The Mathematical and Philosophical Foundations of Probability

概率的数学和哲学基础

• 批准号: DP0774343
• 负责人: Prof Alan Hajek
• 金额: $ 11.09万
• 依托单位: The Australian National University
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2007-07-01 至 2013-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP0774343
• 关键词: Mathematical; Philosophical; Foundations; Probability

We find probability wherever we find uncertainty: virtually everywhere in our lives. Probability is essential to almost every technology. High-stakes decisions are routinely made on the basis of probability judgments and risk assessment-for example, in engineering, medicine, agriculture, environmental management, urban planning, public policy, public health, the law, and in our national defence. And some of those decisions have been made badly because of poor probability estimates-witness the 1986 space shuttle disaster. Our current methodologies for using probability are inadequate. This project will make an important contribution to the collective enterprise of enhancing our understanding of probability and its myriad applications.

每当我们发现不确定性时，我们就会发现概率：几乎在我们的生活中无处不在。概率对于几乎所有技术来说都是至关重要的。高风险决策通常是在概率判断和风险评估的基础上做出的——例如，在工程、医学、农业、环境管理、城市规划、公共政策、公共卫生、法律和国防领域。其中一些决策的制定很糟糕，因为概率估计很差——1986 年的航天飞机灾难就是一个例子。我们目前使用概率的方法是不够的。该项目将为增强我们对概率及其无数应用的理解的集体事业做出重要贡献。