CAS-Climate: To Irrigate or Not? Assessing Climate Change Adaptation for Sustainable Water-Agriculture Systems in the Mississippi River Basin

CAS-气候：灌溉还是不灌溉？

• 批准号: 2324837
• 负责人: Yadu Pokhrel
• 金额: $ 80万
• 依托单位: Michigan State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-10-01 至 2026-09-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2324837&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAS; Climate; Irrigate; Assessing; Change

The Mississippi River basin (MRB) is a region where complex water, agricultural, and environmental challenges are rapidly emerging and are expected to be exacerbated by climate change. Agricultural intensification has enabled consistently upward crop yield trends, but at the cost of many adverse impacts on water resources (e.g., groundwater depletion) and ecological systems (e.g., Gulf hypoxia). In the primarily rainfed agroecosystems in the eastern MRB, sustaining crop yield trends under future climate could require substantial irrigation expansion. Conversely, in the western MRB—particularly over parts of the High Plains Aquifer (HPA)—intensive groundwater irrigation is causing aquifer depletion. Thus, sustainable agricultural intensification in the divergent MRB agroecosystems under future climate will likely require adaptation strategies that involve transitions from rainfed to irrigated farming and vice versa, which will have profound implications on the intricately interwoven water, agricultural, nutrient, and ecological systems. This project will address this complex water-agriculture-nutrient nexus challenge by examining the effectiveness of various agricultural adaptation measures under a range of climate change scenarios. It will engage K-12 students in outreach activities related to pressing water-food-environmental issues in the US, provide computational research opportunities for undergraduate students, and train graduate students at the interface of multiple disciplines. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, extension activities at two universities, and conference presentations. Outcomes will be relevant to critical problems faced by farmers, water managers, and broader MRB communities.The project objectives are to (i) assess the need, potential, and feasibility of irrigation expansion in the eastern MRB to sustain food production under climate change, (ii) quantify water scarcity under sustained irrigation and future climate in the western MRB, (iii) assess plausible agricultural adaptation strategies to reduce water stress across the HPA, and (iv) quantify the changes in green, blue, and gray water footprints across the entire MRB under various adaptation and climate change scenarios. The project will use a newly integrated hydrological-agricultural-ecological modeling framework based on the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5), capable of simulating surface water, groundwater, crop growth, agricultural management, irrigation, reservoir operation, and nutrient flow processes over large domains. The framework will offer novel capabilities to study the co-evolution of water, agriculture, and nutrient systems under climate change and assess alternative water and crop management practices at relatively high resolution, yet over large domains. The study will generate new knowledge on sustainable agricultural intensification across the divergent eastern and western MRB agroecosystems using climate change adaptation measures that holistically consider water resource sustainability and basin-wide gray water footprint. The novel systems modeling approach will contribute to advancing research on coupled natural and human systems toward next generation Earth system science. This award is co-funded by the Environmental Sustainability and Hydrologic Sciences programs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

密西西比河盆地（MRB）是一个迅速出现的复杂水，农业和环境挑战的地区，预计气候变化会加剧。农业强化使农作物产量的趋势始终如一，但造成了对水资源（例如地下水耗尽）和生态系统（例如海湾缺氧）的许多不利影响。在东部MRB的原发性雨养农业系统中，未来气候下的作物产量趋势可能需要大量灌溉扩展。相反，在西部MRB（尤其是在高平原含水层（HPA）的部分地区）中，密集的地下水灌溉正在引起含水层的耗竭。这是，在未来气候下，在不同的MRB农业生态系统中，可持续的农业强化可能需要适应策略，涉及从雨水到灌溉农业的过渡，反之亦然，这将对精致的交织水，农业，营养和生态系统产生深远的影响。该项目将通过在一系列气候变化情况下检查各种农业适应措施的有效性来解决这一复杂的水农业营养不良联系挑战。它将吸引K-12学生参加与在美国紧迫的环境问题有关的外展活动，为本科生提供计算研究机会，并在多个学科的界面上培训研究生。结果将通过经过同行评审的出版物，两所大学的推广活动和会议演讲来传播。结果将与农民，水管理人员和更广泛的MRB社区面临的关键问题有关。项目目标是（i）评估东部MRB灌溉扩展的需求，潜在和可行性，以维持气候变化下的粮食生产，以在气候变化下维持粮食生产，（ii）量化跨度灌溉的水平和未来的策略，以评估西部MRB（III II）（III）（III II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II），（III II II）（III） HPA和（iv）在各种适应和气候变化方案下，量化了整个MRB的绿色，蓝色和灰水足迹的变化。该项目将使用基于社区土地模型版本5（CLM5）的新成立的水文农业生态模型框架，能够模拟地表水，地下水，农作物生长，农业管理，灌溉，储备，储备，储备运营以及大型领域的营养流程。该框架将提供新的能力，以研究气候变化和评估替代水和作物管理实践的水，农业和营养系统的共同进化，但分辨率相对较高，但在大型领域。这项研究将使用气候变化适应措施，从整体上考虑水资源可持续性和盆地范围内的灰色水足迹。新颖的系统建模方法将有助于推进对耦合的自然和人类系统迈向下一代地球系统科学的研究。该奖项由环境可持续性和水文科学计划共同资助。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响标准，通过评估诚实地表示支持。