An integrated approach for the conservation of Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and tiger (Panthera tigris) under climate change: linking remote sensing, species distribution modelling and population models

气候变化下保护亚洲象（Elephas maximus）和老虎（Panthera tigris）的综合方法：将遥感、物种分布模型和种群模型联系起来

基本信息

批准号：
273837911
负责人：
Dr. Rajapandian Kanagaraj, Ph.D.
金额：
--
依托单位：
Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Fellowships
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2014-12-31 至 2017-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/273837911?language=en
关键词：
integrated approach conservation Asian elephant

项目摘要

Rapid global change poses grand challenges to ecologists and conservation biologists in their efforts to understand and predict the consequences of climate-induced changes on biodiversity. The vulnerability of species, especially of mammals, to climate-induced changes can be extensive as the response capacity of mammals may likely be surpassed by climate change. Besides climate change other multiple threats such as habitat loss and fragmentation and altered disturbance regimes and interactions between them can have adverse effects on species survival. In this project I will assess the impacts of climate change and other multiple threats on the spatial distribution and survival of two emblematic large mammals, Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and tiger (Panthera tigris), in the Terai Arc Landscape (TAL), located along the Himalayan foothills of India. These two species have been served as keystone species to generate worldwide conservation attention for Asian forest biodiversity. I will use an integrated hybrid modelling approach that links remote sensing, species distribution models (SDMs) and spatially explicit, population dynamics models. I will then investigate the sensitivity of my predictions with respect to various sources of uncertainty. More specifically, I will (1) develop SDMs for the two contrasting keystone species to predict their current distributions and that under climate change projections, (2) develop hybrid SDM - population models to assess the relative and combined effects of multiple threats (climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation, prey depletion) on species viability, (3) assess the uncertainties resulting from SDMs, uncertainty in demographic parameters, and climate change projections under a single modelling framework, and (4) design effective multispecies (i.e, elephant and tiger) conservation strategies and promote coordinated planning across the ranges of species. I will implement SDMs and population models for elephants based on an extensive dataset of elephant groups, age and sex structure available from 2002 to 2010 in the western part of TAL. The tiger hybrid model will be based on already existing SDMs, a dispersal model and other available knowledge on population dynamics. Quantifying the sources of uncertainty and understanding how it changes with species under study, especially for different keystone species of conservation concern is essential to develop integrated management options for policy makers. The inter-disciplinary perspective adopted by this study that integrates techniques and knowledge from animal ecology, landscape ecology, remote sensing and computational modelling is aimed at contributing to critical enquiry into the development and uncertainty aspects of this emerging (hybrid) SDM-population modelling framework. It will focus on the impacts of climate change and land-use change on the spatial distribution and survival of large mammals in human-dominated landscapes.

快速的全球变化为生态学家和保护生物学家构成了巨大的挑战，以理解和预测气候引起的生物多样性变化的后果。物种，尤其是哺乳动物的脆弱性可能会广泛，因为气候变化可能会超越哺乳动物的反应能力。除气候变化外，其他多种威胁（例如栖息地丧失和破碎化以及改变的干扰制度及其之间的相互作用）可能会对物种的生存产生不利影响。在这个项目中，我将评估气候变化和其他多重威胁对位于印度喜马拉雅山雀的Terai Arc Landscape（TAL）中两种具有标志性的大型哺乳动物（亚洲大象（Elephas Maximus）和Tiger（Panthera Tigris）的空间分布和存活的影响。这两个物种已被用作基石物种，以引起全球保护亚洲森林生物多样性的关注。我将使用一种集成的混合建模方法，该方法将遥感，物种分布模型（SDM）和空间显式，人口动态模型联系起来。然后，我将研究我对各种不确定性来源的预测的敏感性。更具体地说，我将（1）开发两个对比的基石物种来预测其当前分布，并在气候变化的预测下，（2）开发混合SDM-人口模型，以评估多种威胁的相对效果（气候变化，栖息地丧失，栖息地丧失，牺牲性，猎物deptiontion，prey deptiontion and demimation and demagriciate the Incoprication nime ofertions ins of s n offersiate sy sy s n osprapery of s n offection，在单个建模框架下的预测，以及（4）设计有效的多种物种（即大象和老虎）保护策略，并促进物种范围内的协调计划。我将根据大象群体的广泛数据集，2002年至2010年在TAL的西部提供的大象群体，年龄和性别结构的广泛数据集，为大象实施SDM和人口模型。老虎混合模型将基于已经存在的SDM，分散模型和其他有关人群动态的知识。量化不确定性的来源并了解其正在研究的物种如何变化，尤其是对于不同的保护关注物种，对于为决策者开发综合管理方案至关重要。这项研究采用的跨学科观点将动物生态学，景观生态学，遥感和计算建模的技术和知识整合在一起，旨在为对该新兴（混合）SDM群体种群模型建模框架的发展和不确定性方面的批判性进行批判性询问。它将着重于气候变化和土地利用变化对人类主导景观中大型哺乳动物的空间分布和存活的影响。