Europes freshwater under climate change: the effect of hydrological and thermal regime alterations, connectivity and species traits on vulnerability of freshwater environments

拟议的项目将加强我们对欧洲空间尺度上广泛的淡水分类群（植物、鱼类、软体动物、两栖动物、小龙虾和海龟）的气候变化影响的科学理解。核心问题是(i)考虑到水文和热制度的改变、水资源的人为压力、大坝和障碍物等扩散障碍以及物种特征，物种将如何应对气候变化；（ii）现实物种范围变化的适应性后果是什么；（iii）欧洲淡水环境对气候变化有多脆弱？这项拟议的研究将明确量化扩散障碍和物种特征对它们再定居能力的作用，并描述物种生理学中决定个体对气候变化反应的那些方面。在解决淡水环境的多种特性的综合分析框架内，包括河流网络的树突结构、栖息地破碎化和下游影响的传播，将评估脆弱性的以下三个组成部分：(1)外部暴露于气候变化，即在一系列情景下，到2100年每个集水区的热和水文制度将发生何种程度的变化；(2)对环境条件变化的内在敏感性，即淡水物种在集水区缺乏持续存在的潜力；(3)复原力，即应对气候变化的能力。对气候变化的生态影响进行建模需要使用多种建模技术以及大量的方法进步，特别是在物种分布建模方面。拟议的项目对维护淡水生物多样性和扩大我们对气候变化的地理和生物学的理解都很重要。

The proposed project will enhance our scientific understanding of climate change impacts across a broad range of freshwater taxa (plants, fishes, molluscs, amphibians, crayfish, and turtles) at the European spatial scale. The central questions are (i) how species will respond to climate change in view of the hydrological and thermal regime alterations, anthropogenic pressures on water resources, dispersal barriers such as dams and obstacles and species traits, (ii) what are the fitness consequences of realistic species range shifts and (iii) how vulnerable are the European freshwater environments to climate change? The proposed study will explicitly quantify the role of dispersal barriers and species traits on their recolonisation ability, and characterise those aspects of species physiology that determine individualistic responses to climate change. Within a comprehensive analysis framework addressing the multiple peculiarities of freshwater environments including dendritic structure of river networks, habitat fragmentation and downstream effects propagation, the following three components of the vulnerability will be assessed: (1) extrinsic exposure to climate change, i.e., the extent to which thermal and hydrological regimes in each catchment will change by 2100 for a range of scenarios; (2) intrinsic sensitivity to altered environmental conditions, i.e., the lack of potential for freshwater species to persist in a catchment, and; (3) resilience, i.e., ability to cope with climate change. Modelling the ecological effects of climate change requires use of a multitude of modelling techniques as well as substantial methodological advances, in particular in species distribution modelling. The proposed project has importance to both, maintaining freshwater biodiversity and broadening our understanding of the geography and the biology of climate change.