Monetary and fiscal policy interaction

货币和财政政策互动

• 批准号: 260768860
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Alexander Kriwoluzky
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Department of Economics
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Fellowships
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2013-12-31 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/260768860?language=en
• 关键词: Monetary; fiscal; policy; interaction

Before the financial crisis of 2008, the consensus among macroeconomists was to study monetary and fiscal policy separately. Central bank independence was generally seen as assured and monetary, not fiscal policy, was responsible for the stabilization of the economy. The global financial crisis has challenged this consensus. When the crisis grew into a sovereign debt crisis and yields on government debt rose sharply, Mario Draghi, the President of of the European Central Bank (ECB), announced that the ECB would ensure the stability of government bond markets by any means necessary. By taking government bond yields into account when making its policy decision, the ECB blurs the once clear-cut distinction between monetary and fiscal policy. Yet, not only is the central bank no longer entirely independent from the actions of the fiscal authority, fiscal stabilization policy itself has made a comeback. Recent research demonstrates that fiscal stimulus packages could be particularly effective at stimulating the economy when the main policy instrument of the central bank is stuck at the zero lower bound. These developments demonstrate that fiscal and monetary policy are intimately connected in the post-crisis world. The interaction of monetary and fiscal policy is the central focus of my proposed research agenda. I intend to study the effects of the interaction on key macro variables such as output, inflation, and public debt. The proposed research agenda has three parts: first, I investigate to what extend the inclusion of fiscal variables helps to solve a puzzling observation in monetary economics. The puzzle is that the innovations to monetary policy one obtains using the narrative approach, i.e. by studying the intentions of policy makers, are very different from the innovations one obtains estimating a standard Vector Autoregression model. The second project starts from the observation that the relationship between inflation and public deficits is time-varying. The question is whether these movements are related to the changing interaction of monetary and fiscal policy and might provide guidelines for theoretical modeling. In the third project, I plan to subject the models about the interconnectedness of monetary and fiscal policy to a real-world test. I will ask whether the policies applied in Germany during the 1930s conform to the hypothesis of unconventional fiscal and monetary policy at the zero lower bound. Germany is of special interest because since Germany had experienced a hyperinflation in 1923, the government was not able to announce that there will be higher inflation in the future. Therefore it is questionable whether the explanation, which highlights the shift in expectations, is applicable for Germany. The third project aims at finding an alternative explanation.

在2008年金融危机之前，宏观经济学家的共识是分别研究货币政策和财政政策。人们普遍认为中央银行的独立性是有保证的，稳定经济的是货币政策，而不是财政政策。全球金融危机挑战了这一共识。当危机发展成主权债务危机，政府债券收益率大幅上升时，欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉宣布，欧洲央行将采取一切必要手段确保政府债券市场的稳定。欧洲央行在做出政策决定时将政府债券收益率考虑在内，模糊了货币政策和财政政策之间曾经泾渭分明的界限。然而，不仅中央银行不再完全独立于财政当局的行动，财政稳定政策本身也卷土重来。最近的研究表明，当中央银行的主要政策工具停留在零下限时，财政刺激一揽子计划在刺激经济方面可能特别有效。这些事态发展表明，在危机后世界，财政政策和货币政策密切相关。货币政策和财政政策的相互作用是我提出的研究议程的中心焦点。我打算研究这种相互作用对产出、通货膨胀和公共债务等关键宏观变量的影响。本文的研究议程分为三个部分：首先，探讨在何种程度上纳入财政变量有助于解决货币经济学中一个令人困惑的问题。令人困惑的是，使用叙事方法（即通过研究政策制定者的意图）获得的货币政策创新与估计标准向量自回归模型获得的创新非常不同。第二个项目从观察通货膨胀和公共赤字之间的关系是随时间变化的开始。问题是，这些变化是否与货币和财政政策不断变化的相互作用有关，并可能为理论建模提供指导。在第三个项目中，我计划对货币政策和财政政策相互关联的模型进行真实世界的测试。我会问，20世纪30年代德国实施的政策是否符合非常规财政和货币政策处于零下限的假设。德国是特别感兴趣的，因为德国在1923年经历了恶性通货膨胀，政府无法宣布未来会有更高的通货膨胀。因此，这种强调预期转变的解释是否适用于德国值得怀疑。第三个项目旨在找到另一种解释。