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An integrated approach for the conservation of Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and tiger (Panthera tigris) under climate change: linking remote sensing, species distribution modelling and population models

气候变化下保护亚洲象（Elephas maximus）和老虎（Panthera tigris）的综合方法：将遥感、物种分布模型和种群模型联系起来

基本信息

批准号：
273837911
负责人：
Dr. Rajapandian Kanagaraj, Ph.D.
金额：
--
依托单位：
Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Fellowships
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2014-12-31 至 2017-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/273837911?language=en
关键词：
integrated approach conservation Asian elephant

项目摘要

Rapid global change poses grand challenges to ecologists and conservation biologists in their efforts to understand and predict the consequences of climate-induced changes on biodiversity. The vulnerability of species, especially of mammals, to climate-induced changes can be extensive as the response capacity of mammals may likely be surpassed by climate change. Besides climate change other multiple threats such as habitat loss and fragmentation and altered disturbance regimes and interactions between them can have adverse effects on species survival. In this project I will assess the impacts of climate change and other multiple threats on the spatial distribution and survival of two emblematic large mammals, Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and tiger (Panthera tigris), in the Terai Arc Landscape (TAL), located along the Himalayan foothills of India. These two species have been served as keystone species to generate worldwide conservation attention for Asian forest biodiversity. I will use an integrated hybrid modelling approach that links remote sensing, species distribution models (SDMs) and spatially explicit, population dynamics models. I will then investigate the sensitivity of my predictions with respect to various sources of uncertainty. More specifically, I will (1) develop SDMs for the two contrasting keystone species to predict their current distributions and that under climate change projections, (2) develop hybrid SDM - population models to assess the relative and combined effects of multiple threats (climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation, prey depletion) on species viability, (3) assess the uncertainties resulting from SDMs, uncertainty in demographic parameters, and climate change projections under a single modelling framework, and (4) design effective multispecies (i.e, elephant and tiger) conservation strategies and promote coordinated planning across the ranges of species. I will implement SDMs and population models for elephants based on an extensive dataset of elephant groups, age and sex structure available from 2002 to 2010 in the western part of TAL. The tiger hybrid model will be based on already existing SDMs, a dispersal model and other available knowledge on population dynamics. Quantifying the sources of uncertainty and understanding how it changes with species under study, especially for different keystone species of conservation concern is essential to develop integrated management options for policy makers. The inter-disciplinary perspective adopted by this study that integrates techniques and knowledge from animal ecology, landscape ecology, remote sensing and computational modelling is aimed at contributing to critical enquiry into the development and uncertainty aspects of this emerging (hybrid) SDM-population modelling framework. It will focus on the impacts of climate change and land-use change on the spatial distribution and survival of large mammals in human-dominated landscapes.

快速的全球变化对生态学家和保护生物学家提出了巨大的挑战，他们努力了解和预测气候引起的变化对生物多样性的后果。物种，特别是哺乳动物，对气候引起的变化的脆弱性可能是广泛的，因为哺乳动物的反应能力可能被气候变化超越。除气候变化外，其他多种威胁，如生境丧失和破碎化以及干扰状况的改变以及它们之间的相互作用，都可能对物种的生存产生不利影响。在这个项目中，我将评估气候变化和其他多重威胁的空间分布和两个象征性的大型哺乳动物，亚洲象（Elephas maximus）和老虎（Panthera tigris），在特莱弧景观（TAL），位于沿着印度喜马拉雅山麓的生存的影响。这两个物种已被作为关键物种，以引起全世界对亚洲森林生物多样性的保护关注。我将使用一个综合的混合建模方法，链接遥感，物种分布模型（SDM）和空间上明确的，人口动态模型。然后，我将研究我的预测对各种不确定性来源的敏感性。更具体地说，我将（1）为这两个对比的关键物种开发SDM，以预测其当前分布和气候变化预测下的分布，（2）开发混合SDM -种群模型，以评估多种威胁（气候变化、栖息地丧失和破碎化、猎物耗竭）对物种生存能力的相对和综合影响，（3）在单一模拟框架下评估可持续发展模型、人口参数的不确定性和气候变化预测造成的不确定性，以及（4）设计有效的多物种（如大象和老虎）保护战略，并促进跨物种范围的协调规划。我将实施SDM和大象的人口模型的基础上，从2002年到2010年在TAL西部的大象群体，年龄和性别结构的广泛的数据集。老虎混合模型将以现有的空间数据模型、扩散模型和其他现有的种群动态知识为基础。量化不确定性的来源，并了解它是如何随着所研究的物种，特别是不同的关键物种的保护关注的变化是至关重要的，为决策者制定综合管理方案。跨学科的角度通过本研究，整合技术和知识，从动物生态学，景观生态学，遥感和计算建模的目的是促进关键查询到这个新兴的（混合）空间数据管理人口建模框架的发展和不确定性方面。它将侧重于气候变化和土地使用变化对人类主导景观中大型哺乳动物的空间分布和生存的影响。