DISES: Decision Making for Land Use Planning under Future Climate Scenarios through Engaged Research via Co-Design

DISES：通过联合设计参与研究，在未来气候情景下制定土地利用规划决策

• 批准号: 2401273
• 负责人: Amy Frazier
• 金额: $ 159.98万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Barbara
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-10-01 至 2026-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2401273&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: DISES; Decision; Making; Land; Use

The apparent loss of biodiversity as a function of human activities has many species on the brink of extinction. However, humans slso have the power to make the decisions to prevent biodiversity losses and improve ecosystem functioning on Earth. This research addresses the question of how scientists and decision makers can work together to develop sustainable land-use solutions in a way that leverages the best available data, technology, and predictive tools in a manner that can be translated into policy action. The researchers on this project will work directly with scientists and policy makers in Colombia—the second most biodiverse country in the world—to develop models that can predict future land use changes and use those models to make sustainable land-use decisions. A broad set of participants will engage in the research through workshops where the models will be developed, and participant feedback will be used to improve the usability and usefulness of the outputs. The effectiveness of the approach will be evaluated to determine how such an engaged research approach can be improved in the future. Additionally, this project will broaden participation in conservation science and STEM by providing training and mentoring to students and postdocs.Bringing together scientists and decision makers through an engaged research approach, this project uses co-design to advance toward more viable systems of knowledge production that involve decision makers in shaping the research, not just receiving the outcomes. Basic scientific theories and models of land use and biodiversity forecasting will be advanced by integrating diverse, multi-scale data into dynamic prediction models to inform actionable and sustainable land use plans to prevent the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services while also ensuring food and energy security into the future. These projections will be used to prioritize different areas for conservation, agriculture, and energy land uses according to stakeholder inputs and feedback so that they can support sustainable land-use decisions in support of global targets such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity’s 30x30 target. The sensitivity of the models to user-determined scenarios and data inputs will be assessed to inform how the model responds to different points of leverage on the target variables leading to different land use prioritizations and different model parameterizations. The process of knowledge creation and use will also be assessed for its efficacy and effectiveness to better understand how co-design can lead to translational research outcomes and interventions that will ultimately improve the decision-making capacity of agencies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

由于人类活动导致生物多样性的明显丧失，许多物种濒临灭绝。然而，人类有权做出决定，防止生物多样性丧失，改善地球上的生态系统功能。这项研究解决的问题是，科学家和决策者如何共同努力，以一种可以转化为政策行动的方式，利用现有的最佳数据、技术和预测工具，制定可持续的土地利用解决方案。该项目的研究人员将直接与哥伦比亚的科学家和政策制定者合作，开发能够预测未来土地利用变化的模型，并使用这些模型做出可持续的土地利用决策。哥伦比亚是世界上生物多样性第二丰富的国家。广泛的参与者将通过研讨会参与研究，在研讨会上将制定模型，并将利用参与者的反馈来改进产出的实用性和有用性。将对该方法的有效性进行评估，以确定今后如何改进这种参与式研究方法。此外，该项目将通过为学生和博士后提供培训和指导，扩大对保护科学和STEM的参与。该项目通过积极参与的研究方法将科学家和决策者联系在一起，使用共同设计来推进更可行的知识生产系统，让决策者参与塑造研究，而不仅仅是接受结果。将通过将各种多尺度数据整合到动态预测模型中，提出土地利用和生物多样性预测的基本科学理论和模型，为可操作和可持续的土地利用计划提供信息，以防止生物多样性和生态系统服务的损失，同时确保未来的粮食和能源安全。这些预测将被用于根据利益相关者的输入和反馈来确定不同的保护、农业和能源土地使用领域的优先顺序，以便它们能够支持可持续土地利用决策，以支持全球目标，如联合国可持续发展目标和生物多样性公约的30x30目标。将评估模型对用户确定的情景和数据输入的敏感性，以告知模型如何对目标变量的不同杠杆点做出反应，从而导致不同的土地利用优先顺序和不同的模型参数。还将评估知识创造和使用的过程的有效性和有效性，以更好地了解联合设计如何产生转译研究成果和干预措施，最终提高机构的决策能力。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。