A paradigm shift for predictions of freshwater harmful cyanobacteria blooms

该项目旨在推进模型预测，以产生对淡水有害蓝藻水华触发因素的新见解。目前的模式是不适合这一目的，因为他们没有考虑到前期的环境强迫。该项目有望通过模拟单个蓝藻细胞、菌落或丝状体对温度、光照和营养历史的适应性反应，创造蓝藻动力学的新知识。将使用三项实地研究来验证新的基于个体的模型。该项目的成果对于管理在气候变暖中日益受到水华影响的淡水生态系统以及测试适当的缓解和控制战略将是有价值的。

This project aims to advance model predictions to generate novel insights into the triggers of freshwater harmful cyanobacteria blooms. Current models are poorly adapted for this purpose because they fail to account for antecedent environmental forcing. The project is expected to create new knowledge of cyanobacteria dynamics from simulating the adaptive responses of individual cyanobacteria cells, colonies or filaments to temperature, light and nutrient history. Three field studies will be used to validate a new individual based model. The outcomes of this project will be valuable for managing freshwater ecosystems that are increasingly subject to blooms in a warming climate, and for testing suitable mitigation and control strategies.