Europes freshwater under climate change: the effect of hydrological and thermal regime alterations, connectivity and species traits on vulnerability of freshwater environments

拟议的项目将提高我们对欧洲空间尺度上广泛的淡水类群（植物、鱼类、软体动物、两栖动物、小龙虾和海龟）的气候变化影响的科学认识。中心问题是（一）物种将如何应对气候变化的水文和热制度的改变，人为对水资源的压力，扩散障碍，如水坝和障碍和物种特征，（二）什么是健身现实的物种范围的变化和（iii）如何脆弱的欧洲淡水环境对气候变化的影响？这项拟议的研究将明确量化扩散障碍和物种特征对其繁殖能力的作用，并将确定个体对气候变化的反应的物种生理学的那些方面进行量化。在一个综合分析框架内，针对淡水环境的多种特殊性，包括河流网络的树枝状结构、生境破碎化和下游影响传播，将评估脆弱性的以下三个组成部分：（1）外部气候变化风险，即，到2100年，每个流域的热量和水文状况在一系列情景下将发生变化的程度;（2）对改变的环境条件的内在敏感性，即，缺乏淡水物种在集水区持续存在的潜力，以及;（3）恢复力，即，科普气候变化的能力。模拟气候变化的生态影响需要使用多种模拟技术以及方法上的重大进展，特别是在物种分布模拟方面。拟议的项目对维护淡水生物多样性和扩大我们对气候变化的地理和生物学的理解都很重要。

The proposed project will enhance our scientific understanding of climate change impacts across a broad range of freshwater taxa (plants, fishes, molluscs, amphibians, crayfish, and turtles) at the European spatial scale. The central questions are (i) how species will respond to climate change in view of the hydrological and thermal regime alterations, anthropogenic pressures on water resources, dispersal barriers such as dams and obstacles and species traits, (ii) what are the fitness consequences of realistic species range shifts and (iii) how vulnerable are the European freshwater environments to climate change? The proposed study will explicitly quantify the role of dispersal barriers and species traits on their recolonisation ability, and characterise those aspects of species physiology that determine individualistic responses to climate change. Within a comprehensive analysis framework addressing the multiple peculiarities of freshwater environments including dendritic structure of river networks, habitat fragmentation and downstream effects propagation, the following three components of the vulnerability will be assessed: (1) extrinsic exposure to climate change, i.e., the extent to which thermal and hydrological regimes in each catchment will change by 2100 for a range of scenarios; (2) intrinsic sensitivity to altered environmental conditions, i.e., the lack of potential for freshwater species to persist in a catchment, and; (3) resilience, i.e., ability to cope with climate change. Modelling the ecological effects of climate change requires use of a multitude of modelling techniques as well as substantial methodological advances, in particular in species distribution modelling. The proposed project has importance to both, maintaining freshwater biodiversity and broadening our understanding of the geography and the biology of climate change.