An integrated approach for the conservation of Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and tiger (Panthera tigris) under climate change: linking remote sensing, species distribution modelling and population models

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Rapid global change poses grand challenges to ecologists and conservation biologists in their efforts to understand and predict the consequences of climate-induced changes on biodiversity. The vulnerability of species, especially of mammals, to climate-induced changes can be extensive as the response capacity of mammals may likely be surpassed by climate change. Besides climate change other multiple threats such as habitat loss and fragmentation and altered disturbance regimes and interactions between them can have adverse effects on species survival. In this project I will assess the impacts of climate change and other multiple threats on the spatial distribution and survival of two emblematic large mammals, Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and tiger (Panthera tigris), in the Terai Arc Landscape (TAL), located along the Himalayan foothills of India. These two species have been served as keystone species to generate worldwide conservation attention for Asian forest biodiversity. I will use an integrated hybrid modelling approach that links remote sensing, species distribution models (SDMs) and spatially explicit, population dynamics models. I will then investigate the sensitivity of my predictions with respect to various sources of uncertainty. More specifically, I will (1) develop SDMs for the two contrasting keystone species to predict their current distributions and that under climate change projections, (2) develop hybrid SDM - population models to assess the relative and combined effects of multiple threats (climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation, prey depletion) on species viability, (3) assess the uncertainties resulting from SDMs, uncertainty in demographic parameters, and climate change projections under a single modelling framework, and (4) design effective multispecies (i.e, elephant and tiger) conservation strategies and promote coordinated planning across the ranges of species. I will implement SDMs and population models for elephants based on an extensive dataset of elephant groups, age and sex structure available from 2002 to 2010 in the western part of TAL. The tiger hybrid model will be based on already existing SDMs, a dispersal model and other available knowledge on population dynamics. Quantifying the sources of uncertainty and understanding how it changes with species under study, especially for different keystone species of conservation concern is essential to develop integrated management options for policy makers. The inter-disciplinary perspective adopted by this study that integrates techniques and knowledge from animal ecology, landscape ecology, remote sensing and computational modelling is aimed at contributing to critical enquiry into the development and uncertainty aspects of this emerging (hybrid) SDM-population modelling framework. It will focus on the impacts of climate change and land-use change on the spatial distribution and survival of large mammals in human-dominated landscapes.