载的东安纳托利亚断层段安装四个引伸仪。延伸仪数据，连同地震和大地测量观测，将提供有关地震后持续蠕变和应力转移的信息，这将为地震危险的概率估计提供依据。这些数据还将约束EAFZ地震孕育区的摩擦特性，并为潜在的EAFZ地震提供同震和震后滑动约束。除了安装和遥测新的延伸仪外，PI还将与土耳其同事合作，将北安纳托利亚断裂带(NAFZ)沿线现有Gage延伸仪的遥测升级到5G。Bilham将与伊斯坦布尔技术大学和Kandilli天文台的土耳其科学家密切合作，加强现有的合作，并与学生分享蠕变仪设计、安装和解释知识。新的蠕变数据将通过UNAVCO/Gage数据档案自由和公开共享。这一裁决反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The PI proposes to build four "extensometers", which are devices that precisely measure offsets across faults exposed at the Earth's surface, and install them along the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) in Turkey. The EAFZ is responsible for the M 7.8 and M 7.5 6 February 2023 earthquakes that recently devastated much of southeastern Turkey. These instruments will measure in detail how slow-motion offset along the fault is continuing, weeks to months after the earthquakes - and in the event of future earthquakes, they will measure sudden or gradual offsets across the fault. This information helps seismologists understand how earthquakes occur, estimate the probability of future large earthquakes in the region, and identify parts of the EAFZ that tend to move gradually instead of generating large earthquakes. The PI will be doing this work with Turkish scientists he knows well and has worked with in the past. He and his collaborators will also make needed repairs to extensometers monitoring other dangerous faults in Turkey, so they can send out their data in real time via 5G cellular service.The PI proposes to install four extensometers along segments of the East Anatolian Fault that were loaded by the 6 February 2023 M 7.8 and M 7.5 earthquakes. The extensometer data, together with seismic and geodetic observations, will provide information about ongoing postseismic creep and stress transfer, which feeds into probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard. These data will also constrain frictional properties of the EAFZ seismogenic zone and provide coseismic and postseismic slip constraints for potential, future EAFZ earthquakes. In addition to installing and telemetering new extensometers, the PI will work with Turkish colleagues to upgrade the telemetry on existing GAGE extensometers along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) to 5G. Bilham will work closely with Turkish scientists from Istanbul Technical University and Kandilli Observatory, strengthening an existing collaboration and sharing creepmeter design, installation, and interpretation knowledge with students. The new creep data will be freely and publicly shared via the UNAVCO/GAGE data archive.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.