A paradigm shift for predictions of freshwater harmful cyanobacteria blooms

该项目旨在推进模型预测，以对淡水有害蓝藻水华的触发因素产生新的见解。目前的模型不能很好地适应这一目的，因为它们未能考虑到之前的环境强迫。该项目有望通过模拟单个蓝藻细胞、菌落或细丝对温度、光照和营养历史的适应性反应，创造关于蓝藻动态的新知识。三项实地研究将被用来验证一个新的基于个人的模型。该项目的成果对于管理在气候变暖中越来越容易发生水华的淡水生态系统以及测试适当的缓解和控制战略将是有价值的。

This project aims to advance model predictions to generate novel insights into the triggers of freshwater harmful cyanobacteria blooms. Current models are poorly adapted for this purpose because they fail to account for antecedent environmental forcing. The project is expected to create new knowledge of cyanobacteria dynamics from simulating the adaptive responses of individual cyanobacteria cells, colonies or filaments to temperature, light and nutrient history. Three field studies will be used to validate a new individual based model. The outcomes of this project will be valuable for managing freshwater ecosystems that are increasingly subject to blooms in a warming climate, and for testing suitable mitigation and control strategies.